Posted by Neil Paine on June 3, 2011
Dallas' Series Win Probability Graph after Game 2:
Dallas' Quarter-by-Quarter Series Win Probability Data:
(For more info on the Series Win Probability methodology, click here)
Honestly, just looking at the quarter-by-quarter stats vastly understates the magnitude of Dallas' comeback.
They were down 88-73 with 6 minutes and 19 seconds left in the game. Using the win probability methodology Wayne Winston laid out in Mathletics, a team winning by 15 at home with 6.32 minutes left in the game should win 99.978% of the time, putting the chances of a Dallas comeback at 1 in 4,550. As a second opinion, Ed Kupfer's win probability metric says a team winning by 15 at home with 6:19 to play should win 99.592% of the time, making the Mavs' comeback a 1 in 245 proposition.
Either way, Miami was less than a half of a percentage point away from taking a 2-0 lead to Dallas and giving themselves a 79% probability of winning a championship. Instead, they now sit at 46%. It's not quite on the level of Dallas blowing a 90% chance in 2006... but it's shockingly close.