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Ten Thousand 2011 NCAA Tournaments

Posted by Neil Paine on March 14, 2011

Using Ken Pomeroy's ratings and the log5 formula, I set up a Monte Carlo Simulation and ran the 2011 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times. Here was the most likely bracket:

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Posted in Analysis, NCAA, Statgeekery | 12 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 11, 2011)

Posted by Neil Paine on March 11, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on March 10, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 12 Comments »

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Posted by Neil Paine on March 11, 2011

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Sports Reference is hiring a web developer this spring. Please see the link above for the job description and information on how to apply.

Posted in Announcements | Comments Off

NY Times: Defense Helps Lift the Bulls

Posted by Justin Kubatko on March 11, 2011

The defense never rests in Chicago:

Keeping Score: Defense Helps Lift the Bulls

Read it in today's print edition as well.

Posted in NY Times | Comments Off

Layups: Sloan Conference Summaries

Posted by Neil Paine on March 10, 2011

I would have written a full summary of my trip to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference last week, but A) I've been sick this week, and B) the guys at TrueHoop had it covered so well that my efforts would be totally extraneous:

It was such a blast to meet those guys, btw. You haven't lived until you've been out partying with stat geeks until 2:30 AM.

I'd be remiss if I didn't also link to Kevin Pelton's recap at Basketball Prospectus:

Recapping Sloan: Two Key Issues

And don't forget Ben Morris' summary at Skeptical Sports Analysis. Or Deadspin's "Dispatches From Dorkapalooza".

Finally, you can read all of the tweets I sent out as I covered the panels live via the Basketball-Reference Twitter stream:

Basketball Reference (bball_ref) on Twitter

Let me know if I'm forgetting anybody's recap/summary, and I'll add them to the list.

Posted in Layups, Statgeekery | 1 Comment »

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Posted by Neil Paine on March 9, 2011

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Sports Reference is hiring a web developer this spring. Please see the link above for the job description and information on how to apply.

Posted in Announcements | Comments Off

Time to Face Facts — Miami is Unlikely to Be a True .500 Team in Close Games

Posted by Neil Paine on March 8, 2011

The close-game struggles of this year's Miami Heat are nothing if not well-documented. A 5-13 record in games decided by 5 or fewer points has become the team's defining stat, far surpassing LeBron James' gaudy all-around numbers or the scoring brilliance of Dwyane Wade. As far as the mainstream media is concerned, it is now assumed this team will choke until they prove otherwise.

As statheads, we typically detest this sort of cliched, pseudo-psychological nonsense. Part of the sabermetric orthodoxy is to deny the existence of "clutch skills", or at least to minimize them relative to overall factors that impact every minute of the game. But with the Heat so dominant in blowouts and so vulnerable in close games, perhaps there is something to the old sportswriter aphorisms about certain teams being unable to close the deal when the margin gets tight.

As mentioned earlier, Miami is 5-13 (.278) in games decided by 5 points or fewer, while they sport a sterling 38-7 (.844) mark in games decided by 6 or more points. The Heat now have the biggest differential in NBA history between wpct in games decided by 6+ pts and games decided by 5 or fewer:

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Posted in Analysis, Rants & Ramblings, Statgeekery | 106 Comments »

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Posted by Neil Paine on March 7, 2011

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Sports Reference is hiring a web developer this spring. Please see the link above for the job description and information on how to apply.

Posted in Announcements | Comments Off

NY Times: Billups’s Quiet Effectiveness

Posted by Justin Kubatko on March 7, 2011

I'm posting this a few days late because I was in Boston for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past weekend:

Keeping Score: Billups’s Quiet Effectiveness

This appeared in last Friday's print edition as well.

Posted in NY Times | 6 Comments »

The Don Nelson All-Star Team

Posted by Neil Paine on March 5, 2011

Hanging out with Hoopism's Bailey brothers (Jason & Matt) and Harold Shanafield of Haystack Scouting on Friday night, we had a great conversation about the "ultimate teams" of a given coach. The idea is this: if you had a certain coach, and you had to play a pickup game in his signature style with players from NBA history, who do you pick to play?

Specifically, we were joking around and picking Don Nelson all-stars, thinking of freakish lineups with a SF at the 1, a PG at the 2, a SG at the 3, a SF at the 4, and a PF at the 5. Jason had a few too many beers and picked Travis Outlaw as his PG, I called on Antoine Walker's services at point forward, Matt built a team around Anthony Mason, and I also think Wang Zhizhi was somehow involved. This was all for fun, but what if we actually picked the players who put up the most Win Shares while playing for Nelson?

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Posted in Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Rants & Ramblings, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 26 Comments »

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