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Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #7 Philadelphia

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Mike Bibby 80 2285 -0.27 0.3 0.3 0.085 10.9
SG Dwyane Wade 76 2824 6.68 3.6 6.7 0.218 25.5
SF LeBron James 79 3063 8.76 4.2 10.2 0.245 27.3
PF Chris Bosh 77 2795 2.07 4.5 4.9 0.177 19.4
C Erick Dampier 51 815 -3.02 -0.1 -0.9 0.109 9.7
SF James Jones 81 1549 -0.25 1.1 0.4 0.145 11.1
F-C Joel Anthony 75 1463 -3.77 0.1 -2.2 0.107 7.3
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas 72 1145 -1.82 0.7 1.5 0.122 12.8
PG Eddie House 56 978 -0.68 -0.2 0.5 0.108 11.9
SG Mike Miller 41 838 -0.79 -2.4 -0.9 0.090 9.7
PF Juwan Howard 57 592 -5.36 -1.0 -2.6 0.074 8.4
PG Mario Chalmers 70 1578 0.87 0.6 0.1 0.089 10.3
PF Udonis Haslem 13 345 -0.23 0.4 -0.9 0.130 12.7
C Jamaal Magloire 18 158 1.04 -0.6 0.7 0.172 12.7
C Dexter Pittman 2 11 -17.51 -0.1 0.2 -0.246 -6.4

Philadelphia 76ers

41-41, 3rd in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doug Collins (41-41)

PTS/G: 99.0 (18th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.5 (12th of 30)
SRS: 1.00 (14th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.7 (16th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.6 (17th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (7th of 30)
Expected W-L: 45-37 (13th of 30)

Arena: Wells Fargo Center ▪ Attendance: 604,823 (25th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Jrue Holiday 82 2901 1.66 1.9 1.8 0.094 15.4
SG Jodie Meeks 74 2062 -0.08 1.4 2.4 0.120 12.5
SF Andre Iguodala 67 2469 3.04 1.3 2.0 0.130 17.2
PF Elton Brand 81 2809 2.20 1.1 0.9 0.161 18.5
C Spencer Hawes 81 1718 -2.54 -1.7 -2.6 0.066 12.8
PF Thaddeus Young 82 2135 1.50 2.6 4.3 0.139 18.4
SG Evan Turner 78 1797 -2.82 -1.5 -0.1 0.060 10.8
SF Andres Nocioni 54 931 -2.76 -3.1 -0.2 0.067 10.1
C Marreese Speights 64 734 -1.99 0.7 -2.5 0.110 15.4
PG Antonio Daniels 4 35 -8.35 0.3 -1.5 0.044 6.6
C Tony Battie 38 377 -3.46 -1.1 -0.3 0.075 9.5
PG Louis Williams 75 1747 1.31 0.2 -1.1 0.141 18.9
SF Jason Kapono 24 111 -12.07 0.2 -2.0 -0.070 1.6
PF Darius Songaila 10 71 -8.72 -0.8 0.6 -0.019 1.2
PF Craig Brackins 3 33 -11.58 -0.4 -0.4 -0.154 0.1

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games MIA PHI Prob Games MIA PHI Prob
5 4 1 32.3% 5 4 1 31.2%
4 4 0 21.3% 4 4 0 19.6%
6 4 2 18.5% 6 4 2 18.6%
7 4 3 15.7% 7 4 3 16.7%
6 2 4 5.1% 6 2 4 5.9%
7 3 4 4.5% 7 3 4 5.0%
5 1 4 1.8% 5 1 4 2.1%
4 0 4 0.8% 4 0 4 1.0%
MIA 87.8% MIA 86.1%
PHI 12.2% PHI 13.9%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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3 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #7 Philadelphia”

  1. huevonkiller Says:

    I was reading Brian Windhorst's article after Miami's first game against Philly. I think he's a pretty ignorant guy right now, I don't think Wade is the official designated closer. And I think Windhorst is a baby hypocrite because he kept whining during the off-season about how LeBron left Cleveland. Guess what, Windhorst left Cleveland too.

    That is such a dumb thing to say, to overrate one game and base that as the way Miami will play the rest of the post-season. The facts are that LeBron plays off the ball more, but he's a better crunch time player this year. Wade is more inefficient and on any one given night he might take a lot more shots than James, but over a season it basically evens out.

    I won't mind pointing out how dumb that criticism looks a few weeks from now. This team is a multi-faceted attack, and James is their best player and has been all year. He takes TOO many shots sometimes in crunch time, and can afford to spread the ball around by not over-dribbling. But not being the #1 option? Well he has been all year. Take a look at how Miami has played since there Laker game in March (when they figured things out). LeBron is owning Wade, give him respect. Luckily for me he's young and has a long career ahead of him as well. Some players have their careers slandered by poor media hacks.

  2. Anon Says:

    According to 82 games, this season LBJ shot a .600+ TS% (!) in the clutch and scored 5 points less per 48 minutes than the leader Kobe (LBJ finished 3rd), despite playing alongside another player who also likes to use his team's offense in the clutch. All while taking ten less shot attempts than the media de facto "best player" Kobe Bryant.

    Windy needs to stop pulling a "Skip Bayless" here.

  3. huevonkiller Says:

    Windy supports Rose for MVP so it makes sense how he slurps a small sample size of games. And his illogical basketball positions.

    NBA.com "statscube" is tracking clutch numbers for the 2011 playoffs. So I guess at the end of the post-season you can take a look at it. I suspect LeBron will be Miami's best player again, and the difference in clutch production won't mean much. I think Miami has a really good chance to win a title but it is a tough road.