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Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Los Angeles Lakers

57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)

PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)

Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Derek Fisher 82 2297 -0.95 2.6 0.8 0.078 8.9
SG Kobe Bryant 82 2779 5.67 1.2 4.8 0.179 23.8
SF Ron Artest 82 2410 0.13 2.2 3.5 0.087 11.2
PF Pau Gasol 82 3037 3.88 3.2 4.4 0.232 23.3
C Andrew Bynum 54 1500 2.32 1.7 2.2 0.210 21.1
PF Lamar Odom 82 2639 3.19 2.6 4.9 0.184 19.4
PG Steve Blake 79 1581 -3.30 -0.3 1.2 0.055 7.5
SG Shannon Brown 82 1568 -0.60 -0.1 -3.1 0.093 13.6
SF Matt Barnes 53 1020 1.64 -0.9 0.5 0.142 14.6
SF Luke Walton 54 484 -7.62 -0.1 0.8 -0.016 5.1
PF Derrick Caracter 41 215 -5.16 -1.5 -1.7 0.057 10.0
SF Devin Ebanks 20 118 -2.92 -1.4 -1.4 0.144 19.4
C Theo Ratliff 10 71 -7.52 -0.5 -1.0 0.000 4.3
C Joe Smith 16 69 -10.54 -0.4 -0.9 -0.099 -0.1

New Orleans Hornets

46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Monty Williams (46-36)

PTS/G: 94.9 (27th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.0 (5th of 30)
SRS: 1.28 (13th of 30) ▪ Pace: 88.7 (29th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (19th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.2 (10th of 30)
Expected W-L: 44-38 (14th of 30)

Arena: New Orleans Arena ▪ Attendance: 603,088 (26th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Chris Paul 80 2865 9.25 4.3 7.3 0.233 23.8
SG Marco Belinelli 80 1940 -1.79 -0.2 0.3 0.084 12.2
SF Trevor Ariza 75 2589 0.50 -1.9 0.0 0.062 11.4
PF Carl Landry 76 1996 -2.55 -1.0 -0.4 0.098 14.9
C Emeka Okafor 72 2273 0.15 2.5 -0.2 0.137 16.0
PG Jarrett Jack 83 1709 -2.42 -1.8 -1.0 0.067 14.3
SG Willie Green 77 1664 -3.63 -0.3 -1.1 0.052 10.8
SF Quincy Pondexter 66 729 -5.21 -0.9 -0.9 0.061 8.5
C Aaron Gray 41 521 -1.49 1.0 0.5 0.102 11.2
PF David Andersen 40 373 -5.34 0.5 1.2 0.033 10.9
PF Jason Smith 77 1090 -4.07 0.3 -0.5 0.071 10.9
C DJ Mbenga 41 330 -4.83 0.1 -1.0 0.076 9.7
PG Marcus Banks 3 22 -4.90 0.2 -3.1 0.012 6.8
SF Patrick Ewing 7 18 -16.62 0.2 -0.1 -0.167 0.7

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games LAL NOR Prob Games LAL NOR Prob
5 4 1 29.5% 5 4 1 35.4%
6 4 2 18.6% 4 4 0 28.8%
7 4 3 17.8% 6 4 2 17.2%
4 4 0 17.3% 7 4 3 11.9%
6 2 4 7.0% 6 2 4 2.8%
7 3 4 5.9% 7 3 4 2.6%
5 1 4 2.6% 5 1 4 0.9%
4 0 4 1.2% 4 0 4 0.4%
LAL 83.2% LAL 93.3%
NOR 16.8% NOR 6.7%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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6 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans”

  1. Matt Beahan Says:

    As a Hornets fan, I'm not hopeful. Even with David West they'd have a tough time. If the Hornets can win one or two games, I'll be happy.

  2. AYC Says:

    Maybe Chris Paul should be MVP after all....

  3. Anon Says:

    You just now realize that CP3 has been doing this all season with a lackluster cast around him?

  4. AYC Says:

    But he hasn't been playing like that all year. Paul had one 30+ game for the entire reg season. He also had the lowest usage and scoring average of his career. Many people thought the post-injury CP3 might no longer be capable of dominating as a scorer like he used to. I know, I know, there's more to the game than scoring; the fact remains that Paul's dominate performance in game 1 was predicated on a scoring outburst that was atypical for this season.

  5. Anon Says:

    Well a "down" CP3 is still top 4 in WS, top 4 in WS/48, top ONE in SPM, top 6 in RAPM.

    He's basically the best player in the league no one is talking about, and still the game's best PG.

  6. AYC Says:

    I don't disagree. But I'd still rather have DRose on my team :)