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Playoff Preview: #1 San Antonio vs. #8 Memphis

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

San Antonio Spurs

61-21, 1st in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Gregg Popovich (61-21)

PTS/G: 103.7 (6th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 98.0 (14th of 30)
SRS: 5.86 (4th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.3 (14th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.8 (2nd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.6 (11th of 30)
Expected W-L: 56-26 (6th of 30)

Arena: AT&T Center ▪ Attendance: 750,879 (12th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Tony Parker 78 2528 2.70 0.7 2.6 0.156 20.4
SG Manu Ginobili 80 2426 6.51 5.7 6.2 0.195 21.7
SF Richard Jefferson 81 2459 -0.67 1.0 1.4 0.115 12.4
PF Tim Duncan 76 2156 2.26 3.4 5.3 0.171 21.9
C Antonio McDyess 73 1386 -1.31 1.1 2.0 0.105 12.8
PG George Hill 76 2148 0.58 2.6 0.9 0.136 14.6
C DeJuan Blair 81 1734 2.26 -0.9 -0.7 0.132 17.1
SG Gary Neal 80 1685 -0.76 -0.4 -0.7 0.100 13.2
PF Matt Bonner 66 1432 0.54 1.5 4.0 0.147 13.5
SF James Anderson 26 286 -5.38 -1.9 -1.8 0.051 8.5
C Tiago Splitter 60 738 0.19 -1.2 -1.1 0.149 16.0
PG Chris Quinn 41 292 -5.77 -1.2 -0.3 0.024 7.5
SF Steve Novak 30 215 0.91 -1.3 -2.9 0.196 17.8
SF Danny Green 8 92 -1.64 0.3 0.0 0.076 13.2

Memphis Grizzlies

46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)

PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)

Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Mike Conley 81 2872 2.47 3.5 3.1 0.111 15.8
SG Tony Allen 72 1494 4.23 0.8 2.0 0.152 18.3
SF Sam Young 78 1577 -1.98 0.1 -1.1 0.088 12.5
PF Zach Randolph 75 2724 3.14 2.3 2.4 0.185 22.6
C Marc Gasol 81 2586 1.36 -0.2 2.2 0.146 16.8
SF Shane Battier 82 2375 0.02 1.4 3.6 0.103 12.3
SG O.J. Mayo 71 1869 -1.39 0.7 -0.5 0.062 12.6
PF Darrell Arthur 80 1609 -0.73 0.3 -1.0 0.113 15.7
PG Jason Williams 27 295 -4.16 0.8 -1.2 0.031 8.4
C Hamed Haddadi 31 168 -0.51 0.6 1.4 0.164 19.7
PG Greivis Vasquez 70 860 -4.51 -2.0 -1.4 0.030 9.4
SG Xavier Henry 38 527 -7.48 -1.5 -0.7 0.021 7.0
PG Ishmael Smith 43 442 -5.81 -1.3 -1.3 -0.016 7.6
PF Leon Powe 30 328 -2.33 -0.8 1.1 0.090 15.0

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games SAS MEM Prob Games SAS MEM Prob
5 4 1 25.4% 6 2 4 20.5%
7 4 3 19.7% 7 4 3 18.6%
6 4 2 17.8% 7 3 4 13.3%
4 4 0 12.8% 5 4 1 12.9%
6 2 4 10.1% 5 1 4 11.6%
7 3 4 8.0% 6 4 2 11.5%
5 1 4 4.1% 4 0 4 7.1%
4 0 4 2.1% 4 4 0 4.5%
SAS 75.7% SAS 47.5%
MEM 24.3% MEM 52.5%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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4 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #1 San Antonio vs. #8 Memphis”

  1. AHL Says:

    Those post-deadline percentages are le crazy! Very cool insight there, especially with the swings in HCA and # of games.

  2. Ben Says:

    Yeah, that is pretty crazy.

  3. John Says:

    What changed to make Memphis more favored post-deadline?

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    Memphis played a lot better (especially on offense) after Rudy Gay was lost for the season in Mar., and that was right around the same time San Antonio started resting their players and generally sitting on their huge lead in the standings.