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Layups: Have Mavericks found a recipe to defend LeBron?

Posted by Neil Paine on June 13, 2011

Have Mavericks found a recipe to defend LeBron?: From Weak Side Awareness -- Lost in all the analysis is the fact that Dallas seems to have figured out how to stop LeBron James.

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55 Responses to “Layups: Have Mavericks found a recipe to defend LeBron?”

  1. wiLQ Says:

    Wow, big thanks for the lay-up.
    Does it mean that you agree with the premise or explanation or both?

  2. Heretic Says:

    I'm not sure that the Mavs fully succeeded in making Wade the alpha dog. Wade averaged 18.2 FGA and 8.6 FTA during the regular season (in 37.2 minutes) and 18 FGA and 8.2 FTA in the Finals (in 38.9 minutes, if I calculated correctly). Even if the pace was somewhat slower it looks like Wade used his usual number of possessions.

    I could not recognize LeBron in these Finals. Bring the 2009 version and the Mavs would be pounded by 20 in every game and swept.

    I think the Heat will continue to struggle offensively unless a clear hierarchy will be established. It worked well in Cleveland. Also, worth noticing is the fact that LeBron and Wade are both better when the other is on the bench.

  3. wiLQ Says:

    "I'm not sure that the Mavs fully succeeded in making Wade the alpha dog"
    But that wasn't their point to fully succeed in that department ;-)
    They did double-team him from time to time but IMHO not as often as LeBron and it wasn't even close [is there a stat for that?].
    IMHO Mavs assumed "let's stop one of them because other 2 stars and the rest of rotation won't be enough for us".

  4. huevonkiller Says:

    Dallas looked a lot fresher I think that's the biggest difference.

    They didn't need Dirk to play heavy minutes and they still breezed through the season AND playoffs. Their depth is impressive.

  5. AYC Says:

    The goal wasn't to make Wade the alpha, it was to prevent LBJ from playing that role. You know, cuz Bron doesn't know what to do when the ball isn't in his hands.

  6. Anon Says:

    Really, AYC? Some of his best games in the playoffs came with him doing JUST that, playing off the ball...he doesn't play well in one series and now he doesn't know how?

  7. Grouse Says:

    You mean it's not because LeBron is a lazy douchebag loser?

    Chandler and Marion played very very well in the series. Despite having had several years to work on his jump shot, LeBron is still vulnerable to teams that wall off the paint. The Mavs really keyed on him and he was reading their defense and making passes. Certainly he could and should have done more, particularly as a scorer. He can have a bad game now and then, and the Mavs can defend him well, but in a 6-7 game series he should have at least one or two big games in the Finals. It's not too much to ask, even if Dallas is defending him very well. For all the comparisons to Magic Johnson, LeBron has shown truly elite scoring ability and it's not enough for him to go out and score 17 or 18 points.

    I think Wade and James were a bit frustrated with not getting foul calls. Perhaps it made James hesitate to bully his way into the paint (which he should have done anyway). I think Bosh was far too hesitant on kick-outs. He botched a lot of open elbow jumpers created by dribble penetration by not shooting quickly. I think the Dallas offense really outplayed and outcoached the Heat defense in the last few games of the series.

  8. k Says:

    Yeah. Here's the key: play against him in the Finals.

  9. Jerrod Says:

    I thought the Mavs defended him very well. But Wade wasn't screaming at him in Game 3 for no reason. James was totally detached for the larger part of this series, and wasn't doing anything to challenge the defense against him. He really needs to work on playing off the ball and with his back to the basket. I give Kidd tons of credit it, but there's really no excuse for prime LeBron not blowing past the 38 year old.

  10. P Middy Says:

    Same tactics used by all the teams that have vanquished LeBron in the Playoffs, no? The difference is that Bron stopped getting calls and stopped hitting jumpers and then stopped being aggressive. He gots calls and hit jumpers against Boston and Chicago, and thus never stopped being aggressive.

    He's too talented, too good for any defense to get in his head like that - especially when he has Wade and Bosh at his disposal.

  11. huevonkiller Says:

    #9

    Yes there is a reason, he didn't look as explosive even in the Chicago series.

    Jerrod Wade took the entire ECF series off and had a much lighter workload throughout the playoffs. At every round LeBron was defended by the superior perimeter defender as well.

    LeBron should have yelled at Wade for playing his worst playoff series against Chicago, it goes both ways. More selevtive criticism.

    #7 Yeah Wade should have had a couple of elite games against Chicago.....

    No he didn't, that's not that simple.

    And AYC.... How would you know? The Heat outscored the Mavs easily with their playoff lineups even with off LeBron. LeBron had less energy for this series.

  12. huevonkiller Says:

    *selective

    Also I meant to say, in the regular season Miami's playoff lineups outscored Dallas 87-73. It doesn't matter if LeBron was off the game was flowing well. LeBron averaged 10 FTs a game against Dallas, and struggled in different areas. During the Finals he'd get to the rim but with few FTs, and wouldn't hit jumpers. That's the complete opposite of the December 20 LeBron.

  13. King Kong Says:

    At some point we're going to run out of excuses and just admit that he doesn't the intangibles to win

  14. huevonkiller Says:

    #13

    At some point you'll have to back that statement up. Even with his bad outings he's still better than players with multiple rings like Kobe Bryant.

  15. King Kong Says:

    #14

    Actually, LeBron James has the worst regular season to Finals PPG dropoff in history

    Source: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/30208/dirk-shines-again-in-4th-brings-home-title

    Now that might just be a bad series, but he's on the list twice! I don't see Kobe's name up there even though he's been in 7 Finals...

  16. huevonkiller Says:

    #15

    The question I ask is why you're obsessed with only looking at the Finals, when teams often play better, if not comparable teams, in the earlier rounds? Wade plays terrible against Chicago he doesn't average 31 PPG against them.

    Yeah Kobe had an even worse Finals, even though he was fresher. Thanks for reminding me.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01/gamelog/2004/

    Oh and Kobe in 2006 when he went from 28 PER to 20 PER, and choked a 3-1 lead in his prime season. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01/gamelog/2006/

  17. King Kong Says:

    Additionally, Miami blew huge leads in the 4th quarter multiple times

    LeBron James was their leading scorer in the regular season and playoffs and yet he scored 0 points in crunch time (5 mins or less, 5 points or less). You can talk about Miami defence giving up runs, but if LeBron doesn't disappear, they win Game 2.

    So they're up 2-0 going to Dallas and I doubt Dallas would win 3 in a row. So let's say it's 3-2 going back to Miami and it's a completely different series.

    Of course, if LeBron didn't disappear in the other games, it would have been 4-1 or a sweep

  18. huevonkiller Says:

    He made the Finals at age 22, I think you're skimming over that fact, and against the Spurs not the soft Mavs defense.

    KK you just can't deal with the fact that you're ignoring matchups. If Miami faces Chicago in the Finals Wade doesn't go off and LeBron does.

    King Kong they don't win game 1 or 3 without James either.

  19. huevonkiller Says:

    #17

    I still haven't seen you address the real matter here. No superstar this year tried to play 44 minutes a game, Dirk gets tons of rest it does matter.

  20. Persef Says:

    #12

    huevonkiller Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    *selective

    Also I meant to say, in the regular season Miami's playoff lineups outscored Dallas 87-73. It doesn't matter if LeBron was off the game was flowing well.
    ------

    are we talking about the same regular season, in which the Mavs simply swept the season series against the Heat?

  21. King Kong Says:

    # 17

    uhh Kobe was as young or younger in the Finals

    I'm not even sure what your argument is here. LeBron has had a historically bad dropoff in these Finals, he was absolutely absent in crunch time, and given how many of the games were decided on the last few possesions, that's just inexcusable

    Yeah we can talk about Dallas defense and the minutes LeBron is playing but the fact is, if he doesn't go scoreless in crunch time, Miami wins this series

  22. huevonkiller Says:

    #20

    Persef-

    Not sure why you were confused about my comment, their non-playoff lineups lost. Their playoff ones dominated. LeBron wasn't as fresh to me in the Finals and the stats seem to back that up.

    #21

    Uhhhhhh

    King Kong it is #16 you need to address, and it doesn't matter that Kobe is not on the list his series was worse. The fact that he has fresher legs for the post-season is a larger indictment against him. What, is he not capable of averaging 30 PPG? Ok then.

    Not really getting the point, if he plays in the western conference his name wouldn't be on the list. You're obsessing over a pointless fact, and yes every player has a series or two that are pretty ugly.

    Dwyane Wade's series in 2007 when he got swept is worse, Dwyane Wade's 2010 ECF series against Chicago was worse, you're obsessing over the Finals because you lose otherwise. Every round in the playoffs counts, stats are related to the matchups one faces on the court.

    Why is it that you're so interested in 22 year old LeBron James? He clearly overachieved, if he gets knocked out in the ECF his stats would be prettier like 80's Jordan. Jordan needed the ball more in his hands and plays less potent defense, statistically.

  23. Persef Says:

    huevonkiller Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    #20

    Persef-

    Not sure why you were confused about my comment, their non-playoff lineups lost. Their playoff ones dominated. LeBron wasn't as fresh to me in the Finals and the stats seem to back that up.

    ----------

    the oldest lineup in the NBA didn't look fresh either (I'm talking about Dallas and their bunch of 38 years old)

    plus Dallas played the finals without their second best player (Caron Butler) being injured for the rest of the season, without their 4th best scorer (Roddy) out with a broken foot (twice)
    plus, in their regular season meeting they held (an absolut fresh) Lebron to 5-19 that equals 26% FG and 6-17 (equals 35% FG)
    all points towards Dallas simply outclassing Lebron in the regular season AND the playoffs. even without their 2nd best player, starting calibre Center and starting SG off the court because of injuries.

    you can spin it all you want, Dallas dominated Lebron and Miami in the playoffs and the postseason. and don't talk about being tired lol, the oldest team in the league (Mavericks) could complain about being tired, especially since their injury ridden team had to use a even shorter rotation than Miami
    (see game 5, Miami gone 10 deep, Dallas 9)

    there you have it

  24. Persef Says:

    *in the playoffs AND the regular season

  25. King Kong Says:

    #22

    I didn't bring up 22 year old LeBron James, you did

    And of course the Finals matter. We are talking about the best player in the league not choking, or even underachieving, but disappearing when his team needs him the most. This isn't some made up 'killer look' thing, it is backed up by the PPG drop and his crunch time stats.

    Why are LeBrons amazing accomplishments and stats lauded but his terrible Finals games are ignored? You say it's about matchups, but doesn't that mean his great PER and efficiency is because of matchups too?

    And yes, obviously LeBron played huge minutes but that's the challenge of winning a ring - winning four rounds in a row. Should we discount Kobe's bad stats in game 7 because he played 12 rounds in the last 3 years?

  26. Jason J Says:

    "Jordan needed the ball more in his hands and plays less potent defense, statistically."

    Do you mean when they were both 22? I'm just curious, because it seems like since Jordan's a better jumpshooter, cutter, and post player he was able to impact the offense more easily without dominating the ball than LeBron, but Jordan didn't necessarily have those skills by age 22, so that would make sense to favor LeBron at that age.

  27. EJ Says:

    Just tell him that it's a big game and he'll choke.

  28. huevonkiller Says:

    @23

    Seems you're confused, why on earth would Dallas's top three players be tired? Stop comparing Jason Kidd to LeBron that's just funny. Jason Terry comes off the bench.

    Persef Dallas doesn't even need Dirk to play 35 MPG to be an elite team. Dirk is not a great defensive player either his career D-rating in the post-season is higher than in the regular season.

    The opposite is true for James he expends much more energy defensively and handles every position for Miami, there's nobody like that on Dallas. Tyson Chandler doesn't crack 30 MPG. The facts are what they are, Dallas is a very deep team with a finesse style and a much larger rotation of players.

  29. huevonkiller Says:

    #25

    King Kong if you can't even remember your own post just a while ago... What is the point then?

    Look at what you stated in #15, no I didn't bring up 22 year old James, you did. You've already decided he doesn't have the intangibles, but when I asked you for some evidence you give me a narrow set of data points, ignoring every year LeBron has dominated in the post-season and lost before the Finals. The series leverage index clearly favors LeBron over any of his peers in the game today.

    If LeBron decided to play for the Memphis Grizzlies then he wouldn't be on that list, your link was pointless. You're being stubborn, what LeBron did at 22 was by far overachieving. And Jordan never had as good a post-season as LeBron did in 2009, it is all balanced out in the end.

  30. sean Says:

    @ #26...

    Jason, I read a great interview? with Steve Kerr today (I'll post it if I can find it)where he said that Jordan had ways of getting easy points with post ups, cuts and jumpers-----where James doesn't have that. He was saying that LeBron was more like PIPPEN than Jordan (maybe THAT'S why Scottie loves him so much?)...

  31. sean Says:

    HERE IT IS, Jason......

    This might be the one time that being compared to a Hall of Famer is a bit of a putdown.

    Such is the status of LeBron James, who NBA analyst Steve Kerr says is much more like Scottie Pippen than Michael Jordan. The comparison arises because Pippen made headlines recently when he said LeBron perhaps was better than Jordan, the Chicago Bulls teammate with whom he won six NBA championships.

    Not so says Kerr, who also was on some of those Bulls teams. He contends LeBron has Pippen's broad set of skills, but lacks Jordan's ability to take over a game. Said Kerr to ESPN Radio:

    "He's so similar to Scottie in that defensively he was just a monster, could guard anybody, really more of a point forward than scoring guard. Scottie always loved to distribute the ball. That's really where LeBron's preference is.

    "Phil Jackson used to call Scottie a 'sometimes shooter.' Sometimes they would go in, sometimes they wouldn't. That's how it is with LeBron. He's a great talent and a great player but you can see his flaws as a basketball player. He doesn't have an offensive game that he can rely on. No low-post game, no mid-range jump shot. So when the game really gets tough he has a hard time finding easy baskets and getting himself going. That's what Michael did in his sleep so that's why the comparison is wrong."

  32. sean Says:

    Kerr then went on to say that if HE was advising James, he'd tell him to spend the entire summer practicing his post game with his back to the basket and working on his jump shot.

  33. sean Says:

    I understand all of the wonderful, positive things that can legitimately said about LeBron James' playoff history from a productivity standpoint.... but I also know that's NOT what people are getting at (in the greater NY Metro area) on the sports talk shows.

    They're pointing to what they saw in the Finals from LeBron---------the overriding observation being that he 'ran from the ball' in the 4th Quarter, played 'hot potato' and got rid of it-----not to make plays, but to get rid of it, not wanting to shoot it or try to score it. "Shrink from the moment" was mentioned. There are just certain players who NEVER did that. They never looked disengaged, lost. That seems to be the most popular criticism that I'm hearing.

  34. Persef Says:

    @28

    """Seems you're confused, why on earth would Dallas's top three players be tired? Stop comparing Jason Kidd to LeBron that's just funny. Jason Terry comes off the bench."""

    sorry, but are you mentally challeged?

    - why could Kidd be tired after logging 37 minutes per game in the finals?
    hum, lets see - maybe because he is 38 years old?! yeah right, thats 12 years older (!) than Lebron. what Kidd logged in minutes is a lifetime feat. he was the oldest player in the history of the game starting in the finals AND logged major minutes (5th most of all players this postseason)
    why else could Kidd be tired? maybe its due to him logging the 8th most minutes OF ALL TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME: 46689 minutes and still counting
    - why could Dirk be tired?
    he's tired because he is the only constant offensive force on his team. he posted the biggest discrepancy between first and second best scorer in the NBA in the regular and the post season, in fact, only the 2008 Lakers had a historically higher discrepancy between 1st and 2nd scorer since the NBA was formed. maybe thats the reason he was tired. but I dunno... could also be due to age because he's 33 years old now
    - why could Jason be tired?
    it's true that he is comming off the bench, yet he logged the 2nd most minutes for Dalas in the regular season - there goes your bench argument. ah well, he's also nearly 34 years old.

    really - I can't believe you are THAT uninformed and dismissing Jason "bcause he comes from the bench". yet, everybody in the NBA knows hat Terry is logging starter minutes - do you follow this sport at all?
    anyway - if a 26 year old Lebron can't be fresh to battle against a 38 years old Kidd - you know he isn't the player you think he is. sorry, but this old farts outplayed Lebron on offense and defense.
    the minutes aren't a factor at all - just watch how pitiful Lebron played against Dallas in the regular season where he had the freshest legs possible and only hit 26% FG.

    your argument failed again

    --------------

    ""Persef Dallas doesn't even need Dirk to play 35 MPG to be an elite team. Dirk is not a great defensive player either his career D-rating in the post-season is higher than in the regular season.""

    no comment you wanna see Dirks defensive impact?

    heres the (defensive) allowed PPP (points per play) analysis, which was made by guys who are actually counting every posession and the numbers are derived by video studies so that all plays are reviewed and the credit to the players is given out on video analysis.

    here is the result:
    Dirk Nowitzki - 0.82 (70)
    Kevin Garnett - 0.82 (70)
    Chris Bosh - 0.83 (83)
    Zach Randolph - 0.85 (117)
    Lamarcus Aldridge - 0.86 (139)
    Pau Gasol - 0.88 (188)
    Blake Griffin - 0.88 (188)
    Carlos Boozer - 0.88 (188)
    Kevin Love - 0.89 (214)
    Amar’e Stoudemire - 0.96 (364)

    Dirks 1-on-1 defense is the best in the league (tied with KG)
    the worst defenders at the 4 are Love and Stoudamire

    on http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ you can find ridge regressed defensive APM numbers (thanks to mysticbb)

    here are the results:
    Kevin Garnett +3.9 (1)
    Dirk Nowitzki +2.6 (9)
    Chris Bosh +2.2 (16)
    Lamarcus Aldridge +2.0 (30)
    Pau Gasol +1.6 (46)
    Zach Randolph +0.5 (132)
    Blake Griffin +0.1 (206)
    Kevin Love -0.5 (341)
    Carlos Boozer -0.7 (357)
    Amar’e Stoudemire -2.4 (447)

    Dirks impact can easily be seen when he was injured - the Mavs went to a 2-7 run and were on pace to reach Clevelandish standins.
    Dirk +/- are inredible high, as soon as he goes to the bench, the Mavs defense fold.

    your argument failed again - please understand the game.

    ----------------

    """The opposite is true for James he expends much more energy defensively and handles every position for Miami, there's nobody like that on Dallas. Tyson Chandler doesn't crack 30 MPG. The facts are what they are, Dallas is a very deep team with a finesse style and a much larger rotation of players."""

    this very deep team just missed 3 starters in the finals due to injuries (Caron, Roddy and Haywood). in fact they had a shorter rotation than Miami had... I think I already pointed that out with links to game 5 - seems you overlooked that, again.

    so we have a team of 38 years old players using less benchplayers than a team featuring 3 all stars who are all in their twenties?

    sorry - but you failed AGAIN.

  35. sudoku Says:

    Kobe is/has been clearly better than disco dancing Lebron,IMHO.
    Lebroom has run out of excuses,he has played with the most gifted team in his prime.I like this site and I know the founders are really smitten with him but let's be honest.Prancing and shouting around ''not 5-not 6-not 7 championships are enough'',gimme a break.And foremost,he does have a sucky shot release.

  36. huevonkiller Says:

    #30 Sean, LeBron doesn't massage the ball in Miami and has a better Jumper than Kobe already.

    Henry Abbot suggested improving LeBron's 3-pointer, I think that's actually a much better suggestion. Kerr is right that Pippen is a better defender than Jordan though. LeBron is also a superior defender. Fundamentally I'm not sure LeBron is that much off than Bryant this is a non-issue.

    Steve Kerr is not a great basketball mind. I think his time with the Suns was pretty mediocre.

    #33

    They should have watched the previous round of the playoffs. It is not wise to have a short-sighted perspective when analyzing a player.

  37. Heretic Says:

    Here is a comparison of Bryant, Jordan and LeBron, all up to age 26:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=bryanko01&y1=2005&p2=jordami01&y2=1990&p3=jamesle01&y3=2011

    It is undisputable that LeBron outperforms Kobe by far, but still does not match Jordan (although it is true that he is a better defender).

  38. huevonkiller Says:

    #34

    It comes off as a double-standard. As a Mavs Fan I wouldn't be so quick to dwell on Miami's failures.

    ~In the five year ridge rankings Dirk has a 1.4 rating, the same as Jeff Foster. Whoops.

    Persef I'm aware of most statistical figures already, before you state them. Dirk is nowhere near KG defensively and most defensive metrics for his career rate him average to below average. Tyson Chandler handles the elite assignments on that team as well.

    Your site is flawed anyway, Luol Deng isn't more valuable than Kobe, and there are plenty of other examples. But even accepting your source you've failed to prove much of anything.

    Stop raging with anger. The truth is Dirk did not even play great in the Finals and Dallas still won. He shot 41% from the field and had a terrible game 4 and game 6 for instance. Dallas is a depth-driven team and Dirk had one of his least stellar seasons and won a title anyway.

    ~~Yes Finesse players and Jumpshooters are not supposed to get tired. They hold up better over time there is this guy called Steve Nash. He's much more effective than Shaq at the same age, yet Shaq creams him in their primes. Same analogy here.

  39. huevonkiller Says:

    #37 Heretic I've done some research.

    http://bkref.com/tiny/2JZfG

    James is still ahead in WS/48, WS, and minutes played. Age 24 was when Michael finally got past the first round of the playoffs. You were penalizing young James for having more post-season success.

    I think the depth of perimeter talent is better in this era too, but that's a different argument.

  40. Heretic Says:

    #38

    OK, I guess it is fair to start comparing them from age 24, given that Jordan had almost no playoff games before. We will see if LeBron comes close to Jordan's 1991-1993.

  41. Heretic Says:

    Btw, here's a thing that puzzles me. I did some research on ages 27-29 and I noticed that Shaq has a better DRtg than Jordan (100 vs. 103) and played slightly more minutes, yet has for some reason less DWS (3.7 vs. 4.3 for Jordan). So what gives?

    http://tinyurl.com/69hnwsb

  42. huevonkiller Says:

    #41 That is very interesting.

    It is a couple of things. On very elite teams every player will have a good defensive rating, so DWS tries to reward you based on the cast around you.

    Shaq probably has a bigger defensive impact though, going by Chicago's improved defense in 1994.

  43. Persef Says:

    @38

    thanks Huevo you finally admitted defeat :D

    it's always nice when I bring straight facts you you bring nothing at all to prove your argument.

    at least we all know now, that fatigue is no excuse for Lebrons performance and that Dirk is a good defender.

    gg

  44. huevonkiller Says:

    I want to make an analogy since you don't understand Persef.

    I'm going to say this as an Indianapolis Colts fan.... You (The Mavs) are the Colts of the NBA. Dirk has messed up worse than any Superstar and he won in an off-peak season, and off Finals series like Peyton Manning in Superbowl 41. No need to be arrogant.

    You tried to prove finesse players exert the same amount of energy, but they don't. And I addressed this. Persef I clearly addressed every single position you took, over the last five years Dirk is nowhere near KG and that's from your own source. Not my source.

    Additionally Luol Deng is not better than Kobe Bryant, your source is awkward and flawed.

  45. Persef Says:

    7.7 to 7.6 is nowhere near ?
    and those numbers came up with old data

    ha - nice try though ;)

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

    here the updated ranking from 2005-2011 RAPM
    Dirk is of course the best player in that course in the NBA
    I wonder what name you'd give to the 0.5 difference between Dirk and KG. I mean, you said 0.1 is "nowhere near" ... what is 0.5 then ?

    PS: I'm still waiting for you to adress the fatigue thing when we are talking about a 38 years old logging 38 minutes compared to a 26 yo logging 43 minutes.

  46. huevonkiller Says:

    Persef that's quite incorrect. You've made a series of claims.

    1."Dirks 1-on-1 defense is the best in the league (tied with KG)"

    ~Well... No not even close. They aren't actually, 1.4 isn't close to 5.2 That's a pretty ridiculous comment actually. You even provided me with the evidence to handle this claim in your link.

    2. "here the updated ranking from 2005-2011 RAPM. Dirk is of course the best player in that course in the NBA."

    ~ Actually even this stat proves he's not, it is a per-minute stat. And since LeBron James plays 43.6 minutes a game you're out of options. Also tell me about #9 L-u-o-l D-e-n-g, SF for the Chicago Bulls please, and how he's better than Kobe Bryant. Since you seem to be dodging that matter because you know how bad this stat is.

    Steve Nash and Manu Ginobili are not better than Kobe either. Gerald Wallace over Dwyane Wade? I know you don't really want to get into this debate because these rankings look awful. Every stat on basketball-reference show the importance of James's overall impact over these players. Same thing with Kobe/Wade.

    3."PS: I'm still waiting for you to adress "

    ~ You don't even know Jason Kidd's stats.

    Jason Kidd plays 35 .4 minutes a game and averaged 9 points. That's not a very credible comparison.

    Chris Bosh is the best player on the Heat according to your link btw. Your link doesn't really serve you well.

  47. CB Says:

    lol, comming to this thread several days later and Huevo killer is still licking Lebrons balls ^^

    dude, stop the fatigue argument. Lebron lost to a 38 years old fart and was shut down by him. 5 minutes more or lass my ass. this guy is in his prime and he cant even finish against a guy who could be your grandpa.

    about the KG-vs-Dirk thin.
    lets face it, Kevin isn't the defender he was back then and Dirk is holding his own on a similar level, athough he can be hidden behind the opponents worst frontcourt player with Chandler on the court (but keepin mind that Tyson only played 25-something in the regular season, the rest of the way Dirk had to defend the Duncans, Griffins, Boshs, Gasols,Odoms, Aldridgs etc of the world)

    btw. I'm laughing hard right now @ Hueveo
    you really don't know mutch about on/offcourt +/- stats don't you ?-)
    Nowitzki is a hero in that stat for years now. no wonder he is ahead of Garnett.

    stop complaining, you've got beaten by the other guys facts

  48. Persef Says:

    your ignorance doesn't serve you well either

    now we reached the point where reading comprehension is important
    It seems you mixed up links of the current season with links from a 5 year datapack. Can't blame you, Lebron fans in generally lack the mentality to grasp those logic conclusions.

    1st: the stats I've posted about Dirks defense are from THIS season and not the 2nd link you used in which the defensive impact from KG and Dirk form the 2005.
    KG from the mid 2000s was one of the best, if not the best PF defender in the history of the game - you must be pretty stupid to think anyone could claim otherwise.

    your premiss on the whole is flawed - you said Dirk is not a good defensive player, yet he posted similar or better defensive impact numbers than Garnett this season.
    if Dirk is not a good defensive player - what is Garnett then?
    in the PPP link I posted you can clearly see that Dirk+Garnett are producing on the same defensive level. helding their opponents at the same PPP - both in elite category (side note for you: THIS SEASON). if we consider on/of court of the current season, Dirk is far ahead of KG:
    http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?&year=2010-2011
    (outscored off the court by)
    Dirk off the court: -5.8
    KG off the court: -3.3

    thats the defensive impact Dirk has.

    you are proven wrong - again

    -----------------------------

    2nd: +/- on court stats are not minute based, at least not how you interpreted them.
    It's sad somehow, we are on a statgeek site with 99% of the users being educated in terms of knowledge about math/statistics - and now you appear and accuse others of having no clue
    you can learn those things while reading that paper: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/joeSillSloanSportsPaperWithLogo.pdf

    those rankings are not per 100 minutes, in fact they are about per 100 possesions.
    minutes doesn't play any significant role in those models, except determinating the cut off

    nice try though, you failed again.

    about Luol Deng being ahead of Kobe:
    those stats are seperated between offensive and defensive impact and are merged to have a better overview.
    what is wrong with you? in KGs case you ignored the overall value (in which Dirk is higher than KG in that 5 year span), but you nitpicked only the defensive impact to value KG higher. but as soon as we talk about other players you just ignore the seperation?
    let me ask you this:
    isn't it true that Kobe is the superior player to Luol?
    - Kobe is way ahead of Deng in terms of offense
    isn't it true that Deng is the superior defender to Kobe?
    - Deng is ahead of Kobe

    this is true for the last 5 years overall. Kobe had moments where he was the better defender, but the last 2 years alone Deng was the more skilled one in that case.

    -------------------

    3rd:
    Kidd regular season mpg: 33mpg
    Lebron regular season mpg: 38mpg

    playoff totals Kidd: 744 minutes
    playoff totals Lebron: 922 minutes

    sorry - but if a 12 year younger Lebron can'T handle 5 more minutes per game than a 38 year old Kidd, then he isn't athe athlete you think he is. Lebron got shut down by Kidd (and Marion) and coudln't do a thing.
    he was also shut down by those guys in the early regular season where Lebron had the freshest legs on the planet - and still sucked.

    there is a reason why guys like Monta can play 48 minutes straight, because they are superior athletes. there is also the reason why former MVPs, best PF of the history of the game and 4 times championship winners like Duncan only play 28 minutes. because they are old.... Duncan on the other hand is only 34 years old. Kidd on the other hand is 38/39 years old AND he shut down the arguable best player in the game on the defensive end while leading the best offense in the postseason (those who win). It's funny that you mentioned Lebrons higher scoring output to put him in front of Kidd in terms of overall action and fatigue. but Kidd had more assist and more steals. he also was the defender for Kobe in round 2 and Durant in round 3. thats exhausting

    yet, Lebron still was tired because the 38 years old outplayed him

  49. Heretic Says:

    #42

    Sadly, I do not think this is the case. If you look at the way DWS are calculated, league points per possession are very important. And LPPP = average league DRtg/100 (if I didn't screw up anything).

    So, for example, Shaq in 2000 and Jordan in 1992 have the same playoff DRtg (104). Shaq played more minutes (1000 vs. 920). Yet Jordan has more DWS (I think 1.7 vs. 1.1).

    The reason? LPPP in 1992 was 1,114, while in 2000 it was only 1,042. So Jordan benefits from the fact that his DRtg is much better than the average DRtg (104 compared to 111,4). Shaq's DRtg, in turn, is about the same as the league average (104).

    I love WS (much better than PER IMO) but I think that team DRtg should be considered also when attributing DWS. For example, Jordan's DRtg in 1992 playoffs was only slightly higher than his teams average (105,3 I think), while Shaq's Lakers were a poor defensive team in 2000 (107,5 DRtg). According to team impact Shaq was better.

  50. Heretic Says:

    #42

    Here, btw, is the comparison:

    http://tinyurl.com/69x39md

  51. huevonkiller Says:

    Adjusted plus minus definition from NBAstuffer:

    "What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
    It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

    CB you can get as upset as you want, I applied the APM stat the way it is defined, your bad. LeBron still wins. You were incorrect to criticize anything I stated.

    And I'm a Colts fan I know what a Mavericks-like franchise is like. I don't like the way the Colts are Old now with only one title, that was not the goal. The Mavs squandered their chances they should have been the Spurs.

    And neither franchise was validated to me so the arrogance is misplaced. LeBron has something more valuable that Dirk can only dream about and that's time.

    "dude, stop the fatigue argument. Lebron lost to a 38 years old fart and was shut down by him. 5 minutes more or lass my ass. this guy is in his prime and he cant even finish against a guy who could be your grandpa."

    I'm pretty sure Shawn Marion was on LeBron for most of the series. Maybe you should watch it sometime? Yeah your bad.

    I don't CARE if LeBron failed in this series, have you ever watched Dirk in 2007 or LeBron in 2009? There really is no equal when it comes to performing positively (LeBron), and underperforming (Dirk). I wanted LA to win the 2009 title too.

    Sure looked like Wade got fatigued playing fewer minutes and doing much less too.

    "lol, comming to this thread several days later and Huevo killer is still licking Lebrons balls ^^"

    Blah blah blah, I was a Kobe fan so deal with it. I think LeBron haters lack objective evidence when they get upset and this is exactly why.

    Huevon is very different from huevo I can tell you're also ignorant of the Spanish language.

    "about the KG-vs-Dirk thin.
    lets face it, Kevin isn't the defender he was back then and Dirk is holding his own on a similar level, athough he can be hidden behind the opponents worst frontcourt player with Chandler on the court (but keepin mind that Tyson only played 25-something in the regular season, the rest of the way Dirk had to defend the Duncans, Griffins, Boshs, Gasols,Odoms, Aldridgs etc of the world)"

    I was talking about a FIVE year analysis, it has little to do with age. Again, your bad. Yes they hide Dirk on people that's why a five year analysis exposes him.

    "btw. I'm laughing hard right now @ Hueveo
    you really don't know mutch about on/offcourt +/- stats don't you ?-)
    Nowitzki is a hero in that stat for years now. no wonder he is ahead of Garnett.

    stop complaining, you've got beaten by the other guys facts"

    I got you good here, I'll post it again:
    "What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
    It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

    Finally, is Chris Bosh the best player on the Heat or not? APM is noisy too, get informed.

  52. huevonkiller Says:

    #49

    Yeah the same defensive rating in different seasons/eras, is not equal. They were right to adjust for league average that isn't the problem.

    The formula is wrong because in this SPECIFIC case, MJ's team got better defensively without him. Shaq is understated in comparison.

    DWS over-rewards steals and blocks, Shaq was the better defender.

  53. huevonkiller Says:

    #48

    Neil Paine proved APM is minute based, multiplied it by minutes, and calls it "APMVAL". End of discussion.... Go to the Christmas Eve 2010 blog post and get acquainted with the stat.

    Dude you messed up, the sloan sports paper is about APM team ratings for March/April</strong, and that's why it has a 1200 minute cutoff. Because there are only 12.5 games per month, multiplied by two you get 1200 minutes total. APM is always MINUTE based. I'm ahead of you, I know more about this stat and I've been here very long.

    "logic conclusion"?

    LeBron fans don't grasp logic conclusions, we grasp logical conclusions actually. And I was a Laker fan in 2009 so whatever.

    Here's the problem using APM:

    1. Yeah like I said, you have to prove Chris Bosh is the best player on the Miami Heat. You're not going to be able to do that there's this thing called NOISE in APM. It's why it has goofy rankings. The fact that you're even trying shows your total bias for Dirk. And lack of any SUPPORTING (go to LeBron's page on this website) evidence. No one thinks Chris Bosh is better, none of the important stats think he is either.

    2. Wow it looks like you confused yourself. The APM stats from THIS season say Dirk is inferior to KG defensively. Lol it is on your website source! Dirk hides on defense, the PPP adjusted for opponent won't support him.

    3. No I said over Dirk's career he is a failure defensively. Read #28 again since you have a reading comprehension problem. And the FIVE year analysis supports his incompetence defensively. The five year analysis is one of the metrics you should be using.

    4. "What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
    It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

    "Best Christmas day performances", a great post Neil made about APM multiplied by time. Not that it even matters since LeBron is the best player since Jordan.

    5. Hmmmmmm..... Didn't look like Dirk did too well in 2007 or 2003. Looks like he's wasn't too durable in important seasons, and he's a finesse player in his prime.

    This thread is not about fatigue, I don't even care WHY he didn't perform. He's proven you wrong already. I'm more interested in the future and he'll be fine once he gets Dirk rest.

    Playing style does matter LeBron is a bigger Wade that gets more free throws, and Kobe doesn't play well with 44 MPG either. Jason Kidd is a role player who defends Wade not LeBron either. Again you don't know history.

    6. The bread and butter at basketball-reference is Win Shares, offensive SPM for offense, and APM for Defense. All in favor in James. Heck APMVAL is in favor of james too. Not that it matters.

    His peak season is greater than any of Jordan's seasons, and he's 26 years old. He's never lost in the first round, especially not to bad teams like Dirk, and the rest of his career is brighter than any player since Jordan.

  54. Heretic Says:

    #52

    What I had in mind is that DWS rewards average and bad defenders on good defensive teams and punishes good defenders on scrub defensive teams.
    A perfect example would be Antawn Jamison in 2010, whose DRtg improved to 102 when he went from Washington to Cleveland during the season. Previously his DRtg was 109.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamisan01/gamelog/2010/

    So it would be good if team performance would also be taken into account, then it would be a perfect metric.

  55. huevonkiller Says:

    #54

    I'll concur with you there, but over a career one gets a good idea with defensive rating.