You Are Here > > BBR Blog > NBA and College Basketball Analysis

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed. // Sports Reference

For more from Neil, check out his new work at

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 18, 2011)

Posted by Neil Paine on March 18, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on March 17, 2011:

Rank Prev Team Cnf Div W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
1 2 Los Angeles Lakers W P 48 20 0.706 4.38 2 2 -2.76 8 8 7.14
2 3 Miami Heat E SE 46 22 0.676 3.81 4 6 -3.30 6 7 7.12
3 4 Chicago Bulls E C 49 18 0.731 -0.12 15 18 -6.98 1 1 6.86
4 1 San Antonio Spurs W SW 54 13 0.806 3.81 5 4 -2.82 7 6 6.62
5 5 Boston Celtics E A 48 18 0.727 -0.15 17 14 -6.50 2 2 6.35
6 6 Orlando Magic E SE 43 26 0.623 1.29 11 11 -4.13 4 4 5.42
7 8 Denver Nuggets W NW 41 27 0.603 5.23 1 1 0.84 17 17 4.39
8 7 Dallas Mavericks W SW 48 20 0.706 3.13 8 8 -1.21 12 12 4.34
9 9 Oklahoma City Thunder W NW 44 23 0.657 3.77 6 5 0.03 16 16 3.74
10 10 New Orleans Hornets W SW 40 30 0.571 -1.40 22 22 -3.63 5 5 2.23
11 12 Houston Rockets W SW 35 34 0.507 3.92 3 3 2.01 21 22 1.91
12 11 Memphis Grizzlies W SW 37 32 0.536 -0.12 16 16 -1.96 9 9 1.84
13 14 Portland Trail Blazers W NW 39 29 0.574 1.07 12 12 -0.51 14 14 1.58
14 13 Philadelphia 76ers E A 35 33 0.515 -0.47 18 17 -1.70 10 10 1.23
15 15 New York Knickerbockers E A 35 32 0.522 3.72 7 7 2.88 25 23 0.84
Rank Prev Team Cnf Div W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
16 17 Atlanta Hawks E SE 39 29 0.574 -0.64 19 19 -0.63 13 13 -0.01
17 16 Phoenix Suns W P 33 33 0.500 2.25 9 9 2.55 23 26 -0.30
18 18 Utah Jazz W NW 36 33 0.522 1.48 10 10 2.60 24 20 -1.11
19 19 Milwaukee Bucks E C 26 41 0.388 -6.29 30 30 -4.74 3 3 -1.55
20 20 Indiana Pacers E C 29 39 0.426 -2.90 24 24 -1.28 11 11 -1.62
21 22 Golden State Warriors W P 30 38 0.441 1.05 13 13 3.80 27 27 -2.75
22 21 Los Angeles Clippers W P 26 43 0.377 -1.23 21 21 1.75 20 19 -2.98
23 23 Charlotte Bobcats E SE 28 39 0.418 -4.12 25 25 -0.09 15 15 -4.03
24 24 Detroit Pistons E C 24 44 0.353 0.17 14 15 4.79 28 28 -4.62
25 25 Minnesota Timberwolves W NW 17 52 0.246 -2.78 23 23 2.52 22 24 -5.30
26 26 Sacramento Kings W P 16 50 0.242 -4.18 26 27 1.69 18 18 -5.87
27 27 New Jersey Nets E A 22 44 0.333 -4.20 27 26 1.74 19 21 -5.95
28 28 Toronto Raptors E A 18 49 0.269 -0.74 20 20 5.71 30 30 -6.45
29 29 Washington Wizards E SE 16 50 0.242 -5.05 28 28 3.05 26 25 -8.10
30 30 Cleveland Cavaliers E C 13 54 0.194 -5.34 29 29 5.25 29 29 -10.59
HCA 3.47
LgRtg 107.89

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.


51 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 18, 2011)”

  1. Neil Paine Says:

    You can also re-form these Ken Pomeroy-style as pythagorean ratings:

    Rank Team AdjO AdjD AdjPyth
    1 Miami Heat 111.7 104.6 0.7154
    2 Chicago Bulls 107.8 100.9 0.7153
    3 Los Angeles Lakers 112.3 105.1 0.7151
    4 San Antonio Spurs 111.7 105.1 0.7018
    5 Boston Celtics 107.7 101.4 0.7006
    6 Orlando Magic 109.2 103.8 0.6711
    7 Dallas Mavericks 111.0 106.7 0.6360
    8 Denver Nuggets 113.1 108.7 0.6352
    9 Oklahoma City Thunder 111.7 107.9 0.6171
    10 New Orleans Hornets 106.5 104.3 0.5736
    11 Houston Rockets 111.8 109.9 0.5600
    12 Memphis Grizzlies 107.8 105.9 0.5600
    13 Portland Trail Blazers 109.0 107.4 0.5508
    14 Philadelphia 76ers 107.4 106.2 0.5402
    15 New York Knickerbockers 111.6 110.8 0.5263
    16 Atlanta Hawks 107.3 107.3 0.4997
    17 Phoenix Suns 110.1 110.4 0.4905
    18 Utah Jazz 109.4 110.5 0.4647
    19 Milwaukee Bucks 101.6 103.1 0.4473
    20 Indiana Pacers 105.0 106.6 0.4468
    21 Golden State Warriors 108.9 111.7 0.4137
    22 Los Angeles Clippers 106.7 109.6 0.4047
    23 Charlotte Bobcats 103.8 107.8 0.3697
    24 Detroit Pistons 108.1 112.7 0.3574
    25 Minnesota Timberwolves 105.1 110.4 0.3344
    26 Sacramento Kings 103.7 109.6 0.3163
    27 New Jersey Nets 103.7 109.6 0.3142
    28 Toronto Raptors 107.2 113.6 0.3061
    29 Washington Wizards 102.8 110.9 0.2570
    30 Cleveland Cavaliers 102.6 113.1 0.2017
  2. Ben Says:

    I like the pomeroy style. It couldn't be any more close at the top.

  3. Greyberger Says:

    Man those Bulls and Celtics defenses are for real. I'm imagining a perfect storm of not scoring when the Bucks get the eight seed and run into one of the best defenses in memory (either Chicago or Boston will do).

    Indiana would have to start losing even more often for that to happen, though.

    In the West, it could be offense versus offense if the Thunder and Nuggets represent the four and five seed or the Rockets make it to the playoffs. Any of the top seeds versus the Rockets would be a good series, I think, especially if you like a lot of scoring.

  4. Greyberger Says:

    I changed my mind. Dwight Howard for MVP. That should put an end to all this Rose nonsense.

  5. Anon Says:

    Chris Paul for MVP you mean :)

    Thanks to the media though, Rose is the clear front-runner. A great player, but he isn't having a better season than Paul/James/Howard.

  6. Greyberger Says:

    Can't argue with picking Lebron, even though his numbers are down a bit from previous MVP seasons. I went with Howard because he's having a tremendous year on offense and we all know how good he is on defense.

    He's giving you the offensive production of a Dirk Nowitski or a Kevin Durant and all-nba defense.

    Dwight Howard was already the consensus best at his position, and this year he got a lot better; if he's not disqualified for lack of team wins he should absolutely be MVP.

  7. huevonkiller Says:

    I like Chris Paul but he should not be MVP. He has more offensive win shares than LeBron and he shouldn't. That is one of the few errors in win share formula LeBron is the superior offensive player and I could cite Neil's usage-efficiency tradeoff combined with his durability, and other barometers. He's better on 82games as well and that holds a lot of weight with me.

    Chris isn't as good on defense as his defensive rating suggests. Again that's where I like to look at 82games.

    It is between LeBron and Howard, and I'm leaning towards James. It does not matter to me though I'd rather see James get a ring.

  8. huevonkiller Says:

    For reference, even in 2007-2008 I did not believe Chris Paul was the MVP, even though he had more win shares. He is not the better defender. On defense he gave up 18 PER at the point guard position. I just think Defensive rating can be misleading.

  9. Greyberger Says:

    In a 30 minute chat, Ric Bucher said that "the MVP isn't about statistics", and listed some things that Rose does for his team. Direct quotes:

    closing games
    creating for his teammates
    he has a better record with far less talent around him
    I wouldn't trade Derrick Rose for LeBron James.
    And since it begs the question: I wouldn't trade him for anybody.
    [The bench is] playing harder and better, in part, because, one, they have such immense confidence in Rose, knowing that if they keep it close he will bring it home
    he also is, without question, their hardest worker
    I admire what Howard has done this season and how he's evolved, but when it comes to leadership it's not even close

    and the cherry on the sundae, the old "Ask the players in the league who they fear more right now"

  10. Anon Says:

    Well it's not just WS, Heuvon. Paul is also favored by SPM and he's also among the league leaders in RAPM. All of these metrics also like him as a defender.

    You can make a good case for LBJ and Dwight though and I wouldn't complain if they win the award. Greyberger makes some solid points for D12. I also think we can all agree that they are stronger candidates than Rose at least from a production standpoint.

  11. marparker Says:

    Its kind of ironic that followers of a stats based web page would try and cherry pick 1 data point(1 mvp). There is a good chance that one of the top 5 producers is actually providing his team with the most help but trying to identify which one of those is true is almost impossible to say definitively.

    My own personal argument is that it will be a joke if Derrick Rose wins. He is a the leading scorer on a team the voters are surprised is a contender. This happens every time there is a new team on the block. Why can't we just embrace it? What would make this interesting is to start calling the media out on who they're going to be "wrong" about before they get the ball rolling.

    Shouldn't we all have seen Derrick Rose's MVP candidacy coming?

  12. huevonkiller Says:

    Anon, not sure about that. Take into account all advanced metrics even then Paul might not win. CP also plays 36 minutes a game, which will help other candidates.

  13. huevonkiller Says:

    *Taking into account

    Also interesting point Marparker.

  14. Greyberger Says:

    #10 does have some good points. I'm probably thinking about the MVP the wrong way; we should come up with some other term for the season's top performer. If you want to think about it this way, 'performance' is one component of the MVP, with narrative and team wins as notable factors as well.

    When it comes to just the performance part, I don't think it's as wide open as you say. If Lebron wasn't having a down year it would be a one man race. As it is I think Lebron and Howard are the best candidates, separated from the pack (Dirk, Rose, Durant) by virtue of defensive prowess.

    I can be happy for Rose, though, when he gets the MVP. That's another conversation entirely.

  15. WadeBestGuard Says:

    Wade is the best guard in the league!!!! Look at the points, blocks, rebounds, steals, fg%!!
    Wade, sharing the ball and limelight with King James, can still make a mighty impact.
    I can't believe they said Rose was better than Wade. Rose is not even in the top ten in PER. Rose benefits from a great front line just like Kobe does. I think the Rose talk is because people hate Lebron and the Heat so much. Everybody knows that both Lebron and Wade are the most dominant in the league at their respective positions, and Lebron is the best in the league by far. They just won't vote for him because of his decision.
    If they're going to make it a popularity contest why don't they just all vote for Shaq, and call it a day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The media is so against Lebron it is not even funny. Everybody knows he has been the best player in the league for over 5 years running.
    Kobe, on the other hand, is sometimes a liability on the Lakers. His TS% SUCKs. He is by far the most overrated player in the history. Without Kobe that team still wins 55 games a year and at least 1 championship with a top 20 guard.

  16. WadeBestGuard Says:

    The best guards ever:

    1. MJ
    2. Jerry West
    3. Dwayne Wade
    4. Kobe Bryant
    5. Reggie Miller

  17. Jason J Says:

    If Rose is getting so little help, maybe he should be outproducing Howard and James. His team must desperately need it since everyone else is apparently so godawful. Seriously, sarcasm aside, if you can't point to the exact intangible things that a player is doing that make him more valuable than players with higher production... what's the argument?

    The notion that Rose's leadership is what's keeping the team together and the chemistry so strong is a good argument, because as Pierce and Garnett pointed out when Perk got moved, team chemistry is a sometimes overlooked aspect of winning basketball. Another intangible is the fact that he's able to manufacture scoring opportunities in late game situations. I don't have a problem with finding real reasons to vote for him. I just wish the voters would bother to make an argument instead of kneejerking for the best player on a team that exceeded expectations. Own the fact that we were all wrong about how long it would take Chicago to pick up Thibodeau's defense and move on.

  18. Anonx2 Says:

    Miami Heat have underperformed compared to expectations. Regardless of whether the expectations were the problem or the team itself doesn't matter. Miami is also just 20-20 against above .500 teams. Personally, I don't think Wade or Bron deserve consideration for MVP (if there was an offensive player of the year, however, sure).

    Here are Dirk's on/off splits.

    Dirk on: 116 Offense, 104 defense (efficiency ratings.
    Dirk off: 103 Offense, 109 defense

    That's an 18 point swing! Furthermore, Dallas has won more games than anyone thought they would and they have won more than we'd estimate based on point differential.

    He's also shooting 51% in the clutch. Overall 24.4 PER, and 0.223 WS/48 on .637 TS%

    It's Dirk or Dwight and no one else in contention.

  19. Anon Says:

    Anon x2, I don't think "expectations" should be used for MVP criteria. Someone who is having a down or "off" season by his standards (or what the media expects him to have) doesn't necessarily mean he's not outperforming everyone else. Bron and Wade are still MVP front-runners even if they aren't having historic seasons (by their usual standards) and Miami isn't the 70-win team Jeff Van Gundy said that they would be prior to the season.

    Dirk is a good MVP choice.

  20. P Middy Says:

    #17 - But KNEEJERKING is basically all they do!

    The MVP award reached joke-like status when MJ didn't win 6 - 8 of them. The (real) criteria is simple:

    1.) One of the best records. Top 5 at least.
    2.) Best player on one of those teams.
    3.) Media is not sick of the person. With a kicker if the media LOVES the person.

    Howard took himself out of the race when he refused to talk to media about his contract situation this year. LeBron took himself out with The Decision. Who's left? They're sick of Kobe (he's curt with them too). They're not going to give it to someone on Boston, San Antonio, or Miami because they have multiple all-stars. Rose, Howard, and Durant are basically the options left and we know who has the best record there.

  21. Anon Says:

    "Seriously, sarcasm aside, if you can't point to the exact intangible things that a player is doing that make him more valuable than players with higher production... what's the argument?"

    The problem here though is that when you talk about "intangibles" you're crossing into pretty subjective territory.

    Rose is the best offensive player on a team that is awesome on defense. And since no one cares about defense as much as offense, some people erroneously credit alot of the Bulls' record to Rose that really should be credited to their work on the defensive end. It's similar to Iverson and his Sixers during their 2001 run.

  22. AYC Says:

    When statheads are being honest, they acknowledge that none of the advanced metrics out there does a perfect job of capturing all the complexities of the game. Yet you guys get all bent out of shape that the MVP isn't based on your preferred metric. I'm glad there is no set criteria or formula for determining MVP, because formulas often produce clearly bad results when they don't, or can't, factor in every relevent aspect of a player's production.

    PS While I think Rose has been the MVP up to this point, if he keeps shooting under 40% like he has this month, that might change the voters' minds

  23. Jason J Says:

    #21 - At least with Rose this year there isn't an incredibly obvious guy who should have won it like there was with AI (the Answer is Duncan... IMO obviously). No one is head and shoulders better than every other healthy player in the league to where you almost have to vote for him.

  24. huevonkiller Says:

    Anonx2, the Heat have not all struggled against elite teams. Chris Bosh and Wade have had their problems, LeBron has been consistent. At least do some research before you get all jealous.

    No, Dirk is a terrible MVP choice. He plays 34 minutes a game and he's no where near the top 3 candidates. If you want to make it a popularity contest don't try to use stats as a facade.

  25. huevonkiller Says:

    #22 Just read the post right above yours. It does a pretty excellent job of explaining why the Bulls are winning.

  26. AYC Says:

    This isn't Baseball, where defense and offense are completely unrelated. We can't assume Chicago would be as good defensively without Rose carrying the offense.

  27. Anon Says:

    I believe that one could determine the correlation between offensive and defensive efficiency in basketball.

    And I would be positive that it's not a strong correlation.

  28. Neil Paine Says:

    #27 - I'll quote something I wrote in an email to Henry Abbott last September:

    "If you run the correlation between offensive & defensive rating (relative to the league avg) since 1977, the R-squared value is 0.017, meaning team offensive ability explains less than 2% of the variation in defensive ability, and vice-versa."

    So, no, there's almost no correlation whatsoever between a team's offensive rating and its defensive rating.

  29. Jason J Says:

    #27 - I wonder about that...

    I can think off the top of my head of a few instances where a change in focus produced dramatic changes in defense.

    Pierce and Ray Allen certainly have played much better defense in their elder statesman years as their offensive responsibilities have tailed off from their youth, and even Garnett may have peaked as a defender in 2008 when he was no longer expected to carry a team at the other end. I'm not sure if the +/- backs that up though.

    From an award standpoint the only players I can remember garnering more than two defensive player of the year awards are Dikembe and B. Wallace. Rodman and Eaton both got two each as well. Of course Dream, Zo, and Moncrief each got two without being pure defensive specialists.

    From a team strategy perspective the 1994 Chicago Bulls played better team defense in than the 1993 Bulls despite having virtually the same starting lineup as they did the year before minus Michael Jordan. The team focus had to shift though because without MJ, the scoring dropped off precipitously, so to stay in games they had to curtail cheating out, gang rebound, and position defend instead of pressing. It was a conscious change by the team, but it does offer anecdotal evidence of a connection between offensive and defensive efficiency.

    So much of offense and defense intersects. A very conservative offense, like the Pat Riley Knicks, gives everybody the chance to get back and play defense - doesn't leave multiple guards buried in the corners waiting to shoot threes when Steve Nash drives and kicks. Doesn't have both the center and power forward crashing the offensive boards. It's a set up to create few easy scoring opportunities on both ends (and I honestly think that, in addition to the very high rebound rate of Charles Oakley, severely impacted Ewing's overall metrics to the point where he's gone from overrated in the '90s to underrated since his retirement).

    I'm not sure how clearly any of this would show up in a player's statistics though. It might not since what we're in fact expecting with lower usage is lower production and higher efficiency, and that's likely to occur with or without an increased commitment to defense.

  30. P Middy Says:

    Does that mean than 2% of offense is fast break? That's the easiest thing I can think of as far as defense leading to offense. And it seems to happen more than .5-1 times per game.

    If Abbott calculated the r-squared value of my foot vs. his ass, it would be something like 87%.

  31. Anonx2 Says:

    #19 Anon - But you have to consider the narrative. The MVP award has never been treated as solely a "best player" or "best producer" award. Lebron won 60+ games the past 2 seasons with the next best player being Mo Williams and 3rd best Varajeo. Now he plays with Wade and Bosh and will win less games. This cannot be ignored. For this season, his MVP case is awful.

    #24 - Huevon aka Lebron homer - no poor outing, eh? He's had em both times versus Dallas, against Orlando and against Boston, the Spurs, and Atlanta. Or are 11/30 shooting nights with 6 turnovers good games? And let's not forget him choking time after time. They're 20-20 against winning teams. That's bad for a contender, I'd imagine.

    Dirk is a great choice. You don't even provide a rebuttal except "nuh-uh," which pretty much demonstrates the validity of your position.

  32. Sean Says:

    At #28

    Neil says: So, no, there's almost no correlation whatsoever between a team's offensive rating and its defensive rating.>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Yet, often good defensive plays lead to easy offense. How can that be?

  33. Neil Paine Says:

    I would say there are two possible explanations: either a good defensive possession significantly increases the subsequent possession's expected ORtg less frequently than our gut would have us believe, or at the NBA level it's difficult to simultaneously acquire both offensive and defensive talent. In reality, it's probably some combination of both.

    FWIW, in college the R-squared between raw offensive and defensive rating (relative to the D-I average) is 0.12 this year, so even if you take away most of the NBA-level restrictions about amassing talent on the same team, there isn't a huge amount of explanatory power. Offensive and defensive ratings are, by and large, independent.

  34. Anon Says:

    #31 That's just it though; I'm not interested in LBJ's or any other player's performances from prior seasons to look at how he is playing relative to the rest of the league THIS season. A "down" LBJ has still outplayed almost everyone in the league for the current season.

  35. Anonx2 Says:

    But Anon, MVP is not about who "outplayed" whom. Kevin Garnett was the best player in the league and outperformed everyone in a season where his team didn't make the playoffs and no one considered him up for MVP.

    Now, if you want to believe the "valuable" in MVP refers to "most productive," then fine, but you need to be aware that that is not at all how it is viewed as evidenced by Malone, Nash, Iverson, etc winning the award over much more productive players.

    It's a combination of production and team narrative. If your team under-performs, then your perceived "value" will be hurt.

  36. huevonkiller Says:


    Anon you're choking in this discussion you mean.

    In clutch time LeBron James draws free throws at an insane rate and hits 87% of them. Your inability to notice that is just another reason why you're a joke. Anonx2, that's probably one of the least savvy posts I've ever seen here.

    LeBron has a 60+ TS% in clutch time (source: 82games) and he's second in points per 48 minutes behind the significantly inefficient Kobe Bryant. LOL nice try.

    Oh and tell me LeBron's offensive rating against top 5 teams this year? Yeah that's what I thought brah. You've got nothing, get out of here with your arbitrary opinions.

    Dallas is not a top 5 defense dude, lol the chart is right above you. They are #12. LA, San Antonio, Chicago, Orlando, are all teams he has ravaged. In comparison players are supposed to play worse against elite defenses (see: Kobe Bryant the last 3-4 years).

    Dude you're having some issues, where did I say he's never had a bad outing? Lol ok whatever, keep making up things I said.

    Dirk has a +11 PER differential when he's on the court. He's played 61% of his team's minutes at his position. Legit MVP candidates are at +15 and 70%. Dwight Howard is better. You're a little Laker fanatic that got owned by Miami, and LeBron is a lot more efficient than Kobe in crunch time make sure you always remember that.

    Keep hanging on to that slow start in November, LeBron James has been the best player in the league this year. He's the only one that deserves an "offensive" player of the year too.

  37. huevonkiller Says:


    Why should we care about poor MVP selections like Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, and Allen Iverson?

    Certainly we know it is about team narrative, but why should we continue to reinforce those views, especially on a site dedicated to objective analysis? Peace. :]

  38. Anonx2 Says:

    #36 - Huevon: Who cares? "Crunch time" is considered the last 5 minutes. In super-crunch time, which has yet to be released, he's been awful.

    You think all the stats tell the story? Yay, Lebron had a near triple-double in a 20 point loss! Stats don't mean jack if it doesn't translate to wins that matter.

    Miami is 20-20 against .500 teams. We've seen this story written before with Cleveland.

    Who cares about PER? PER is not a great stat and it does not determine MVP alone. The term is "most valuable player" and as far as value goes, Dirk's team is elite when he's on the floor and abysmal when he's off the floor. Lebron's splits are not 17 points in his favor, now are they?

    Lebron won 60+ games with lesser teammates in Cleveland. He will win less than 60 in Miami. That disqualifies him from the MVP discussion. The team has underperformed! It is 20-20 vs above .500 teams. No individual stat can trump this part of the narrative.

    You want to ignore the narrative because of your homerism. But Dwight and Dirk are more deserving.

    I don't care that Miami beat the Lakers during the regular season. Ask Orlando how that worked out for them 2 years ago. You try to make it about 1 player always. Lebron can't even win 60 games with a top 3 SG and top 5 PF alongside him in a weak East!

  39. Anon Says:

    "Lebron won 60+ games with lesser teammates in Cleveland. He will win less than 60 in Miami. That disqualifies him from the MVP discussion. The team has underperformed!"

    Come on, Anon x 2. This is a team sport isn't it? Wade and Bosh ALSO haven't played as well, and Miami's bench isn't as good as Cleveland's in 2010. You seem to love to either blame or credit an entire team's performance on ONE player, which you can't do. I'm pretty sure if you put Kobe on the T-Wolves they aren't winning a ton of games - does that now make him not an elite player? This is ridiculous. Learn to distinguish tram from the individual

    "I don't care that Miami beat the Lakers during the regular season. Ask Orlando how that worked out for them 2 years ago."

    The ironic thing is that you want to harp about records vs. .500 teams when head-to-head records seem to have more predictive power than records vs. .500 teams anyway.

    The fact is that point differential/home court advantage is the most important factor when making a prediction.

  40. huevonkiller Says:

    Anonx2, dude you're a choker. Plain and simple I'm asking you to provide me evidence that LeBron, not his teammates, are choking.

    First you tried to prove Lebron has played poorly against great teams, then you gagged when I clarified that for you. Now you're citing a stat that doesn't exist because you're a bitter Laker fan.

    " In super-crunch time, which has yet to be released, he's been awful.You think all the stats tell the story? Yay, Lebron had a near triple-double in a 20 point loss! Stats don't mean jack if it doesn't translate to wins that matter."

    Really, show me these "super" crunch time stats, oh that's right you don't have jack. And then prove to me how it matters for the overall MVP race. Shaq sucked in "super" crunch time (Hack-a-Shaq), and he owned Kobe Bryant and his peers during the 3-peat years anyway. Dude you're argument is crumbling before you.

    If you defend Kobe, Iverson, Nash as legit MVPs that reflects on your emotional bias.

  41. huevonkiller Says:

    Anonx2, lol Neil owned you today.

    LeBron has "fallen" to 2000 Shaq level according to statistical plus minus. Yeah that's right, the Shaq that had his best season in the NBA. What were you saying about +/- and on/off court impact? You don't have a leg to stand on.

    Lol you thought you were being cute with that on/off court stuff, but that's not really working out for you.

  42. Anonx2 Says:

    #39 - Anon. I never said Lebron stopped being elite, that is a straw man. I said he's not the MVP. If you'd bother to watch and analyze the games, you'd realize Miami's offensive woes stem from Lebron and Wade being the same player and Bosh being reduced to mostly a spot up shooter. Lebron and Wade deserve blame for this because they allow their games to be too similar. They both deserve blame and therefore both deserve to be out of MVP contention. Don't give me this bench bullpatties. Wade, Bosh, Miller, James Jones (who is shooting lights out from 3), and now Bibby etc. Come on. How many excuses we gonna give Lebron and Miami? I disagree on your second point and I keep bringing it up to neil but I've yet to see him run the analysis on PD and record vs. .500 teams.

    #40 - Huevon: I provided you games in which he played poorly. I never argued he has never played well. Okay, here's a question. Why is it that Wade and Bosh have all of a sudden become chokers around Lebron. Especially in Wade's case? Lebron doesn't deserve any blame for this at all? It can't be partially because of how he plays? Stop being an apologist.

    Did you even watch the last month or so of games? Did you miss how Lebron stunk the join up in every close game versus good teams? Did you miss how when they let Wade control the ball in crunch time that Miami finally won? How many game winning shots (or ties) did Lebron miss this year so far? 7? 8? Without a make! He has choked in the final minute of nearly every game this year taking horrible shots and bricking badly.

    #41 - lol @ you. You realize SPM isn't a +/- stat, right? Oh wait, you don't. It's another advanced metric in the mold of PER. It is only presented in a +/- form but it doesn't actually measure +/- in any sort of way. Go look up the formula.

    Way to fail on that one, buddy.

  43. Anon Says:

    #42 With the evidence of diminishing returns in basketball, Bosh's splits don't suggest a player who should be creating MORE for his team. Which in efect is basically what you're complaining about.

    And they award the MVP award for an ENTIRE season's worth of play, not just based on games where LBJ and Wade don't play well.

    "Why is it that Wade and Bosh have all of a sudden become chokers around Lebron. Especially in Wade's case?"

    Because when Wade can't get the whistle against good defenses with his drives into the paint and has to shoot midrange and long jumpers, he struggles. This has been the strategy against him his whole career.

    The funny thing is, in these kind of games, LBJ has deferred to Wade on offense. That's perhaps the one thing he shouldn't be doing, because Wade hasn't played as well when taking on the primary role on offense.

  44. Anonx2 Says:

    #43 Anon - DR doesn't matter. Sometimes you have to live with them to space the floor for the entire game. Game theory. If you play into the other team's hands, it won't matter.

    When a player doesn't play well should come into focus. Again, narrative.

    Your argument for Wade is very similar for Lebron. When teams make him shoot long jumpers and he doesn't get the whistle, he generally struggles. Wade and Lebron are the same player, for the most part. Just Lebron is better at it.

    The games where LBJ dominated the last 2 minutes against good teams, they've lost just about every single one. The few times Wade has dominated, they've won. Lebron hasn't deferred enough.

    The other problem is that both Lebron and Wade basically do nothing when the other is handling the ball. No off-ball movement or anything. Maybe if 1 of them would try something rather than camp in the wing or corner almost always out of the play, making it harder for his teammates to score, I'd rethink my position.

    If Lebron can't win 60 games with Wade and Bosh, he's not the MVP. Period. His stats may be great, but he's not making the game easier for his teammates. That's why they've underwhlmed.

  45. Anon Says:

    Anon x2, you've presented some points that are either NOT supported by evidence ("DR doesn't matter"? Really?) or show that you have been selectively biased about what you claim to "watch" during Heat games. You've done this before in other threads which I've already addressed and I'm not going to do this again here.

    I'll say this though. While you compain about the Heat not meeting the "expectations" you had for them prior to the season, they have won the past 5 of 6 and are in prime position to win the East. LeBron, the player who doesn't "make the game easier for his teammates", has also added 13 wins/+8 point differential to his team, marks which are among the league's best. Like I said before, a down season for this man is still pretty much better than anyone else's season. You want to judge LBJ's MVP candicancy based on what HE has done before; but the award is about what he has done COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LEAGUE. And he's got you covered there.

    You can always argue if he, Rose, Howard, Dirk, etc. should win the award. But don't be stupid and claim that the best player on a title-contending team isn't even a candidate.

  46. Anonx2 Says:

    They are in prime position to win the east? How are they going to make up a 4 game deficit (chicago has the tiebreaker) with just about 11 games to go. Chicago also has one of the easiest closing schedules left. Miami should stay at the 3 seed they're at right now and have almost no shot at the 1 seed.

    Compared to the rest of the league, I think he is not an MVP candidate. The individual stats are great but it hasn't translated to the team wins that they should translate to if he was truly an MVP. The past 2 years he was clearly the MVP. I just have a hard time seeing his value when he's destroying bad teams and skating by (as a team) against everyone else. I have to question whether some of the stats are a bit hollow this season.

    Playoffs will tell us who is right and wrong with that claim.

    FTR, the DR claim was that because they exist doesn't mean you should always avoid then. What I was getting at was that in basketball, the optimal strategy is not always the most efficient one. Nor does it take into account what defenses are doing.

  47. huevonkiller Says:

    "Huevon: I provided you games in which he played poorly. I never argued he has never played well."

    Dude, are you all there? Post his game score, offensive rating, +/-. anything, in ALL his games. Yeah that's what I thought. You've provided me evidence that you are scared. Show me the numbers now or don't waste my time.

    Anonx2 if you're not going to provide evidence that OVERALL LeBron James, not the Miami Heat, has done badly then shut your mouth please.

    Wade is getting the Ball because Lebron trusts him, and he's playing poorly. He played poorly in 2008 and he is hurt every other year in the playoffs. LeBron should hog the Ball more, but he's a nice guy. Eitherway the Heat are still better than the Lakers this year. You have a total of two losses less than Miami, and Miami has severely outplayed you since December.

  48. huevonkiller Says:

    Anonx2, let me explain how Neil owned you since you don't seem to understand.

    First, when LeBron James is not on the court, Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh are. That's why using raw +/- is immature and something only a dense fan would do. Dirk's backups don't compare, it has little to do with Dirk's "ranking" in the total spectrum of the NBA.

    Statistical plus minus adjusts for teammates and applies statistics to award credit for on/off court impact. You've lost another argument, unless you want to argue for Dwight Howard or Lebron James, you don't have a credible case to make. LeBron = 2001 Shaq, Dirk is a terrible Steve Nash MVP candidate.

    The 2001 Lakers won 56 games, your entire argument is dumb. The amount of wins doesn't factor either, Dirk is as undeserving of being MVP as Kobe was in 2008.

  49. huevonkiller Says:

    #46 BTW, even the playoffs don't always settle things. John Hollinger is really favoring Chicago right now, and a Chicago-Miami series is still a toss-up according to him.

    Luck always plays some factor in the playoffs. Just another bit of nuance you lack.

  50. Anonx2 Says:

    you need to get some help, dude.

  51. huevonkiller Says:

    Lol you've got nothing.

    Keep complaining, that is all you can do.