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Biggest Team Factor Declines

Posted by Neil Paine on January 24, 2011

This morning, Zach Lowe of SI.com's must-read Point Forward blog emailed me wondering how Utah's collapse in defensive rebounding % ranks among all-time declines. That got me wondering about the biggest drop-offs in all of the Four Factors, so I ran Z-scores on each team's numbers and looked at the biggest negative changes from one year to the next:

Offensive Effective FG%

Year Team z_eFG% Prev Diff
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers -1.717 1.595 -3.312
1989 Boston Celtics 0.559 2.946 -2.387
1998 Golden State Warriors -2.379 -0.015 -2.364
1997 Orlando Magic -0.713 1.507 -2.220
1997 San Antonio Spurs -1.203 0.852 -2.055
1977 Buffalo Braves -0.914 1.135 -2.049
1976 Chicago Bulls -2.844 -0.822 -2.022
2010 New Jersey Nets -2.175 -0.154 -2.021
2001 Detroit Pistons -1.141 0.860 -2.001
1975 Atlanta Hawks -1.553 0.386 -1.939


Offensive Turnover %

Year Team z_TOV% prev Diff
1992 Denver Nuggets -1.455 2.021 -3.476
1993 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.140 1.268 -3.409
2000 Chicago Bulls -3.150 -0.433 -2.718
1994 Chicago Bulls -0.332 2.093 -2.425
2006 New York Knickerbockers -2.611 -0.188 -2.423
2008 Sacramento Kings -1.688 0.733 -2.421
2003 Denver Nuggets -2.364 -0.001 -2.363
2000 Phoenix Suns -0.823 1.502 -2.326
2004 Washington Wizards -1.538 0.751 -2.290
1997 New York Knickerbockers -2.459 -0.219 -2.240

Offensive Rebound %

Year Team z_ORB% prev Diff
1989 Dallas Mavericks -1.430 2.095 -3.525
1983 Houston Rockets -1.144 2.278 -3.423
1999 Chicago Bulls -1.317 2.028 -3.345
1994 Detroit Pistons -1.587 1.105 -2.692
2004 Golden State Warriors -0.119 2.550 -2.669
1993 San Antonio Spurs -1.701 0.566 -2.267
1990 Golden State Warriors -2.061 0.160 -2.220
2008 Orlando Magic -1.262 0.954 -2.216
1984 Indiana Pacers -2.045 0.110 -2.155
2002 Detroit Pistons -1.639 0.496 -2.136

Offensive FT/FGA

Year Team z_FT/FGA prev Diff
2009 Los Angeles Clippers -1.596 1.276 -2.872
2001 Detroit Pistons 0.149 2.669 -2.520
1998 Golden State Warriors -1.559 0.948 -2.508
1992 Atlanta Hawks -1.176 1.265 -2.441
2010 Milwaukee Bucks -2.016 0.143 -2.159
1987 Utah Jazz -1.429 0.599 -2.029
2002 Washington Wizards -0.264 1.671 -1.935
2006 Phoenix Suns -2.998 -1.074 -1.924
2005 Golden State Warriors -2.024 -0.113 -1.911
2010 Philadelphia 76ers -1.041 0.815 -1.856

Defensive Effective FG%

Year Team z_deFG% prev Diff
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers -2.231 1.153 -3.384
1979 Boston Celtics -1.969 1.320 -3.289
2007 Memphis Grizzlies -2.104 1.125 -3.230
2004 Sacramento Kings -0.737 2.336 -3.073
1979 Cleveland Cavaliers -1.596 1.329 -2.925
1997 San Antonio Spurs -1.220 1.616 -2.836
1996 Charlotte Hornets -1.815 0.968 -2.783
2010 Detroit Pistons -1.591 0.897 -2.488
2003 Philadelphia 76ers -1.144 1.305 -2.448
1977 Milwaukee Bucks -1.295 1.109 -2.403

Defensive Turnover %

Year Team z_dTOV% prev Diff
1984 San Diego Clippers -1.541 1.407 -2.948
1976 Washington Bullets -0.928 1.769 -2.697
2007 Charlotte Bobcats 0.658 3.260 -2.603
2004 Orlando Magic -1.460 0.952 -2.411
2005 Los Angeles Lakers -2.302 0.107 -2.408
1999 Boston Celtics 0.815 3.212 -2.397
2003 Atlanta Hawks -1.762 0.496 -2.257
2007 New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets -1.431 0.681 -2.113
1990 New York Knickerbockers -0.428 1.657 -2.084
1995 Dallas Mavericks -0.800 1.158 -1.957

Defensive Rebound %

Year Team z_DRB% prev Diff
2007 Milwaukee Bucks -2.346 0.944 -3.290
1988 San Antonio Spurs -1.959 0.778 -2.737
1985 New York Knickerbockers -1.983 0.605 -2.588
1979 New Orleans Jazz -1.730 0.840 -2.570
1983 Golden State Warriors -1.152 1.274 -2.426
2011 Utah Jazz -1.361 1.001 -2.362
1985 Cleveland Cavaliers -0.090 2.192 -2.282
2004 Denver Nuggets -1.096 1.129 -2.225
2000 Dallas Mavericks -2.673 -0.475 -2.199
1980 Houston Rockets -1.695 0.412 -2.108

Defensive FT/FGA

Year Team z_dFT/FGA prev Diff
1998 Boston Celtics -3.215 -0.221 -2.993
2004 Utah Jazz -3.615 -1.160 -2.455
1998 Denver Nuggets -1.344 1.077 -2.421
2004 Memphis Grizzlies -0.896 1.412 -2.308
2009 Milwaukee Bucks -2.923 -0.651 -2.271
2001 Orlando Magic -2.041 0.183 -2.224
1989 San Antonio Spurs -1.693 0.429 -2.121
2008 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.336 0.782 -2.118
2010 Toronto Raptors -0.819 1.260 -2.078
2011 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.694 0.348 -2.042

A few 2011 teams on these lists... For those still doubting LeBron James' overall impact, note that his departure from Cleveland coincided with the biggest declines in both offensive and defensive shooting effectiveness by a team since 1974! Also, there's Utah with the 6th-biggest drop-off in DRB% relative to the league, and the T-Wolves with the 10th-biggest decline in opponent FT/FGA.

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52 Responses to “Biggest Team Factor Declines”

  1. mike Says:

    i dont get why you dont understand what i am saying. i never once said he WASNT responsible for nearly every single win. i am saying we cannot reach that conclusion by comparing metrics from last year to this year, and only pointing to one factor (lebron leaving) as being the only reason for that huge difference when multiple factors are in play. I AM NOT ARGUING THE CONCLUSION! lol i have an issue with the analysis which is incomplete. thats all.

  2. Genius Says:

    The differential comparison of using last year's team with LBJ on/off court is then what you seek. Yet you continue to bang your head against a spikes.

    Cavs LAST YEAR NOT THIS YEAR:
    +11 with LBJ on - championship contender
    -5 with him off - worst team in the NBA

    The Heat this year:
    + 11 with LBJ on - you know the drill.
    +1.3 with LBJ off - not terrible, still a playoff team.

    But it's NOT the Lakers:
    +8.2 with Kobe on - you know the drill by now, I hope?
    +8.3 with Kobe off - you definitely know the drill, championship contending team.