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BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 25, 2011)

Posted by Neil Paine on February 25, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 24, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off

NY Times: Big Trades Don’t Come With Guarantees

Posted by Justin Kubatko on February 25, 2011

It is rare for a player who just played in the All-Star Game to be dealt to another team before the end of the season, but this week it happened twice. For this week's column I took a look at some of the more recent deals involving these players:

Keeping Score: Big Trades Don’t Come With Guarantees

This column appears in today's print edition as well.

Posted in NY Times | 8 Comments »

How Would You Fill the “NBA Hall of Relevance”?

Posted by Neil Paine on February 24, 2011

I've been thinking about this concept for a while, but I want to throw it out there for the readers and see what they think...

Everyone knows we already have a Basketball Hall of Fame. But from an NBA perspective, a lot of people think it's broken -- as the argument goes, too many non-NBA people get inducted while great NBA players are left out in the cold. So there's a growing push to create an NBA-only Hall of Fame. How do you stock such a Hall, though? It seems like the other major sports have a pretty clear focus in their induction processes: baseball's hall is largely about longevity and statistical milestones, while football's hall is heavily focused on guys who won championships and/or changed the game.

So what should the NBA's angle be? I want to propose that this hypothetical Hall be about "relevance". As in, who were the relevant players in a given season or span of seasons? Who were the essential names? When you tell the Story Of The NBA, which players would it be inexcusable not to mention? If the Hall of Fame is about celebrating the history of the league, then including the guys that fundamentally shaped the narrative is a pretty good mandate. And if we can tell the NBA's story without mentioning a certain player, it's hard to argue that he belongs in the Hall.

The good news is that you can generate the majority of this list by setting up a basic checklist of requirements. But I want to know what you think those requirements are.

Off the top of my head, here's a basic list of requirements that capture the "relevant" players each season:

  • Top 3 in each season's MVP voting
  • Every Sporting News MVP
  • Every season's 1st-team All-NBAers
  • Every Finals MVP
  • Top 3 players on each NBA champion
  • Best player on Finals runner-up
  • Best player on team with NBA's best record
  • PER leader for seasons 2000-present
  • Win Shares leader for seasons 2004-present

This is the list of players generated by those criteria:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Hall of Fame, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Rants & Ramblings, Win Shares | 53 Comments »

Percentage of Team Shot Attempts “Created” While On the Floor

Posted by Neil Paine on February 23, 2011

With noted shot-creator Carmelo Anthony on the move, I was wondering which players have a hand in "creating" the highest percentage of their team's shot attempts when on the floor.

If we're just looking at a player's own shooting attempts, this is pretty easy. You can look at the percentage of team FGA a player takes when on the court (all leaders minimum 1,366 minutes):

Player Pos Tm G Min FGA FTA %FGA
Kobe Bryant SG LAL 58 1959 1121 415 33.6%
Carmelo Anthony SF DEN 50 1774 967 417 32.7%
Derrick Rose PG CHI 53 2012 1068 328 31.8%
Kevin Durant SF OKC 51 2011 1037 457 31.3%
LeBron James SF MIA 55 2100 1034 479 30.7%
Dwyane Wade SG MIA 53 1964 957 467 30.4%
Amare Stoudemire C/PF NYK 53 1949 1028 422 30.3%
Andrea Bargnani PF/C TOR 51 1828 935 254 29.7%
Michael Beasley SF/PF MIN 48 1566 828 196 29.7%
Russell Westbrook PG OKC 55 1953 932 446 29.0%
Monta Ellis SG GSW 56 2298 1156 336 28.6%
Joe Johnson SG/SF ATL 47 1688 788 182 28.5%
Dirk Nowitzki PF DAL 47 1611 737 274 28.1%
Antawn Jamison PF/SF CLE 53 1737 822 214 28.0%
Kevin Martin SG HOU 56 1745 848 476 27.8%
Eric Gordon SG LAC 41 1550 712 296 27.6%
Brook Lopez C NJN 57 1959 870 351 27.4%
Stephen Jackson SG/SF CHA 55 2025 884 260 27.3%
Luis Scola PF HOU 58 1939 920 251 27.2%
Blake Griffin PF LAC 57 2156 971 492 27.1%

You could also take it a step further and factor in free throws as well, calculating the percentage of each team's True Shooting Attempts (FGA + .44 * FTA) each player takes while on the floor:

Player Pos Tm G Min FGA FTA TSA %TSA
Kobe Bryant SG LAL 58 1959 1121 415 1303.6 34.5%
Carmelo Anthony SF DEN 50 1774 967 417 1150.5 33.3%
Kevin Durant SF OKC 51 2011 1037 457 1238.1 32.1%
Derrick Rose PG CHI 53 2012 1068 328 1212.3 31.9%
LeBron James SF MIA 55 2100 1034 479 1244.8 31.9%
Dwyane Wade SG MIA 53 1964 957 467 1162.5 31.8%
Amare Stoudemire C/PF NYK 53 1949 1028 422 1213.7 31.7%
Kevin Martin SG HOU 56 1745 848 476 1057.4 30.6%
Russell Westbrook PG OKC 55 1953 932 446 1128.2 30.1%
Andrea Bargnani PF/C TOR 51 1828 935 254 1046.8 29.6%
Monta Ellis SG GSW 56 2298 1156 336 1303.8 29.1%
Michael Beasley PF MIN 48 1566 828 196 914.2 29.1%
Dirk Nowitzki PF DAL 47 1611 737 274 857.6 29.1%
Blake Griffin PF LAC 57 2156 971 492 1187.5 28.8%
Brook Lopez C NJN 57 1959 870 351 1024.4 28.5%
Eric Gordon SG LAC 41 1550 712 296 842.2 28.4%
Joe Johnson SG/SF ATL 47 1688 788 182 868.1 28.0%
Antawn Jamison PF/SF CLE 53 1737 822 214 916.2 27.5%
LaMarcus Aldridge PF/C POR 56 2206 989 332 1135.1 27.3%
DeMarcus Cousins C SAC 53 1443 662 248 771.1 27.2%

But I think you need to take assists into account as well.

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Posted in Analysis, Statgeekery | 30 Comments »

The Best Players Ever to be Traded Midseason

Posted by Neil Paine on February 22, 2011

Well, it's (quasi) official now: Carmelo Anthony is a member of the New York Knicks.

Finally, we can put aside the trade speculation and ask the really important questions about the deal. No, I'm not talking about how this shifts the balance of power in the East, or if 'Melo and Amare Stoudemire can coexist in the Big Apple... I'm talking about where Carmelo ranks among all-time players who were traded in the middle of the season.

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Posted in Data Dump, History, Statgeekery, Trivia, Win Shares | 37 Comments »

Quantifying the NBA’s Reggie Cleveland All-Stars

Posted by Neil Paine on February 21, 2011

Everyone who has spent time studying historical player stats knows this phenomenon: You've seen a player's name for years, but you only know him as a series of numbers on a page. He retired before you were born, and you haven't even seen so much as a trading card with his picture on it... yet, instinctively wanting to humanize him, you imagine what he was like. You know his height, weight, all of the vital stats, everything except his ethnicity. So you make an educated guess based on his name. You now have an idealized picture in your mind's eye of the player in his prime, a man to go alongside the numbers.

The only problem comes when you do see him for the first time -- and he looks quite a bit different from the imaginary version you created years ago.

This is the concept behind Bill Simmons' Reggie Cleveland All-Stars, a "list of sports figures whose names would seem to indicate that they are of a different race or ethnicity than they actually are". Its namesake? Cleveland, a 1970s-era pitcher whom Simmons just assumed was black until learning otherwise when he joined the Red Sox.

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Posted in Insane ideas | 29 Comments »

Who Are the Most Similar Players to This Year’s All-Stars?

Posted by Neil Paine on February 19, 2011

Reading yesterday about Dave Duerson's tragic passing made me think about the player similarity system he inspired at PFR, and that in turn caused me to remember a similar system I concocted for basketball players.

Using the methodology I outlined, who are the most comparable players to this year's All-Stars in terms of career quality and shape (through their current age)?

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Posted in All-Star Game, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Statgeekery, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 10 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 18, 2011)

Posted by Neil Paine on February 18, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 17, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 12 Comments »

NY Times: Sizing Up the All-Stars

Posted by Justin Kubatko on February 17, 2011

The title says it all:

Keeping Score: Sizing Up the All-Stars

Look for it in tomorrow's print edition as well.

Posted in NY Times | 3 Comments »

‘Black Holes’, Position-by-Position

Posted by Neil Paine on February 17, 2011

The chart on this post about non-passing guards was so popular, I decided to run it for players at all positions (minimum 30 MPG):

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Posted in Data Dump, Statgeekery | 25 Comments »

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