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Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis

Posted by Neil Paine on April 30, 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Russell Westbrook 82 2847 4.46 0.7 4.1 0.159 23.6
SG Thabo Sefolosha 79 2049 0.10 1.5 2.2 0.097 10.4
SF Kevin Durant 78 3038 4.97 2.9 1.1 0.189 23.6
PF Serge Ibaka 82 2216 -0.13 0.5 0.5 0.164 17.7
C Kendrick Perkins 29 742 -3.35 0.9 0.6 0.063 9.6
SG James Harden 82 2189 2.40 1.4 4.0 0.156 16.4
PF Nick Collison 71 1524 -1.56 4.1 2.7 0.113 10.8
C Nazr Mohammed 75 1280 -1.30 -0.2 -1.9 0.100 15.9
PG Eric Maynor 82 1200 -3.35 1.9 2.8 0.061 11.7
SF Daequan Cook 43 598 -0.17 0.9 -0.4 0.126 12.8
PG Royal Ivey 25 155 -3.93 -1.0 -3.8 0.060 8.2

Memphis Grizzlies

46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)

PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)

Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)

Pos Roster G Min SPM RAPM 4yAPM WS/48 PER
PG Mike Conley 81 2872 2.47 3.5 3.1 0.111 15.9
SG Tony Allen 72 1494 4.23 0.8 2.0 0.152 18.4
SF Sam Young 78 1577 -1.98 -0.2 -1.1 0.088 12.5
PF Zach Randolph 75 2724 3.14 2.5 2.4 0.185 22.6
C Marc Gasol 81 2586 1.36 0.3 2.2 0.146 16.8
SF Shane Battier 82 2375 0.02 1.7 3.6 0.103 12.3
SG O.J. Mayo 71 1869 -1.39 0.9 -0.5 0.062 12.6
PF Darrell Arthur 80 1609 -0.73 0.2 -1.0 0.113 15.7
PG Greivis Vasquez 70 860 -4.51 -2.1 -1.4 0.030 9.4
C Hamed Haddadi 31 168 -0.51 0.9 1.4 0.164 19.7
SG Xavier Henry 38 527 -7.48 -1.6 -0.7 0.021 7.0

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games OKC MEM Prob Games OKC MEM Prob
7 4 3 20.4% 5 4 1 21.6%
5 4 1 18.2% 7 4 3 20.5%
6 2 4 15.9% 6 4 2 16.4%
6 4 2 14.8% 6 2 4 13.1%
7 3 4 11.4% 7 3 4 9.8%
5 1 4 7.7% 4 4 0 9.7%
4 4 0 7.4% 5 1 4 5.8%
4 0 4 4.3% 4 0 4 3.1%
OKC 60.8% OKC 68.2%
MEM 39.2% MEM 31.8%

(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)

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4 Responses to “Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis”

  1. deron Says:

    Congrats to the Grizz, but it's sad to see the end of an era in San Antonio.
    I actually think they have a chance against the Thunder, it should be a fun series. If the Thunder were further along in the playoff growth process, it would be an easy series for them. OKC in 6 or 7.

    The Grizzlies' 12 straight losses before winning a playoff game is the longest streak since expansion began in 1949-1950.

    http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/growing-from-cubs-to-grizzlies-memphis.html

  2. Jerry Says:

    I think Memphis should start Battier instead of Young, put Battier on Durant and Allen on Westbrook.
    I also think Oklahoma should start Collison instead of Ibaka. Aside from Collison's way superior RAPM I don't see Ibaka having a chance defending Randolph, as there is a 35lbs difference

  3. Jason J Says:

    I love the Grizzlies. They've replace Denver as my favorite scrappy underdog team that is sneakily super-talented in these playoffs.

  4. James Smith Says:

    Hey let's get this lockout solved there is basketball to play. Lots of businesses rely on the season other than owners and players.