You Are Here > Basketball-Reference.com > BBR Blog > NBA and College Basketball Analysis

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.

Basketball-Reference.com // Sports Reference

For more from Neil, check out his new work at BasketballProspectus.com.

BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings

Posted by Neil Paine on May 27, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on May 26, 2011:

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Rk Prv Team Cnf Div W L WPct Off Rk Prv Def Rk Prv Ovr Off Def Ovr
1 1 Miami Heat E SE 70 27 0.722 4.31 1 1 -3.23 5 5 7.54 4.69 -1.72 6.41
2 2 Chicago Bulls E C 71 27 0.724 0.66 13 12 -6.19 2 2 6.85 1.49 -5.81 7.30
3 3 Los Angeles Lakers W P 61 31 0.663 3.20 7 7 -2.62 8 8 5.81 0.67 -4.18 4.85
4 4 San Antonio Spurs W SW 63 25 0.716 3.71 5 5 -1.97 9 9 5.68 3.86 0.83 3.02
5 5 Dallas Mavericks W SW 69 28 0.711 2.82 8 8 -2.79 6 6 5.61 4.15 -4.23 8.38
6 6 Boston Celtics E A 61 30 0.670 -1.06 21 21 -6.30 1 1 5.24 -3.55 -5.73 2.18
7 7 Orlando Magic E SE 54 34 0.614 0.20 15 15 -4.68 3 3 4.87 -1.67 -5.33 3.66
8 8 Denver Nuggets W NW 51 36 0.586 4.15 2 2 -0.35 13 14 4.50 2.34 -5.83 8.17
9 9 Oklahoma City Thunder W NW 64 35 0.646 3.79 4 4 -0.35 14 13 4.14 5.21 -1.70 6.91
10 10 Memphis Grizzlies W SW 53 42 0.558 0.07 16 16 -2.70 7 7 2.77 0.85 -3.54 4.39
11 11 Houston Rockets W SW 43 39 0.524 3.96 3 3 1.63 20 20 2.32 3.63 -1.20 4.82
12 12 Portland Trail Blazers W NW 50 38 0.568 1.49 10 10 -0.22 15 15 1.71 3.21 -0.77 3.98
13 13 New Orleans Hornets W SW 48 40 0.545 -0.92 18 18 -1.89 10 10 0.98 0.72 2.82 -2.10
14 14 Philadelphia 76ers E A 42 45 0.483 -0.75 17 17 -1.53 11 11 0.79 -2.12 -1.61 -0.51
15 15 New York Knickerbockers E A 42 44 0.488 3.57 6 6 3.49 27 27 0.08 4.89 6.13 -1.24
Rk Prv Team Cnf Div W L WPct Off Rk Prv Def Rk Prv Ovr Off Def Ovr
16 16 Phoenix Suns W P 40 42 0.488 2.29 9 9 2.97 22 22 -0.68 0.91 2.34 -1.43
17 17 Atlanta Hawks E SE 50 44 0.532 -1.02 20 20 0.18 16 16 -1.20 -2.04 0.78 -2.82
18 18 Milwaukee Bucks E C 35 47 0.427 -5.84 30 30 -4.51 4 4 -1.33 -6.24 -4.15 -2.09
19 19 Indiana Pacers E C 38 49 0.437 -2.51 23 23 -0.83 12 12 -1.68 -4.15 0.21 -4.36
20 20 Utah Jazz W NW 39 43 0.476 0.98 11 11 2.78 21 21 -1.80 0.38 5.13 -4.75
21 21 Golden State Warriors W P 36 46 0.439 0.92 12 13 3.23 25 25 -2.31 1.67 2.39 -0.71
22 22 Los Angeles Clippers W P 32 50 0.390 -1.89 22 22 1.27 19 19 -3.17 -2.95 -0.92 -2.03
23 23 Detroit Pistons E C 30 52 0.366 0.64 14 14 5.13 29 29 -4.50 3.36 8.65 -5.28
24 24 Charlotte Bobcats E SE 34 48 0.415 -3.74 25 25 1.06 17 17 -4.81 -4.44 4.02 -8.46
25 25 Sacramento Kings W P 24 58 0.293 -3.97 26 26 1.26 18 18 -5.23 -2.56 1.96 -4.52
26 26 Minnesota Timberwolves W NW 17 65 0.207 -3.18 24 24 3.22 24 24 -6.40 -4.29 3.60 -7.89
27 27 Toronto Raptors E A 22 60 0.268 -1.00 19 19 6.07 30 30 -7.07 -1.60 8.43 -10.03
28 28 New Jersey Nets E A 24 58 0.293 -4.06 27 27 3.07 23 23 -7.13 -3.66 5.03 -8.69
29 29 Washington Wizards E SE 23 59 0.280 -4.72 28 28 3.25 26 26 -7.97 -4.98 4.80 -9.79
30 30 Cleveland Cavaliers E C 19 63 0.232 -5.08 29 29 4.68 28 28 -9.76 -6.42 2.18 -8.60
HCA 3.43 3.43
LgRtg 107.99 108.23

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

ShareThis

18 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings”

  1. Neil Paine Says:

    Ken Pomeroy-ized:

    Full-Season Post-Deadline
    Rank Team adjOE adjDE Pyth adjOE adjDE Pyth
    1 Miami Heat 112.30 104.76 0.726 112.92 106.51 0.694
    2 Chicago Bulls 108.65 101.80 0.713 109.72 102.42 0.724
    3 Los Angeles Lakers 111.18 105.37 0.680 108.91 104.05 0.654
    4 San Antonio Spurs 111.70 106.01 0.675 112.09 109.07 0.595
    5 Dallas Mavericks 110.81 105.20 0.674 112.38 104.00 0.747
    6 Boston Celtics 106.93 101.69 0.669 104.68 102.50 0.573
    7 Orlando Magic 108.18 103.31 0.656 106.56 102.90 0.620
    8 Denver Nuggets 112.14 107.64 0.640 110.57 102.40 0.746
    9 Oklahoma City Thunder 111.78 107.64 0.629 113.44 106.53 0.707
    10 Memphis Grizzlies 108.06 105.29 0.590 109.09 104.69 0.640
    11 Houston Rockets 111.95 109.62 0.573 111.86 107.03 0.650
    12 Portland Trail Blazers 109.47 107.77 0.555 111.44 107.47 0.624
    13 New Orleans Hornets 107.07 106.10 0.532 108.95 111.05 0.434
    14 Philadelphia 76ers 107.24 106.46 0.526 106.11 106.62 0.483
    15 New York Knickerbockers 111.56 111.48 0.502 113.12 114.36 0.462
    Rank Team adjOE adjDE Pyth adjOE adjDE Pyth
    16 Phoenix Suns 110.28 110.96 0.479 109.14 110.58 0.454
    17 Atlanta Hawks 106.97 108.17 0.461 106.19 109.01 0.409
    18 Milwaukee Bucks 102.15 103.47 0.455 101.99 104.08 0.429
    19 Indiana Pacers 105.48 107.16 0.445 104.09 108.44 0.360
    20 Utah Jazz 108.97 110.77 0.443 108.62 113.36 0.355
    21 Golden State Warriors 108.91 111.22 0.427 109.90 110.62 0.477
    22 Los Angeles Clippers 106.09 109.26 0.398 105.28 107.31 0.434
    23 Detroit Pistons 108.62 113.12 0.362 111.60 116.88 0.344
    24 Charlotte Bobcats 104.25 109.05 0.347 103.79 112.26 0.250
    25 Sacramento Kings 104.02 109.25 0.335 105.67 110.19 0.357
    26 Minnesota Timberwolves 104.81 111.21 0.304 103.94 111.84 0.264
    27 Toronto Raptors 106.99 114.06 0.290 106.64 116.66 0.221
    28 New Jersey Nets 103.93 111.06 0.283 104.57 113.26 0.246
    29 Washington Wizards 103.27 111.24 0.261 103.25 113.03 0.220
    30 Cleveland Cavaliers 102.91 112.66 0.220 101.81 110.42 0.243
    HCA 0.609 0.609
  2. Anon Says:

    Seems like these ratings have been vindicated to some extent. I remember during the duldroms of the Heat season after lots of 'close' losses, they were rated in the top 3 and lots of people were questioning the ratings. The Heat also seem to vindicate the posts of whether the head-to-head record against a team is more predictive than the team's overall record.

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Heat have been doing a whole lot of vindicating this past month.

  4. Anon Says:

    For example, take a look at the very first comment here, back in mid-February, when the Heat were ranked #1: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8856

    "Why is Miami ahead of Boston when they have lost all three head-to-heads against them?

    I mean, stats are great and all but stats are supposed to bear some relationship with reality."

    The reality was that Miami was losing close to good teams and crushing bad teams. The post I will remember most is a very early post showing that crushing bad teams is in fact a much better predictor of success than close wins or losses versus good teams (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8159).

  5. Ben Says:

    A little surprised that Dallas hasn't climbed the rankings more. I assume if you threw out the games without Dirk, they'd be up near Miami and Chicago.

    It's funny that in such an up and down season, the Heat have been pretty steady in these rating.

  6. Matt Says:

    It's funny that even Chicago at 71-27 has yet reach the 72 win mark posted by the '96 Bulls.

  7. Bill Says:

    The Boston-Miami series was skewed some by Rondo's dislocated elbow. The playoff head-to-head lineups were very different from the regular season lineups.

  8. huevonkiller Says:

    The post-deadline seems a little off.

    If the Lakers suffered major injuries, and it seems they did with Pau's legs and Kobe's ankle against New Orleans, then LA's rating is disingenuous. Bryant took 5 attempts at the rim the entire dallas series and made 2 of them. San Antonio was also derailed by Manu's arm. That's the top two seeds right there. Probably has some domino effect on playoff ratings.

  9. huevonkiller Says:

    #7

    Miami's rotation got a bit better you mean, even when they were losing it was a toss-up series at worst.

  10. Michael Says:

    Interesting that Miami doesn't look so hot post-deadline, but I imagine that is entirely attributable to their 5-game losing streak to kick off the final stretch. Since then, well...27-5 in games the Big 3 played (1-1 without at least 1 of them). Beat a lot of good teams during that stretch too: LA, SA, Memphis, Atlanta, Denver, Boston, Chicago, Philly.

  11. huevonkiller Says:

    A playoff rating would certainly be interesting, that's a more important cutoff point.

  12. Bill Says:

    #9

    No, I'm referring to the argument that head-to-head doesn't matter. It may not, but the Miami-Boston series is a disingenuous example. Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost. It was no longer the same lineups going head to head.

  13. Anon Says:

    "Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost."

    They went up 2-0 with a healthy Rondo playing...

  14. huevonkiller Says:

    I'm more interested in how the Lakers had both of their superstars injured.

  15. DSMok1 Says:

    I've posted my Pre-Finals Bayesian Power Ratings here: http://bit.ly/jKDy9s

    I've got the Heat 0.8 points/100Poss better than the Mavs.

  16. cort Says:

    miami has gotten better as the season wore on and they learned to play together better. the return of haslem is a boost as well. i want dallas to win and like dirk, but haslem did a pretty good job on him in the 2006 Finals. he got up in him, played him rough and forced him to shoot quicker than he wanted to. intimidated him a bit, but i dont think he can do that this time around. dirk is playing his best and haslem is coming off injury.
    now dirk is taking his time and not letting the defense dictate him into taking a quick shot, instead analyzing the situation and driving/posting more. i hope dirk takes it to haslem, but we will see what happens. james will probably guard him some at key moments too.
    if dirk gets fair treatment from refs and doesnt let himself get rushed, he should be able to figure out how to beat either player with his size, body control and skill level. he is playing with more confidence and fire now than in 2006.

  17. huevonkiller Says:

    Joel Anthony will be assigned to him, as will Bosh at some points.

  18. Sean Says:

    Earlier in the season, Miami's power rating should NOT have been higher than Boston's. Boston was the better team. Miami BECAME better as the season wore on. If you look at the early season head to head---when Boston was better despite a lower power rating---the dynamic of their team was different. 2 of the first 3 matchups came within the 1st ten games of the season. Boston WAS better. I don't care what the power rating said. The reason(s) why that changed include Miami growing and becoming more cohesive and some OLD men in Boston experiencing attrition. If you look at the boxscores of the 1st two games, Shaq (WHO?!?) was playing 18-22 minutes per game and Pierce and Garnett and Allen were all playing 39-42 minutes per game. In the 2nd game (I think), Pierce scored ONE point. And Boston ROLLED. That's how good they were. That's how much BETTER they were than Miami at the time. The power ratings were NOT picking that up. That was a problem with the power ratings. Boston led by 15 points or so at each halftime of those 1st two games-----and by more than that after 3 Quarters of the 3rd game. They were SLAPPING Miami around. Shaq was out for the 3rd game, but Perkins was back. Neither contributed anything by season's end. By season's end, Miami was CLEARLY better.

    Boston did NOT lose the playoff series because of Rondo's injury---though it did impact them to a degree. They lost because they were old and because Miami by season's end was just better. Miami evolved during the season while Boston decomposed. Probably around the time of their 3rd meeting, they were eye to eye, passing each other on the mall escalators-----Miami going UP, Boston going DOWN. Boston also never adjusted to the trade(s) Ainge made. He gambled and lost on what Shaq could contribute.