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Playoff Preview: #4 Orlando vs. #5 Atlanta

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Orlando Magic

52-30, 2nd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Stan Van Gundy (52-30)

PTS/G: 99.2 (16th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 93.7 (4th of 30)
SRS: 4.92 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.4 (17th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.7 (14th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 101.8 (3rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 56-26 (5th of 30)

Arena: Amway Center ▪ Attendance: 777,852 (9th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Jameer Nelson 76 2319 2.20 1.1 2.1 0.137 15.4
SG Jason Richardson 80 2715 2.29 1.1 -0.3 0.123 14.9
SF Hedo Turkoglu 81 2540 2.09 2.1 2.7 0.130 13.4
PF Brandon Bass 76 1980 -1.22 0.9 0.0 0.154 15.9
C Dwight Howard 78 2935 7.24 4.3 7.6 0.236 26.0
PG Gilbert Arenas 70 1796 -1.06 -0.1 0.6 0.015 10.8
SG J.J. Redick 59 1513 -0.62 -0.7 -0.5 0.143 12.8
PF Ryan Anderson 64 1424 4.27 2.4 3.4 0.218 19.1
SF Quentin Richardson 57 955 -2.96 -1.0 0.8 0.068 8.0
F-C Earl Clark 42 464 -6.74 -1.8 -1.9 0.031 10.1
PG Chris Duhon 51 774 -6.77 -0.8 -0.4 0.015 5.6
PF Malik Allen 18 178 -6.93 -1.4 -2.8 0.047 3.3

Atlanta Hawks

44-38, 3rd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Larry Drew (44-38)

PTS/G: 95.0 (26th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.8 (9th of 30)
SRS: -1.10 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace: 89.3 (27th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.1 (20th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.0 (13th of 30)
Expected W-L: 39-43 (17th of 30)

Arena: Philips Arena ▪ Attendance: 641,596 (22nd of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Kirk Hinrich 72 2157 -0.49 -3.8 -0.8 0.068 12.3
SG Joe Johnson 72 2554 0.18 1.6 3.2 0.080 16.4
F Josh Smith 77 2645 3.51 2.0 4.3 0.116 19.2
C-F Al Horford 77 2704 3.61 0.9 1.4 0.179 20.7
C Jason Collins 49 593 -4.92 2.2 -1.5 0.049 5.3
SG Jamal Crawford 76 2297 -1.25 0.9 1.2 0.071 14.2
SF Marvin Williams 65 1865 -1.49 -0.2 -0.4 0.102 13.5
C Zaza Pachulia 79 1244 -1.19 -1.7 0.1 0.118 12.4
PG Jeff Teague 70 963 -0.65 -0.1 -0.1 0.083 14.6
PF Josh Powell 54 653 -8.20 -1.9 -5.1 -0.012 8.0
SF Damien Wilkins 52 676 -1.50 -1.8 -3.7 0.104 11.4
C Hilton Armstrong 53 488 -2.79 -0.8 -2.2 0.045 8.8
C Etan Thomas 13 82 -2.77 -0.4 -3.0 0.130 15.1
SF Pape Sy 3 21 -8.82 -0.1 -0.1 -0.047 9.2

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games ORL ATL Prob Games ORL ATL Prob
5 4 1 33.0% 5 4 1 36.1%
4 4 0 22.7% 4 4 0 32.0%
6 4 2 18.4% 6 4 2 16.4%
7 4 3 15.0% 7 4 3 10.4%
6 2 4 4.6% 6 2 4 2.2%
7 3 4 4.0% 7 3 4 2.0%
5 1 4 1.6% 5 1 4 0.7%
4 0 4 0.7% 4 0 4 0.3%
ORL 89.1% ORL 94.8%
ATL 10.9% ATL 5.2%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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