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BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 31, 2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on December 31, 2010

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on December 30, 2010:

Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
1 2 Miami Heat 25 9 0.735 4.42 5 5 -5.32 3 3 9.74
2 1 Boston Celtics 24 6 0.800 2.32 10 10 -6.48 2 2 8.80
3 3 San Antonio Spurs 28 4 0.875 5.36 2 1 -2.42 9 11 7.78
4 5 Los Angeles Lakers 22 10 0.688 4.53 4 3 -1.47 11 12 5.99
5 4 Dallas Mavericks 24 7 0.774 1.64 11 11 -4.25 5 6 5.89
6 6 Chicago Bulls 20 10 0.667 -1.63 19 16 -7.09 1 1 5.45
7 8 Orlando Magic 21 12 0.636 0.42 14 15 -4.13 6 7 4.55
8 7 Utah Jazz 22 11 0.667 3.33 8 6 0.20 15 15 3.13
9 10 Denver Nuggets 18 13 0.581 4.72 3 4 2.02 19 20 2.70
10 11 Oklahoma City Thunder 22 11 0.667 3.20 9 9 1.05 17 18 2.15
11 9 New Orleans Hornets 18 14 0.563 -2.24 22 19 -4.03 7 4 1.79
12 14 Atlanta Hawks 21 13 0.618 0.89 12 13 -0.61 14 14 1.49
13 12 Houston Rockets 15 16 0.484 3.78 6 7 2.65 22 21 1.14
14 13 Portland Trail Blazers 17 16 0.515 0.16 15 14 -0.68 13 13 0.85
15 16 New York Knickerbockers 18 14 0.563 3.49 7 8 3.32 25 25 0.17
Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
16 20 Memphis Grizzlies 14 18 0.438 -2.40 23 21 -2.17 10 9 -0.22
17 19 Philadelphia 76ers 13 19 0.406 -1.31 18 20 -0.94 12 10 -0.36
18 15 Indiana Pacers 13 17 0.433 -3.98 25 24 -2.85 8 8 -1.13
19 18 Phoenix Suns 13 17 0.433 5.75 1 2 6.96 30 30 -1.20
20 17 Milwaukee Bucks 12 18 0.400 -5.89 29 28 -4.54 4 5 -1.35
21 22 Golden State Warriors 12 19 0.387 -0.39 16 17 3.28 24 24 -3.68
22 23 Toronto Raptors 11 20 0.355 0.52 13 12 4.49 29 29 -3.97
23 21 Los Angeles Clippers 10 23 0.303 -2.19 21 23 2.14 20 19 -4.33
24 25 Detroit Pistons 11 21 0.344 -0.60 17 18 4.12 26 28 -4.72
25 24 New Jersey Nets 9 23 0.281 -4.35 26 26 1.23 18 17 -5.58
26 27 Minnesota Timberwolves 8 25 0.242 -1.66 20 22 4.29 28 27 -5.95
27 26 Charlotte Bobcats 11 19 0.367 -5.25 28 29 0.71 16 16 -5.97
28 28 Washington Wizards 8 22 0.267 -3.79 24 25 2.20 21 23 -5.99
29 30 Sacramento Kings 6 23 0.207 -5.93 30 30 2.96 23 22 -8.89
30 29 Cleveland Cavaliers 8 24 0.250 -4.98 27 27 4.21 27 26 -9.20
HCA 3.47
LgRtg 107.20

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

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4 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 31, 2010)”

  1. Neil Paine Says:

    Btw, minimizing the margin in the ratings like DSMOk suggested last week actually didn't change them at all:

    team_id offense defense overall
    MIA 4.42 -5.32 9.74
    BOS 2.32 -6.48 8.80
    SAS 5.36 -2.42 7.78
    LAL 4.53 -1.47 5.99
    DAL 1.64 -4.25 5.89
    CHI -1.63 -7.09 5.45
    ORL 0.42 -4.13 4.55
    UTA 3.33 0.20 3.13
    DEN 4.72 2.02 2.70
    OKC 3.20 1.05 2.15
    NOH -2.24 -4.03 1.79
    ATL 0.89 -0.61 1.49
    HOU 3.78 2.65 1.14
    POR 0.16 -0.68 0.85
    NYK 3.49 3.32 0.17
    MEM -2.40 -2.17 -0.22
    PHI -1.31 -0.94 -0.36
    IND -3.98 -2.85 -1.13
    PHO 5.75 6.96 -1.20
    MIL -5.89 -4.54 -1.35
    GSW -0.39 3.28 -3.68
    TOR 0.52 4.49 -3.97
    LAC -2.19 2.14 -4.33
    DET -0.60 4.12 -4.72
    NJN -4.35 1.23 -5.58
    MIN -1.66 4.29 -5.95
    CHA -5.25 0.71 -5.97
    WAS -3.79 2.20 -5.99
    SAC -5.93 2.96 -8.89
    CLE -4.98 4.21 -9.20

    This was using an exponent of 2... I didn't have time to re-arrange the spreadsheet so that I wasn't raising a negative # to the 1.5 power.

  2. Stuart Chuang Matthews Says:

    Come the end of each season, what is the percent chance a team will win a championship based on their position in this ranking?

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Re: #2 - Steps to determine this:

    1. Regress to end-of-season ratings by adding 413 possessions of rating 0.00

    2. Convert eff. diff. ratings to SRS by multiplying by 92.53/100

    3. Convert SRS to WPct using WPct = 0.51419884 + 0.035212338*SRS + 0.00000026073081*SRS^5 + 0.000052608571*SRS^4 - 0.000039551538*SRS^3 - 0.00000035817527*SRS^6 - 0.0021272644*SRS^2

    4. Determine stdev of NBA talent = 0.144 (reference)

    5. Estimate each team's true wpct talent using (0.5 / 0.144^2 + wpct / stdev^2)/(1 / 0.144^2 + 1 / stdev^2), where stdev = (SQRT((wins + losses) * wpct * (1 - wpct))) / (wins + losses)

    6. Simulate rest of season 1000 times using talent estimates

    The results:

    team_id Champs Finals
    MIA 34.3% 48.3%
    BOS 22.5% 34.0%
    SAS 15.2% 34.0%
    LAL 8.0% 21.3%
    DAL 6.5% 16.7%
    CHI 3.4% 7.6%
    ORL 2.6% 6.3%
    UTA 1.7% 8.2%
    OKC 1.5% 6.0%
    DEN 1.4% 6.2%
    ATL 1.1% 1.9%
    NOH 0.6% 3.9%
    POR 0.5% 1.7%
    HOU 0.3% 1.4%
    PHI 0.2% 0.7%
    NYK 0.1% 1.0%
    IND 0.1% 0.1%
    MEM 0.0% 0.5%
    MIL 0.0% 0.1%
    PHO 0.0% 0.1%
    NJN 0.0% 0.0%
    TOR 0.0% 0.0%
    CLE 0.0% 0.0%
    DET 0.0% 0.0%
    CHA 0.0% 0.0%
    WAS 0.0% 0.0%
    MIN 0.0% 0.0%
    GSW 0.0% 0.0%
    LAC 0.0% 0.0%
    SAC 0.0% 0.0%
  4. Greyberger Says:

    In the West, Spurs say, "get behind me, devil." The other storyline is the delayed emergence of a legit fourth place - surely Utah OKC or Denver will move up from the pack and closer to the top teams.

    Not too early for me to say since I don't care much about the East - we probably have our four home court teams and the rest of the season is about five through eight and who gets what spot.