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Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Jason Kidd 80 2653 3.78 -0.5 1.9 0.116 14.4
SG Rodrigue Beaubois 28 496 -0.83 -1.1 -1.6 0.022 11.4
SF Shawn Marion 80 2253 0.03 -2.2 0.8 0.120 17.0
PF Dirk Nowitzki 73 2504 4.89 6.3 7.8 0.213 23.4
C Tyson Chandler 74 2059 2.99 3.5 2.6 0.218 18.4
SG Jason Terry 82 2564 0.81 2.5 1.9 0.100 15.9
PG Jose Barea 81 1669 -1.65 0.9 -1.7 0.093 14.8
C Brendan Haywood 72 1331 -3.21 -2.1 1.4 0.104 11.7
PF Brian Cardinal 56 618 0.44 -1.2 1.1 0.132 9.7
SF Peja Stojakovic 33 617 -0.03 1.8 3.5 0.126 15.2
SG Corey Brewer 69 1510 -0.75 -0.4 -0.3 0.036 11.0
SF DeShawn Stevenson 72 1158 -3.11 -0.3 0.4 0.074 9.8
SF Caron Butler 29 867 -0.89 1.7 1.5 0.067 14.2
PF Ian Mahinmi 56 488 0.30 0.6 0.0 0.177 13.7
SG Dominique Jones 18 135 -6.28 -0.6 -0.7 0.007 10.6

Portland Trail Blazers

48-34, 3rd in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Nate McMillan (48-34)

PTS/G: 96.3 (24th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.8 (7th of 30)
SRS: 1.84 (12th of 30) ▪ Pace: 87.9 (30th of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.8 (10th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.1 (14th of 30)
Expected W-L: 46-36 (12th of 30)

Arena: Rose Garden Arena ▪ Attendance: 840,924 (2nd of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Andre Miller 81 2650 1.56 2.9 3.0 0.127 17.8
SG Wes Matthews 82 2758 1.60 0.5 -0.6 0.126 15.5
SF Nicolas Batum 80 2522 0.70 -1.7 0.9 0.126 14.8
PF Gerald Wallace 71 2693 2.53 3.9 3.5 0.111 16.2
C LaMarcus Aldridge 81 3211 2.24 3.1 5.1 0.166 21.5
SG Rudy Fernandez 78 1821 1.06 0.9 1.4 0.100 13.4
C Marcus Camby 59 1540 0.49 0.1 2.8 0.116 14.8
SG Brandon Roy 47 1310 -2.16 0.8 3.4 0.077 13.9
PG Patrick Mills 64 783 -3.13 -2.7 -3.8 0.044 13.0
PG Armon Johnson 38 277 -8.32 0.1 -0.3 -0.044 9.3
C Jarron Collins 28 181 -8.84 0.1 -0.2 -0.016 1.6
PF Chris Johnson 14 138 -4.65 -1.0 -1.4 0.080 10.2
SF Luke Babbitt 24 137 -12.02 -0.7 -0.5 -0.143 1.0

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games DAL POR Prob Games DAL POR Prob
5 4 1 23.1% 7 4 3 20.6%
7 4 3 20.3% 5 4 1 19.8%
6 4 2 17.0% 6 4 2 15.6%
6 2 4 11.8% 6 2 4 14.5%
4 4 0 10.9% 7 3 4 10.7%
7 3 4 9.1% 4 4 0 8.4%
5 1 4 5.1% 5 1 4 6.8%
4 0 4 2.6% 4 0 4 3.6%
DAL 71.3% DAL 64.4%
POR 28.7% POR 35.6%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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One Response to “Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland”

  1. Ian Says:

    As a Portland fan, I'm slightly nervous about the number of pundits picking the Blazers to win. It gives me some hope that is likely not justified by Portland's recent playoff track record, especially with Nate McMillan as coach, although he has been better this year.