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Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #5 Atlanta

Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Derrick Rose 81 3026 5.39 3.3 1.9 0.208 23.5
SG Keith Bogans 82 1461 -0.90 -0.1 0.2 0.118 9.0
SF Luol Deng 82 3208 1.69 3.7 3.8 0.149 15.5
PF Carlos Boozer 59 1882 2.76 0.6 2.2 0.149 18.8
C Joakim Noah 48 1576 3.77 0.6 2.4 0.205 18.8
SG Ronnie Brewer 81 1781 1.59 1.1 0.9 0.147 13.8
PF Taj Gibson 80 1742 -0.72 1.5 0.8 0.143 14.3
SF Kyle Korver 82 1649 0.55 1.1 2.5 0.149 13.0
PG C.J. Watson 82 1091 -0.69 0.3 1.2 0.093 12.8
C Omer Asik 82 989 -1.49 2.9 4.0 0.130 11.8
PF/C Kurt Thomas 52 1178 0.54 -0.5 1.0 0.131 10.0
SG Rasual Butler 47 770 -7.18 -1.4 -1.8 -0.009 6.2
PG Jannero Pargo 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0

Atlanta Hawks

44-38, 3rd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Larry Drew (44-38)

PTS/G: 95.0 (26th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.8 (9th of 30)
SRS: -1.10 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace: 89.3 (27th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.1 (20th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.0 (13th of 30)
Expected W-L: 39-43 (17th of 30)

Arena: Philips Arena ▪ Attendance: 641,596 (22nd of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Kirk Hinrich 72 2157 -0.49 -3.5 -0.8 0.068 12.3
SG Joe Johnson 72 2554 0.18 1.7 3.2 0.080 16.4
SF Josh Smith 77 2645 3.51 2.1 4.3 0.116 19.2
PF Al Horford 77 2704 3.61 0.8 1.4 0.179 20.7
C Jason Collins 49 593 -4.92 2.7 -1.5 0.049 5.4
SG Jamal Crawford 76 2297 -1.25 0.8 1.2 0.071 14.2
SF Marvin Williams 65 1865 -1.49 0.0 -0.4 0.102 13.5
PG Jeff Teague 70 963 -0.65 -0.5 -0.1 0.083 14.6
SF Damien Wilkins 52 676 -1.50 -1.4 -3.7 0.104 11.4
PF Josh Powell 54 653 -8.20 -1.7 -5.1 -0.012 8.0
C Hilton Armstrong 53 488 -2.79 -1.0 -2.2 0.045 8.8

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games CHI ATL Prob Games CHI ATL Prob
5 4 1 35.4% 4 4 0 41.7%
4 4 0 28.8% 5 4 1 36.3%
6 4 2 17.3% 6 4 2 13.3%
7 4 3 11.9% 7 4 3 6.5%
6 2 4 2.8% 6 2 4 1.0%
7 3 4 2.6% 7 3 4 0.9%
5 1 4 0.9% 5 1 4 0.3%
4 0 4 0.4% 4 0 4 0.1%
CHI 93.3% CHI 97.7%
ATL 6.7% ATL 2.3%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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8 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #5 Atlanta”

  1. Nathan Walker Says:

    Truth.

  2. Jason J Says:

    If Kirk can play effectively, 4-1 Bulls. If not, 4-0 Bulls.

  3. deron Says:

    @Jason J, I completely agree, the Hawks have no chance. Who really expected Orlando to win Game 6 on the road? The Hawks won a series of two "not ready for prime time teams", I think the Bulls will feast on them.

    That being said, the Hawks did avenge their playoff sweep at the hands of the Magic last year. They became the 9th team in the last 30 years win a series against the team who swept them in the playoffs the previous season.

    http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/sweep-revenge-how-teams-bounce-back.html

  4. Jerry Says:

    I hope Atlanta starts playoff On/Off hero Jason Collins again, at least when Boozer is healthy. I just don't see Smith defending Boozer or Noah

  5. Jerry Says:

    Neil, if you're not super-busy you could look at how many teams with negative SRS made it to the second round of the playoffs, and what happened to them. Should be interesting. I would bet it is less than a handful of teams

  6. Jason J Says:

    Boy was I wrong! Kudos to Joe Johnson and the Hawks big brigade.

  7. Harrison L Says:

    On Chicago's stat line you need the pts/g and opp pts/g

  8. Neil Paine Says:

    #7 - Thanks, good catch.