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BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 24, 2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on December 24, 2010

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on December 23, 2010:

Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
1 1 Boston Celtics 23 4 0.852 3.03 10 9 -6.72 2 1 9.74
2 2 Miami Heat 22 9 0.710 3.82 5 6 -5.59 3 5 9.40
3 3 San Antonio Spurs 25 4 0.862 6.14 1 3 -1.18 11 9 7.32
4 5 Dallas Mavericks 23 5 0.821 2.70 11 11 -3.91 6 8 6.62
5 4 Los Angeles Lakers 21 8 0.724 5.38 3 2 -1.05 12 12 6.43
6 6 Chicago Bulls 18 9 0.667 -1.10 16 19 -6.91 1 2 5.80
7 7 Utah Jazz 21 9 0.700 3.52 6 7 -0.25 15 14 3.78
8 8 Orlando Magic 17 12 0.586 0.01 15 14 -3.53 7 6 3.54
9 11 New Orleans Hornets 17 12 0.586 -2.01 19 23 -5.04 4 3 3.03
10 9 Denver Nuggets 16 11 0.593 4.85 4 4 1.88 20 18 2.97
11 10 Oklahoma City Thunder 20 10 0.667 3.17 9 8 1.00 18 19 2.17
12 15 Houston Rockets 14 15 0.483 3.33 7 10 2.08 21 21 1.24
13 14 Portland Trail Blazers 15 14 0.517 0.50 14 15 -0.50 13 13 1.00
14 12 Atlanta Hawks 19 12 0.613 0.66 13 12 -0.30 14 16 0.97
15 13 Indiana Pacers 13 14 0.481 -3.02 24 21 -3.52 8 7 0.51
Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
16 16 New York Knickerbockers 17 12 0.586 3.30 8 5 3.67 25 26 -0.36
17 19 Milwaukee Bucks 12 16 0.429 -5.38 28 30 -4.98 5 4 -0.40
18 20 Phoenix Suns 13 15 0.464 5.39 2 1 5.92 30 30 -0.53
19 17 Philadelphia 76ers 11 18 0.379 -2.03 20 16 -1.34 10 11 -0.69
20 18 Memphis Grizzlies 12 17 0.414 -2.11 21 18 -1.40 9 10 -0.71
21 26 Los Angeles Clippers 8 22 0.267 -2.78 23 24 1.52 19 20 -4.30
22 23 Golden State Warriors 10 18 0.357 -1.13 17 17 3.40 24 22 -4.52
23 21 Toronto Raptors 10 19 0.345 0.94 12 13 5.52 29 29 -4.58
24 24 New Jersey Nets 9 21 0.300 -4.12 26 28 0.81 17 17 -4.93
25 25 Detroit Pistons 10 19 0.345 -1.33 18 20 4.26 28 25 -5.59
26 22 Charlotte Bobcats 9 19 0.321 -5.75 29 26 0.38 16 15 -6.12
27 27 Minnesota Timberwolves 6 24 0.200 -2.43 22 22 4.26 27 24 -6.69
28 28 Washington Wizards 7 20 0.259 -3.88 25 25 3.02 23 27 -6.91
29 30 Cleveland Cavaliers 8 21 0.276 -4.78 27 27 3.97 26 28 -8.75
30 29 Sacramento Kings 5 22 0.185 -6.34 30 29 2.67 22 23 -9.01
HCA 3.44
LgRtg 107.31

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

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11 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 24, 2010)”

  1. DSMok1 Says:

    Rest day-adjusted, minimizing residuals^1.5

    Team	Off	Def	Pace	Eff. Margin
    BOS	2.89	-7.19	-1.55	10.07
    MIA	3.86	-5.09	-1.45	8.95
    LAL	6.38	-0.52	0.39	6.90
    SAS	5.45	-1.07	0.26	6.53
    DAL	2.44	-4.07	-0.91	6.51
    CHI	-2.23	-7.70	-0.32	5.47
    UTA	4.72	-0.28	-2.02	5.00
    DEN	4.70	1.79	4.17	2.91
    NOH	-1.10	-3.39	-1.50	2.29
    ORL	0.03	-2.03	-1.09	2.06
    OKC	3.71	1.72	0.40	1.99
    ATL	1.40	0.09	-1.98	1.31
    HOU	3.09	1.84	1.65	1.25
    POR	1.02	-0.15	-4.53	1.16
    NYK	3.31	2.57	4.05	0.74
    MEM	-1.73	-2.17	0.51	0.45
    PHI	-1.50	-1.94	-0.59	0.44
    PHO	5.31	5.80	2.82	-0.49
    IND	-3.32	-2.41	2.01	-0.91
    MIL	-7.77	-6.05	-2.13	-1.73
    GSW	-0.07	3.79	2.41	-3.86
    LAC	-2.84	1.32	-1.04	-4.16
    TOR	0.49	5.02	1.53	-4.53
    CHA	-4.96	-0.31	-2.38	-4.65
    NJN	-4.30	0.69	-2.43	-4.99
    MIN	-1.56	4.06	5.48	-5.62
    DET	-0.97	4.78	-3.52	-5.74
    WAS	-4.08	3.40	1.41	-7.48
    CLE	-5.99	3.46	0.54	-9.45
    SAC	-6.39	4.02	-0.20	-10.41

    Question: Neil, do you minimize the residual of the efficiency, or the residual of the efficiencies and the margin? I'm minimizing the residual of each efficiency ^1.5 and the residual of the efficiency margin *4 ^1.5.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    I'm just minimizing the sum of the squared errors for each efficiency. So the error term for each game is:

    (actual home rtg - home rtg predicted from SRS)^2 + (actual away rtg - away rtg predicted from SRS)^2

    Then I minimize the average error per game, weighted by the # of possessions in each game. You have to do it that way to get the numbers to be centered around the actual league average pts/100 poss.

  3. DSMok1 Says:

    I think your rankings will be more indicative of overall team strength if you also minimize the errors of the overall margin. You might look into that.

  4. danny95207 Says:

    Hope Sacramento will get better ranking

  5. dsong Says:

    Well, at least the Lakers are improving; a 16-point thumping at home vs. the Miami Heat after a 19-point shellacking at home vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.

    I guess the Lakers are pulling their usual Randy Moss act and play when they feel like it. Kinda frustrating to see them treat every game like a preseason game until the playoffs, but hey, as long as they win championships they'll be forgiven.

  6. kelfala m Says:

    It's great to see the miami heat on the rise they have too much talent to fail. Boston is doing great as well. I wonder who would be on top after the season is over.

  7. cbobcat3 Says:

    Is there a place/way to go and look at how a team's SRS has changed after each game? For instance...the Bobcats SRS after their 1st game, 10th game, etc?

  8. DSMok1 Says:

    @ Cbobcat3

    Here's something similar to what you'd like: it's Charlotte's performances in each game, adjusted for opponent, rest, and location. Whether the game was a win or not is also indicated with the darker bars: http://picasaweb.google.com/118396169256157940063/APBRCharts#5556489894993116242

  9. cbobcat3 Says:

    Thanks DSMok1...does the adj eff relate to SRS? What does the blue line represent...trend?

  10. DSMok1 Says:

    It's similar to what Neil is doing here, not SRS (which is based on points rather than efficiency). But the effect is the same. I also included rest compensation.

    The blue line does represent trend.

  11. Ben Says:

    D.S. Mok, how big is the HCA and rest day adjustment in your rankings?