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Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #3 Boston

Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Mike Bibby 80 2285 -0.27 -0.2 0.3 0.085 10.9
SG Dwyane Wade 76 2824 6.69 3.6 6.7 0.218 25.6
SF LeBron James 79 3063 8.75 4.2 10.2 0.244 27.3
PF Chris Bosh 77 2795 2.07 4.2 4.9 0.177 19.4
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas 72 1145 -1.82 -0.3 1.5 0.122 12.8
PG Mario Chalmers 70 1578 0.87 1.4 0.1 0.089 10.3
SF James Jones 81 1549 -0.25 1.2 0.4 0.145 11.1
PF Joel Anthony 75 1463 -3.77 0.8 -2.2 0.107 7.3
SG Mike Miller 41 838 -0.79 -2.6 -0.9 0.090 9.7
C Erick Dampier 51 815 -3.02 -0.1 -0.9 0.109 9.7
PG Eddie House 56 978 -0.68 -0.1 0.5 0.108 11.9
PF Juwan Howard 57 592 -5.36 -0.9 -2.6 0.074 8.4

Boston Celtics

56-26, 1st in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doc Rivers (56-26)

PTS/G: 96.5 (23rd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.1 (1st of 30)
SRS: 4.83 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (18th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (2nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 57-25 (4th of 30)

Arena: TD Garden ▪ Attendance: 763,584 (11th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Rajon Rondo 68 2527 3.89 1.3 0.9 0.126 17.1
SG Ray Allen 80 2890 2.29 2.1 4.0 0.166 16.4
SF Paul Pierce 80 2774 4.70 4.7 5.2 0.201 19.7
PF Kevin Garnett 71 2220 5.06 5.7 7.5 0.194 20.6
C Jermaine O'Neal 24 431 -5.51 0.8 0.5 0.065 9.2
SF/PF Jeff Green 75 2427 -1.14 -1.9 -3.5 0.095 12.9
PF Glen Davis 78 2298 -0.73 -0.6 -1.1 0.102 12.8
C Nenad Krstic 71 1571 -2.72 -0.9 0.4 0.122 13.1
SG Von Wafer 58 552 -3.36 0.0 0.6 0.092 10.6
PG Delonte West 24 453 -1.26 -3.1 1.3 0.093 12.3
PG Carlos Arroyo 64 1185 -4.57 -0.9 -1.2 0.068 9.0
PF/C Troy Murphy 35 466 -3.42 -2.6 -0.7 0.029 8.0
SF Sasha Pavlovic 31 362 -4.86 -1.8 -3.1 0.042 6.0

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games MIA BOS Prob Games MIA BOS Prob
7 4 3 20.5% 5 4 1 24.6%
5 4 1 20.1% 7 4 3 20.0%
6 4 2 15.7% 6 4 2 17.5%
6 2 4 14.3% 4 4 0 12.1%
7 3 4 10.5% 6 2 4 10.7%
4 4 0 8.7% 7 3 4 8.4%
5 1 4 6.6% 5 1 4 4.4%
4 0 4 3.5% 4 0 4 2.2%
MIA 65.1% MIA 74.2%
BOS 34.9% BOS 25.8%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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8 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #3 Boston”

  1. Ben Says:

    I think you forgot Mario Chalmers. Maybe it will change this series, but Dampier hasn't started in a while.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Good catch, I'll fix that. I was pulling everything from these depth charts:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/depthchart?gameId=2011050114

  3. Jason J Says:

    Wow. Jeff Green's 4yAPM is worse than Pavlovic's. I know some of that is one of them playing with a bunch of rooks and one riding LeBron to wins, but still. Ugly.

    Starting to think that whole line about Boston getting the best talent in the trade might have been a little off.

  4. Matt, Colombia Says:

    Where did you hear that line? If you don't consider points per game as the end all, then it was quite clear who came out on top of that trade.

  5. Jerry Says:

    So many fun matchups. Miami fans better hope Wade is able to stay with Allen. Wade sure has a rather pedestrian defensive rating but I don't know what it is that makes him an average defender. If I'm Boston I let Wade and LeBron do whatever and shut down everyone else. Bosh VS Garnett is probably a key matchup. The benches look pretty bad compared to OKC/LAL/CHI. I'd guess that the team wins whose bench is at least contributing *something*

  6. AYC Says:

    Bob Ryan and Peter May both said Green was the better player, because he scored more. I think they were in denial. I was disappointed in Ryan, who I expected to know better....

    PS Miami has yet to prove they can execute down the stretch against a good team. Celts in 6

  7. huevonkiller Says:

    Right AYC, except for when they have executed down the stretch against good teams, from mid march on?

    If James is healthier than last season, and with Mike Miller finally benched those close losses turn Miami's way. I'd keep a short leash on Z or Bibby if they play as awful as they did against Philly.

  8. deron Says:

    The Celts just need some home cooking. Additionally, Shaq can help the team, even if all he does is clog the middle and force Miami into jumpshots; hopefully Z does not draw him 15 feet away from the basket all night.

    The Celts still have a chance to win the series; they have the next two games at home and Miami is fully capable of 35% shooting night or a meltdown. I hope this series goes to game 7; it will feel like the NBA Finals.

    http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/is-boston-really-in-trouble.html