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Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver

Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Russell Westbrook 82 2847 4.46 0.1 4.1 0.159 23.6
SG Thabo Sefolosha 79 2049 0.10 1.5 2.2 0.097 10.4
SF Kevin Durant 78 3038 4.97 2.6 1.1 0.189 23.6
PF Serge Ibaka 82 2216 -0.13 0.6 0.5 0.164 17.6
C Kendrick Perkins 29 742 -3.35 0.5 0.6 0.063 9.6
SG James Harden 82 2189 2.40 1.1 4.0 0.156 16.4
PF Nick Collison 71 1524 -1.56 4.0 2.7 0.113 10.8
C Nazr Mohammed 75 1280 -1.30 0.1 -1.9 0.100 15.9
PG Eric Maynor 82 1200 -3.35 2.5 2.8 0.061 11.7
SF Daequan Cook 43 598 -0.17 1.5 -0.4 0.126 12.8
SG Nate Robinson 59 1013 -2.00 -0.9 -0.3 0.051 10.0
PG Royal Ivey 25 155 -3.93 -0.7 -3.8 0.060 8.2
C Cole Aldrich 18 141 -2.78 -0.4 -0.2 0.066 7.1
C Byron Mullens 13 85 -11.38 -0.1 -1.9 -0.113 3.5

Denver Nuggets

50-32, 2nd in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: George Karl (50-32)

PTS/G: 107.5 (1st of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 102.7 (21st of 30)
SRS: 4.80 (7th of 30) ▪ Pace: 95.6 (2nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 112.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.3 (16th of 30)
Expected W-L: 54-28 (7th of 30)

Arena: Pepsi Center ▪ Attendance: 696,568 (16th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Ty Lawson 80 2103 1.67 1.4 1.7 0.153 17.9
SG Arron Afflalo 69 2324 -0.22 0.6 0.0 0.128 13.6
SF Wilson Chandler 72 2401 -0.72 1.9 0.9 0.079 14.6
PF Kenyon Martin 48 1233 0.38 2.0 2.1 0.104 14.1
C Nene Hilario 75 2291 4.15 4.0 4.5 0.201 20.4
PG Raymond Felton 75 2737 1.78 0.8 1.5 0.094 16.6
SF Danilo Gallinari 62 2104 0.47 0.2 1.9 0.139 15.7
SG J.R. Smith 79 1968 2.86 2.3 3.5 0.121 16.4
PF Al Harrington 73 1665 -0.69 0.8 1.6 0.060 12.3
C Chris Andersen 45 732 1.60 0.4 2.5 0.207 19.0
SF Gary Forbes 63 791 -3.91 -1.9 -2.2 0.055 11.6
C Timofey Mozgov 45 524 -4.78 -1.8 -1.8 0.053 10.8
C Kosta Koufos 50 434 -5.44 -0.5 -2.7 0.027 12.6
PF Melvin Ely 30 366 -4.88 -0.4 0.3 0.083 8.3

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games OKC DEN Prob Games OKC DEN Prob
6 2 4 20.7% 6 2 4 25.2%
7 4 3 18.4% 5 1 4 17.8%
7 3 4 13.4% 7 3 4 14.0%
5 4 1 12.6% 7 4 3 13.9%
5 1 4 11.8% 4 0 4 12.7%
6 4 2 11.4% 5 4 1 7.2%
4 0 4 7.2% 6 4 2 7.2%
4 4 0 4.4% 4 4 0 2.1%
OKC 46.8% OKC 30.4%
DEN 53.2% DEN 69.6%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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6 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver”

  1. Matt Says:

    OKC is a gigantic question mark. I like them enough to win the title, but I like Denver enough to upset them in the first round.

  2. AHL Says:

    OKC should be the West favorite simply by injury status of other teams better than them. DEN should be favored with how their new team is performing.

    NBA Championship being played in the first round this year.

  3. huevonkiller Says:

    Nah it isn't.

  4. Matt, Colombia Says:

    How much weight should be placed on the two games they played recently? OKC seemed to be toying with them. I just don't think Denver is built for the playoffs.

  5. Mike Says:

    Where did you get the RAPM and 4-year APM numbers?

  6. Neil Paine Says:

    Because I'm a moron, I forgot to credit Jeremias Engelmann's site for that data:

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

    1,000 apologies for that; I've added a note to the bottom of each page.