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Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #3 Dallas

Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011

Los Angeles Lakers

57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)

PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)

Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Derek Fisher 82 2297 -0.95 2.4 0.8 0.078 8.9
SG Kobe Bryant 82 2779 5.67 1.3 4.8 0.179 23.9
SF Ron Artest 82 2410 0.13 2.2 3.5 0.087 11.2
PF Pau Gasol 82 3037 3.88 3.7 4.4 0.232 23.3
C Andrew Bynum 54 1500 2.32 1.9 2.2 0.210 21.1
PF Lamar Odom 82 2639 3.19 2.2 4.9 0.184 19.4
PG Steve Blake 79 1581 -3.30 0.0 1.2 0.055 7.5
SG Shannon Brown 82 1568 -0.60 -0.3 -3.1 0.093 13.6
SF/SG Matt Barnes 53 1020 1.64 -0.9 0.5 0.142 14.6
SF Luke Walton 54 484 -7.62 -0.2 0.8 -0.016 5.1
PF Derrick Caracter 41 215 -5.16 -1.7 -1.7 0.057 10.0
SF Devin Ebanks 20 118 -2.92 -1.4 -1.4 0.144 19.4
G Trey Johnson 8 94 -7.95 -0.4 -0.6 -0.008 8.3
C Joe Smith 16 69 -10.54 -0.3 -0.9 -0.099 -0.1

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Jason Kidd 80 2653 3.78 -0.1 1.9 0.116 14.4
SG DeShawn Stevenson 72 1158 -3.11 -0.3 0.4 0.074 9.8
SF Shawn Marion 80 2253 0.03 -2.1 0.8 0.120 17.0
PF Dirk Nowitzki 73 2504 4.89 6.6 7.8 0.213 23.4
C Tyson Chandler 74 2059 2.99 3.5 2.6 0.218 18.4
SG Jason Terry 82 2564 0.81 2.5 1.9 0.100 15.9
PG Jose Barea 81 1669 -1.65 0.5 -1.7 0.093 14.8
C Brendan Haywood 72 1331 -3.21 -1.4 1.4 0.104 11.7
SF Peja Stojakovic 33 617 -0.03 1.6 3.5 0.126 15.2
SG Rodrigue Beaubois 28 496 -0.83 -1.3 -1.6 0.022 11.4
SG Corey Brewer 69 1510 -0.75 -0.1 -0.3 0.036 11.0
PF Brian Cardinal 56 618 0.44 -0.8 1.1 0.132 9.7
C Ian Mahinmi 56 488 0.30 0.8 0.0 0.177 13.7
SF Caron Butler 29 867 -0.89 1.6 1.5 0.067 14.2

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games LAL DAL Prob Games LAL DAL Prob
7 4 3 20.5% 7 4 3 19.7%
5 4 1 20.0% 6 2 4 18.4%
6 4 2 15.7% 5 4 1 15.4%
6 2 4 14.4% 6 4 2 13.1%
7 3 4 10.6% 7 3 4 12.5%
4 4 0 8.6% 5 1 4 9.6%
5 1 4 6.7% 4 4 0 5.7%
4 0 4 3.6% 4 0 4 5.6%
LAL 64.8% LAL 53.9%
DAL 35.2% DAL 46.1%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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7 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #3 Dallas”

  1. Jason J Says:

    They have the same overall record, so I'll predict a tie. Dirk should win the series on game 7 triple overtime penalty free throws. He'll make 5 of 5, while Bryant will go 4 of 5.

    Sorry. I'm trying to get prepped to watch this so called "hockey", if it can so be called, while the NBA is locked out next year.

  2. Cort Says:

    too bad caron butler got hurt...i think dallas would definitely have a good chance to beat LA with him. they still have a chance, now that dan crawford has been called out lol

  3. Jerry Says:

    Dallas should start Stojakovic to be able to put Marion on Bryant. LA should start Odom and put either him or Artest on Nowitzki

  4. Jimmy Pedrique Says:

    It depends on who's doin' the reffing.

  5. deron Says:

    This should be an exciting series, I say Lakers in 7. The fact that Kobe hasn't played Dirk in the playoffs should not be all that surprising.

    http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/lakers-mavericks-why-havent-they-played.html

  6. Matt, Colombia Says:

    Mavs in 6 after the 2-0 lead

  7. Skip Says:

    Hey Deron... "The fact that Kobe hasn't played Dirk in the playoffs should not be all that surprising."

    Why is this not all that surprising? They've both been in the league for a while... both have been on the same team... both in the Western Conference... and both are in the playoffs consistently.