You Are Here > Basketball-Reference.com > BBR Blog > NBA and College Basketball Analysis

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.

Basketball-Reference.com // Sports Reference

For more from Neil, check out his new work at BasketballProspectus.com.

Playoff Preview: #3 Boston vs. #6 New York

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Boston Celtics

56-26, 1st in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doc Rivers (56-26)

PTS/G: 96.5 (23rd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.1 (1st of 30)
SRS: 4.83 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (18th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (2nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 57-25 (4th of 30)

Arena: TD Garden ▪ Attendance: 763,584 (11th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Rajon Rondo 68 2527 3.89 1.4 0.9 0.126 17.1
SG Ray Allen 80 2890 2.29 1.7 4.0 0.166 16.4
SF Paul Pierce 80 2774 4.70 4.9 5.2 0.201 19.7
PF Kevin Garnett 71 2220 5.06 5.3 7.5 0.194 20.6
C Jermaine O'Neal 24 431 -5.51 0.0 0.5 0.065 9.2
SF Jeff Green 75 2427 -1.14 -1.6 -3.5 0.095 12.9
PF Glen Davis 78 2298 -0.73 -0.4 -1.1 0.102 12.8
C Nenad Krstic 71 1571 -2.72 -0.8 0.4 0.122 13.1
SG Von Wafer 58 552 -3.36 0.0 0.6 0.092 10.6
G Delonte West 24 453 -1.26 -2.4 1.3 0.093 12.3
PG Carlos Arroyo 64 1185 -4.57 -1.1 -1.2 0.068 9.0
SF Sasha Pavlovic 31 362 -4.87 -2.1 -3.1 0.042 6.0
C Shaquille O'Neal 37 752 1.41 1.8 0.8 0.174 17.4
PF Troy Murphy 35 466 -3.42 -2.6 -0.7 0.029 8.0
PG Avery Bradley 30 162 -9.80 -1.7 -1.3 -0.142 2.0

New York Knicks

42-40, 2nd in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Mike D'Antoni (42-40)

PTS/G: 106.5 (2nd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 105.7 (28th of 30)
SRS: 0.48 (15th of 30) ▪ Pace: 95.6 (3rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 110.9 (7th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 110.1 (22nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 43-39 (15th of 30)

Arena: Madison Square Garden (IV) ▪ Attendance: 808,879 (5th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Chauncey Billups 72 2310 2.56 0.1 3.4 0.166 18.7
SG Landry Fields 82 2541 -0.55 1.4 1.4 0.100 13.5
SF Carmelo Anthony 77 2751 3.12 0.8 1.9 0.138 21.7
PF Amare Stoudemire 78 2870 1.54 0.1 1.8 0.134 22.7
C Jared Jeffries 42 601 -3.43 2.7 2.4 0.045 8.0
PG Toney Douglas 81 1971 1.18 0.6 0.2 0.101 15.2
F Shawne Williams 64 1323 -0.95 -1.1 -0.2 0.089 12.2
C Ronny Turiaf 64 1141 -0.76 0.1 1.3 0.134 13.6
SG Roger Mason 26 319 -5.86 -1.4 -0.5 0.029 7.1
C Shelden Williams 59 911 -2.39 -1.9 -0.7 0.102 12.3
SF Bill Walker 61 784 -2.36 2.0 1.5 0.069 11.3
PF Derrick Brown 49 576 -2.69 -0.4 -0.3 0.083 12.9
PG Anthony Carter 33 463 -2.16 -0.1 -2.2 0.024 9.3
SF Renaldo Balkman 8 62 0.97 -0.2 -0.6 0.114 9.3
PG Andy Rautins 5 24 -17.96 -0.4 -0.4 -0.314 -1.2

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games BOS NYK Prob Games BOS NYK Prob
5 4 1 29.5% 7 4 3 20.6%
6 4 2 18.6% 5 4 1 20.3%
7 4 3 17.8% 6 4 2 15.8%
4 4 0 17.3% 6 2 4 14.2%
6 2 4 7.1% 7 3 4 10.5%
7 3 4 5.9% 4 4 0 8.7%
5 1 4 2.6% 5 1 4 6.5%
4 0 4 1.2% 4 0 4 3.5%
BOS 83.2% BOS 65.3%
NYK 16.8% NYK 34.7%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

ShareThis

5 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #3 Boston vs. #6 New York”

  1. Matt, Colombia Says:

    Is the post deadline prediction a reflection of NY getting better or Boston simply getting much worse?

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    100% Boston getting worse. I'm not even exaggerating; the Knicks' pyth% with Melo was exactly the same as it was before they got him (the way they did it just changed -- they got a lot better on offense and gave literally all of that improvement back on defense). Boston has just suffered their typical late-season swoon. And before we blame the Perk trade, most of that post-deadline decline came on offense.

  3. Sean Says:

    Rondo can get to the cup, but he can't finish. Ray disappears. Pierce doesn't feel like going to the rack. KG won't post up. That's the Celtics when it's going bad.

    Their offense has been awful in the last month. They do not rebound.

    But the Knicks don't like to play defense. And their best big doesn't mind a stat line with 2 or 4 rebounds in it (Amare).

    The Knicks could be very forgiving of all of the Celtics' weaknesses.

  4. Eric W Says:

    Too bad these formula's can't factor in for apathy and other psychological variables that come into play. Boston suffered a second half swoon, much similar to their 2/3 season long water-tread of last year.

    We've seen other established teams do this consistently in other years past. New, young, and unproven teams tend to push themselves throughout the regular season while established, older, successful teams often do not approach 82 games the same way.

    San Antonio was a pleasant anomaly this year - however, one could argue that the combination of the past few season's downturn in success coupled with the infusion of a heavy dose of younger, less established players (Hill, Splitter, Blair, Neal) into the main rotation also helped to re-install meaning into high regular season performance.

    It will be interesting to see if how the playoff efficiencies and scoring differentials balance out in the playoffs, where things like desire, determination, and sense of urgency suddenly become paramount.

  5. MikeN Says:

    Has any team ever won four straight playoff games with a different leading scorer?