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NBA Finals Preview: Miami vs. Dallas

Posted by Neil Paine on May 28, 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Dallas Mavericks
Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-1) versus Boston Celtics
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Philadelphia 76ers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Mike Bibby 95 2613 21.9 -1.26 -0.3 0.3 9.8 0.068
SG Dwyane Wade 91 3418 39.6 6.44 3.6 6.7 25.4 0.214
SF LeBron James 94 3723 44.0 8.63 4.1 10.2 27.2 0.246
PF Chris Bosh 92 3393 39.9 2.08 4.4 4.9 19.5 0.180
C Joel Anthony 90 1914 30.1 -3.53 1.0 -2.2 7.5 0.105
PG Mario Chalmers 85 1915 22.5 0.85 1.2 0.1 10.2 0.089
SF James Jones 93 1821 22.7 -0.12 1.5 0.4 11.1 0.148
SG Mike Miller 53 959 10.1 -1.02 -1.7 -0.9 9.6 0.088
PF Udonis Haslem 19 459 19.0 -1.70 0.8 -0.9 11.0 0.098
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas 81 1249 11.6 -2.24 -0.9 1.5 12.6 0.117
PF Juwan Howard 63 623 5.2 -5.49 -1.1 -2.6 8.3 0.075
PG Eddie House 61 1001 4.6 -1.08 -0.1 0.5 11.3 0.097
C Jamaal Magloire 21 176 6.0 1.26 -0.4 0.7 12.5 0.168
C Erick Dampier 51 815 -3.02 -0.2 -0.9 9.7 0.109
C Dexter Pittman 2 11 -17.51 0.2 0.2 -6.4 -0.246

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Miami Heat
Won NBA Western Conference Finals (4-1) versus Oklahoma City Thunder
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Jason Kidd 95 3173 34.7 4.25 0.1 1.9 15.0 0.122
SG DeShawn Stevenson 87 1387 15.3 -3.56 -1.1 0.4 8.6 0.056
SF Shawn Marion 95 2729 31.7 -0.08 -2.2 0.8 16.7 0.117
PF Dirk Nowitzki 88 3088 38.9 4.98 7.2 7.8 24.1 0.219
C Tyson Chandler 89 2515 30.4 2.54 3.8 2.6 17.7 0.212
SG Jason Terry 97 3053 32.6 1.25 3.1 1.9 16.5 0.112
SF Peja Stojakovic 48 941 21.6 -0.16 2.4 3.5 14.5 0.114
PG Jose Barea 96 1931 17.5 -1.52 0.2 -1.7 15.4 0.099
C Brendan Haywood 87 1580 16.6 -3.33 -1.2 1.4 11.5 0.105
SG Corey Brewer 75 1533 3.8 -0.58 -0.1 -0.3 11.0 0.037
PF Brian Cardinal 60 625 1.8 0.56 -0.8 1.1 9.9 0.135
C Ian Mahinmi 59 494 2.0 0.30 0.5 0.0 13.6 0.176
PG Rodrigue Beaubois 28 496 -0.83 -1.7 -1.6 11.4 0.022
SG Dominique Jones 18 135 -6.28 -0.7 -0.7 10.6 0.007
SF Caron Butler 29 867 -0.89 1.2 1.5 14.2 0.067

Predictions (based on these rankings)

Full-Season Post-Deadline
Games MIA DAL Prob Games MIA DAL Prob
6 4 2 22.6% 5 1 4 21.1%
7 4 3 20.5% 7 4 3 16.6%
5 4 1 13.9% 6 2 4 16.2%
5 1 4 10.4% 7 3 4 14.0%
7 3 4 10.3% 6 4 2 13.5%
6 2 4 9.8% 4 0 4 9.3%
4 4 0 9.0% 5 4 1 6.1%
4 0 4 3.4% 4 4 0 3.2%
MIA 66.1% MIA 39.4%
DAL 33.9% DAL 60.6%

(Player stats are combined regular-season + playoffs. 2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann.)

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8 Responses to “NBA Finals Preview: Miami vs. Dallas”

  1. Jerry Says:

    Vegas seems to believe the full season rankings more than the post-deadline.
    It's unfortunate for Dallas that Haslem got back just now. He's one more body they can throw at Nowitzki should Bosh get in foul trouble. Or maybe they start him and put Bosh on Chandler? Or LeBron on Nowitzki? That would be interesting to see

  2. Sean Says:

    I think we're going to see LeBron on Dirk in short spurts, but not for entire games. LeBron has too many responsibilites on offense to be drained on Dirk, save for critical moments.

    Should be fun!

  3. Kevin Rossen Says:

    It's kind of interesting that in the year of blockbuster trades that two teams who didn't do any major moves are facing each others in the Finals. The Heat definitely didn't really need to make any moves based on their core, but the Mavs got lots of criticism for not making any moves at the trade deadline.

    I also think it's interesting that the odds are almost flip-flopped for pre/post-deadline, especially since neither team really did alterations to their rosters. Should be a fun matchup!

  4. huevonkiller Says:

    #3 Yeah apparently the Heat played much better against Chicago than they did the first two rounds. That is attributable to a few things: benching Z plus the return of Haslem, and the Celtics weren't quite as bad as their post-deadline numbers. Shorter rotations in the playoffs always helps them, although they were hurt. The Lakers were more gravely injured imo though.

  5. Matt Says:

    #3 It's not fair to say the Heat "didn't do any major moves" when they signed Lebron/Bosh in the offseason and just got Miller and Haslem back from injury. Thats 4 of their top 5 guys who entirely change the roster. I think I know what you mean concerning trades, but this is a team that made HUGE moves and is just now seeing what they're capable of.

  6. Kevin Rosse Says:

    Oh, sorry for the confusion. I was referring to no major moves at the trade deadline. Of course they overhauled their roster in the offseason, but stayed with what they had at the deadline. If you look at the chances of winning, Dallas' % of winning goes up post-deadline even with no moves.

  7. ray Says:

    Well we lost game one but no need to panic! see story.. http://mavsfansunite.com/?p=84

  8. huevonkiller Says:

    Yeah it was nice to see the game 1 victory but the series is not over, it will be tough.