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Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #8 Indiana

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Derrick Rose 81 3026 5.38 3.2 1.9 0.208 23.5
SG Keith Bogans 82 1461 -0.90 0.2 0.2 0.118 9.0
SF Luol Deng 82 3208 1.69 3.4 3.8 0.149 15.5
PF Carlos Boozer 59 1882 2.77 1.0 2.2 0.149 18.8
C Joakim Noah 48 1576 3.77 0.7 2.4 0.205 18.8
SG Ronnie Brewer 81 1781 1.59 1.6 0.9 0.147 13.8
PF Taj Gibson 80 1742 -0.72 0.8 0.8 0.143 14.3
SF Kyle Korver 82 1649 0.55 1.1 2.5 0.149 13.0
PG C.J. Watson 82 1091 -0.69 0.4 1.2 0.093 12.8
C Omer Asik 82 989 -1.49 3.4 4.0 0.130 11.8
C Kurt Thomas 52 1178 0.54 -0.6 1.0 0.131 10.0
SF Rasual Butler 47 770 -7.18 -1.6 -1.8 -0.009 6.2
PF Brian Scalabrine 18 88 -2.58 -0.5 -1.1 0.071 6.5
PG John Lucas 2 10 -15.05 -0.1 -0.1 -0.121 -0.1
PG Jannero Pargo 0 0 -- -- -- -- --

Indiana Pacers

37-45, 2nd in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Jim O'Brien (17-27), Frank Vogel (20-18)

PTS/G: 99.8 (13th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 100.9 (17th of 30)
SRS: -1.38 (19th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.7 (6th of 30)
Off Rtg: 104.8 (23rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 106.0 (12th of 30)
Expected W-L: 38-44 (19th of 30)

Arena: Conseco Fieldhouse ▪ Attendance: 555,077 (30th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Darren Collison 79 2360 -0.20 -1.2 -1.9 0.087 15.6
SG Paul George 61 1265 1.07 0.5 0.9 0.091 13.0
SF Danny Granger 79 2763 2.63 1.0 2.5 0.121 17.8
PF Tyler Hansbrough 70 1535 -1.22 -1.4 -1.1 0.118 16.4
C Roy Hibbert 81 2244 -1.55 0.3 3.2 0.077 15.9
SG Brandon Rush 67 1754 -2.07 -2.7 -2.0 0.070 10.6
PF Josh McRoberts 72 1597 1.57 1.5 1.8 0.147 16.0
C Jeff Foster 56 940 0.34 2.1 3.2 0.152 14.3
PG A.J. Price 50 795 -2.84 -0.1 1.6 0.020 10.7
SG Dahntay Jones 45 589 -1.11 0.3 -2.4 0.102 13.7
SF Mike Dunleavy 61 1683 1.35 1.8 1.8 0.128 14.5
PF James Posey 49 839 -0.47 -0.4 -0.2 0.056 7.5
PG T.J. Ford 41 773 -2.99 0.5 0.4 0.011 9.9
C Solomon Jones 39 528 -4.34 -1.1 -2.9 0.042 8.5
SG Lance Stephenson 12 115 -7.35 0.1 0.1 -0.093 5.5

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games CHI IND Prob Games CHI IND Prob
5 4 1 35.9% 4 4 0 54.2%
4 4 0 31.4% 5 4 1 33.1%
6 4 2 16.6% 6 4 2 8.9%
7 4 3 10.6% 7 4 3 3.1%
6 2 4 2.3% 7 3 4 0.3%
7 3 4 2.1% 6 2 4 0.3%
5 1 4 0.7% 5 1 4 0.1%
4 0 4 0.3% 4 0 4 0.0%
CHI 94.6% CHI 99.3%
IND 5.4% IND 0.7%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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