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Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #4 Oklahoma City/#8 Memphis

Posted by Neil Paine on May 14, 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Jason Kidd 90 2989 33.6 3.99 0.0 1.9 14.7 0.119
SG Jason Terry 92 2887 32.3 1.43 2.8 1.9 16.8 0.116
SF Shawn Marion 90 2562 30.9 -0.21 -2.3 0.8 16.6 0.116
PF Dirk Nowitzki 83 2885 38.1 5.08 7.0 7.8 23.8 0.217
C Tyson Chandler 84 2356 29.7 2.66 3.5 2.6 17.9 0.215
SF Peja Stojakovic 43 860 24.3 0.74 2.0 3.5 15.4 0.136
PG Jose Barea 91 1847 17.8 -1.81 0.4 -1.7 14.8 0.093
C Brendan Haywood 82 1506 17.5 -3.34 -1.2 1.4 11.4 0.101
SG D. Stevenson 82 1286 12.8 -3.21 -0.9 0.4 9.3 0.069
SG Corey Brewer 74 1528 3.6 -0.58 0.0 -0.3 11.1 0.037
PF Brian Cardinal 60 625 1.8 0.57 -0.8 1.1 9.9 0.136
C Ian Mahinmi 58 493 2.5 0.28 0.7 0.0 13.7 0.177

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Oklahoma City Arena ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

Playoffs:
Tied NBA Western Conference Semifinals (3-3) versus Memphis Grizzlies
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-1) versus Denver Nuggets

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Russell Westbrook 93 3255 37.1 4.24 0.7 4.1 23.2 0.153
SG James Harden 93 2533 31.3 2.63 1.0 4.0 16.5 0.160
SF Kevin Durant 89 3498 41.8 5.15 2.7 1.1 23.6 0.195
C Serge Ibaka 93 2548 30.2 -0.23 0.8 0.5 17.5 0.161
C Kendrick Perkins 40 1054 28.4 -3.87 0.6 0.6 8.4 0.052
PF Nick Collison 82 1768 22.2 -1.29 4.0 2.7 11.1 0.118
SG Thabo Sefolosha 90 2277 20.7 -0.27 1.8 2.2 10.3 0.093
PG Eric Maynor 93 1340 12.7 -2.98 1.9 2.8 12.2 0.066
SG Daequan Cook 54 735 12.5 -0.42 1.2 -0.4 12.3 0.118
C Nazr Mohammed 86 1406 11.5 -1.70 -0.5 -1.9 14.9 0.092
PG Royal Ivey 26 159 4.0 -3.25 -1.0 -3.8 9.2 0.077
PG Nate Robinson 60 1017 4.0 -1.98 -1.2 -0.3 10.0 0.051

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games DAL OKC Prob Games DAL OKC Prob
7 4 3 20.5% 7 4 3 20.3%
5 4 1 18.9% 5 4 1 17.7%
6 2 4 15.3% 6 2 4 16.4%
6 4 2 15.1% 6 4 2 14.5%
7 3 4 11.1% 7 3 4 11.6%
4 4 0 7.9% 5 1 4 8.1%
5 1 4 7.3% 4 4 0 7.1%
4 0 4 4.0% 4 0 4 4.5%
DAL 62.4% DAL 59.5%
OKC 37.6% OKC 40.5%

Memphis Grizzlies

46-36, 4th in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)

PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)

Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)

Playoffs:
Tied NBA Western Conference Semifinals (3-3) versus Oklahoma City Thunder
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus San Antonio Spurs

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Mike Conley 93 3339 38.9 2.12 3.5 3.1 15.6 0.105
SG O.J. Mayo 83 2199 27.5 -1.24 1.4 -0.5 12.6 0.064
SG Tony Allen 84 1817 26.9 3.25 0.8 2.0 16.9 0.130
PF Zach Randolph 87 3201 39.8 3.23 2.5 2.4 22.5 0.184
C Marc Gasol 93 3068 40.2 1.66 0.7 2.2 17.2 0.149
SF Shane Battier 94 2686 25.9 -0.22 1.7 3.6 12.1 0.102
SG Sam Young 90 1825 20.7 -2.42 -0.3 -1.1 12.3 0.081
PF Darrell Arthur 92 1793 15.3 -0.89 -0.1 -1.0 15.7 0.109
SG Greivis Vasquez 82 994 11.2 -3.69 -1.9 -1.4 10.7 0.049
C Hamed Haddadi 39 196 3.5 -1.74 0.9 1.4 18.0 0.139
PF Leon Powe 33 340 4.0 -2.69 -1.4 1.1 14.9 0.088
PG Ishmael Smith 47 452 2.5 -5.51 -1.5 -1.3 8.0 -0.011

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games DAL MEM Prob Games DAL MEM Prob
5 4 1 22.9% 5 4 1 25.6%
7 4 3 20.4% 7 4 3 19.7%
6 4 2 16.9% 6 4 2 17.8%
6 2 4 12.0% 4 4 0 13.0%
4 4 0 10.7% 6 2 4 10.0%
7 3 4 9.2% 7 3 4 7.9%
5 1 4 5.2% 5 1 4 4.1%
4 0 4 2.7% 4 0 4 2.0%
DAL 70.8% DAL 76.0%
MEM 29.2% MEM 24.0%

(Player stats are combined regular-season + playoffs. 2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann.)

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