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BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 17, 2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on December 17, 2010

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on December 16, 2010:

Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
1 2 Boston Celtics 21 4 0.840 3.39 9 8 -6.76 1 1 10.14
2 1 Miami Heat 19 8 0.704 4.41 6 4 -4.91 5 5 9.32
3 3 San Antonio Spurs 22 3 0.880 5.47 3 3 -2.82 9 9 8.29
4 5 Los Angeles Lakers 19 7 0.731 5.51 2 2 -1.33 12 12 6.85
5 4 Dallas Mavericks 20 5 0.800 2.25 11 12 -3.52 8 4 5.77
6 11 Chicago Bulls 16 8 0.667 -1.83 19 22 -6.69 2 7 4.85
7 7 Utah Jazz 18 8 0.692 3.58 7 7 -0.82 14 10 4.40
8 6 Orlando Magic 16 9 0.640 -0.02 14 15 -3.84 6 3 3.81
9 10 Denver Nuggets 15 10 0.600 4.55 4 11 1.25 18 13 3.30
10 13 Oklahoma City Thunder 18 8 0.692 3.55 8 6 1.38 19 19 2.17
11 8 New Orleans Hornets 15 10 0.600 -3.37 23 20 -5.34 3 2 1.97
12 12 Atlanta Hawks 16 11 0.593 1.33 12 10 0.29 16 16 1.05
13 9 Indiana Pacers 11 13 0.458 -2.82 21 17 -3.70 7 8 0.87
14 14 Portland Trail Blazers 12 14 0.462 -0.45 15 14 -0.91 13 11 0.46
15 15 Houston Rockets 10 15 0.400 3.25 10 9 2.96 21 20 0.29
Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
16 16 New York Knickerbockers 16 10 0.615 4.48 5 5 4.26 26 25 0.22
17 18 Philadelphia 76ers 10 15 0.400 -1.23 16 16 -1.36 11 15 0.13
18 20 Memphis Grizzlies 12 14 0.462 -1.81 18 18 -1.76 10 17 -0.06
19 19 Milwaukee Bucks 10 14 0.417 -5.46 30 30 -5.32 4 6 -0.14
20 17 Phoenix Suns 12 12 0.500 5.87 1 1 6.41 30 30 -0.53
21 22 Toronto Raptors 9 17 0.346 1.17 13 13 4.56 29 21 -3.39
22 21 Charlotte Bobcats 9 16 0.360 -4.70 26 21 -0.46 15 14 -4.23
23 23 Golden State Warriors 9 16 0.360 -1.63 17 19 3.13 22 26 -4.76
24 24 New Jersey Nets 7 19 0.269 -4.79 28 27 0.74 17 18 -5.53
25 27 Detroit Pistons 8 18 0.308 -1.97 20 25 4.25 25 27 -6.22
26 25 Los Angeles Clippers 5 21 0.192 -3.55 24 23 2.77 20 23 -6.32
27 26 Minnesota Timberwolves 6 20 0.231 -2.98 22 26 3.69 24 22 -6.67
28 28 Washington Wizards 6 18 0.250 -4.23 25 24 4.36 27 29 -8.59
29 29 Sacramento Kings 5 18 0.217 -5.36 29 29 3.49 23 24 -8.85
30 30 Cleveland Cavaliers 7 18 0.280 -4.72 27 28 4.42 28 28 -9.14
HCA 3.48
LgRtg 107.53

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

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7 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 17, 2010)”

  1. huevonkiller Says:

    The Celtics start off hot the last few years. 22-5 last year I believe.

    However this season, I think age and LeBron will eventually catch up to them.

  2. DSMok1 Says:

    I'd still like to see the adjustment for rest days sometime... :-)

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    My bad, totally forgot about that (although in fairness, I was on vacation this past week). I'll try to get to it sometime over the next few weeks.

  4. Greyberger Says:

    This is a week for agreement. These rankings and the Hollinger set (as of Saturday afternoon) have the same teams one through six in slightly different order. BBstats' NBA Rankings isn't far off the conventional wisdom, rating the Bulls lower and the Magic higher.

    I dig automated rankings. Are there any other prominent/good systems that I didn't mention?

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    You should probably throw Andrew Dolphin (co-author of The Book) in there, too:

    http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/nba/

  6. Greyberger Says:

    The Dolphin Rankings (sorting by predictive) fits right in with the others. Dolphin, Hollinger and BBR.com like the same top six. The disagreement in the schedule-adjusted differential schemes is in what it looks like below the Bulls, and whether there's a precipitous drop-off before seven.

    BBStats Rankings typically match what I see here, it must use generally the same inputs.

  7. DSMok1 Says:

    I just completed an algorithm of my own for ranking teams. Here's how they look, through games of 12/20:

    Team	Off	Def	Margin	Pace
    BOS	3.6	-6.9	10.5	90.4
    MIA	4.1	-4.4	8.5	90.5
    LAL	6.6	-1.0	7.6	92.6
    SAS	5.5	-2.1	7.5	92.2
    DAL	1.8	-4.4	6.2	91.0
    UTA	4.9	-0.5	5.4	89.9
    CHI	-2.7	-7.3	4.6	91.6
    DEN	4.2	1.6	2.6	96.1
    NOH	-2.0	-3.8	1.8	90.4
    ORL	-0.4	-2.2	1.8	90.7
    OKC	3.8	2.1	1.7	92.5
    POR	1.0	-0.3	1.3	87.4
    MEM	-1.5	-2.5	1.1	92.4
    ATL	0.7	-0.3	1.0	90.0
    PHI	-1.0	-1.9	0.9	91.3
    HOU	3.2	2.3	0.8	93.6
    NYK	3.1	2.9	0.3	96.0
    PHO	5.9	5.8	0.1	94.7
    IND	-3.4	-2.5	-0.9	94.0
    MIL	-7.9	-4.8	-3.1	90.1
    TOR	1.1	4.7	-3.5	93.5
    LAC	-2.0	1.6	-3.6	90.9
    GSW	-0.3	4.0	-4.3	94.2
    CHA	-4.8	-0.4	-4.4	89.7
    NJN	-5.0	0.1	-5.2	89.3
    MIN	-2.0	3.9	-5.9	97.4
    DET	-1.2	5.3	-6.5	88.4
    WAS	-3.7	3.6	-7.3	93.4
    CLE	-6.2	3.0	-9.2	92.5
    SAC	-5.2	4.5	-9.7	91.6

    Differences from Neil's: I included the effect of rest days, and minimized the residuals^1.5, rather than squared residuals.