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NY Times: Bosh Is Not the Problem in Miami

Posted by Justin Kubatko on November 19, 2010

In this week's column I explain why Chris Bosh has been the recipient of some unfair criticism in Miami:

Keeping Score: Bosh Is Not the Problem in Miami

This should appear in the print version as well.

Posted in NY Times | 15 Comments »

Layups: Oden Out For Season, Again

Posted by Neil Paine on November 18, 2010

This is just extremely depressing news for Portland fans (and fans of gifted big men in general):

"Trail Blazers center Greg Oden, the former No. 1 draft pick whose short career has been marred by injuries, will have microfracture surgery on his left knee and will not play this season.

Oden hasn't played since last December because he needed surgery to repair a fractured left patella. The Blazers say this operation, announced Wednesday night and scheduled for Friday in Vail, Colo., will repair damaged cartilage and is unrelated to the patella injury.

Oden, the first name announced in the 2007 NBA draft, missed his rookie season because of microfracture surgery on his right knee. The procedure stimulates cartilage growth.

Blazers trainer Jay Jensen said the latest problem with Oden's left knee became apparent about two weeks ago when he experienced some pain and fluid in the joint. Soon thereafter, an MRI revealed the damage.

'We sat there and it was like we'd been kicked in the stomach,' Jensen said, choking up. "It felt like hearing someone close to us had died.'"

Criticize the Blazers all you want for picking him over Kevin Durant in that '07 Draft, but the fact remains that Oden is a talent. When he managed to find the floor in between the injuries and foul trouble, he has actually been a pretty productive NBA player -- in fact, Oden's career rate of Win Shares per 48 minutes (0.180) is actually higher than Durant's (0.140).

Even so, the Curse of Sam Bowie (or is it Bill Walton?) lives on in the City of Roses. Here are the fewest NBA games played by a #1 overall pick in the first four seasons after they were drafted (omitting David Robinson, who had to serve in the Navy before debuting):

Rk Player Games
1 Mark Workman 79
2 Greg Oden 82
3 Frank Selvy 126
4 Si Green 129
5 Art Heyman 147
6 Bill McGill 158
7 Chuck Share 198
8 Bill Walton 209
9 Dick Ricketts 212
10 Chris Webber 217
11 Pervis Ellison 225
12 Mychal Thompson 231
13 Bob Boozer 237
14 David Thompson 238
15 Doug Collins 241
16 Austin Carr 247
17 Danny Manning 252
18 Kwame Brown 253
19 Elgin Baylor 261
20 Andrew Bogut 262

Posted in History, Layups | 11 Comments »

Layups: Knicks Do Everything But Win vs. Denver

Posted by Neil Paine on November 17, 2010

From's Stats and Information crew, an interesting note about last night's Knicks-Nuggets game:

"The New York Knicks did everything in their statistical power to beat the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night.

They made more field goals. They made more 3-pointers. They had more rebounds. They had more assists. They had fewer turnovers. And they had more blocked shots.

The Elias Sports Bureau told us that the last 266 times a team outperformed its opponent in all of those statistical categories, that team won the game.

Except the Knicks didn't win. They lost again, 120-118, their sixth straight defeat, this one starting a tough West Coast road trip. "

Of course, raw stats can deceive. Looking at our boxscore, we see that while New York did control the turnover battle and the boards, they were also beaten somewhat handily in eFG% and FT/FGA. That's bad, because eFG% in particular is far and away the most important of the Four Factors, the key statistical indicators of team success.

Four Factors
NYK 105.9 .485 8.9 30.6 .235 111.5
DEN 105.9 .517 10.9 21.7 .360 113.3

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Layups | 4 Comments »

Daily Updates on SR’s College Basketball Site

Posted by Justin Kubatko on November 17, 2010

Starting today, SR's college basketball site will be updated on a daily basis with 2010-11 statistics and results. Player game logs and splits are not ready yet, but they should be up by December 1 at the latest. Keep in mind that there are almost 350 Division I schools, so early on there may be a few hiccups. Please help us out by letting us know if anything looks amiss, either by posting a comment on the CBB blog or by filling out the CBB feedback form.

Posted in Announcements, NCAA | Comments Off on Daily Updates on SR’s College Basketball Site

“Guts and Stomps”, NBA Style

Posted by Neil Paine on November 16, 2010

The Miami Heat have been under fire recently for dominating weak foes and losing close games against good teams. The conventional wisdom is that this reveals a major gap in Miami's armor -- they just can't close the deal against stronger opponents.

Is this really true, though? And does it even matter?

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Playoffs, Statgeekery | 29 Comments »

Support, Sponsor a Page

Posted by Neil Paine on November 15, 2010

Sponsoring a page is fun, fast, and easy way to support what we're doing here at Basketball-Reference. With a sponsorship, you can:

  • Show your support for your favorite player or team.
  • Drum up traffic for your own site & draw in fans with a common interest.
  • Get some well-deserved recognition for your support of BBR.
  • Make your voice heard by the tens of thousands of people who visit Basketball-Reference every day.

Here's all you have to do to get involved:

  1. Create a membership account.
  2. Find the page(s) you'd like to support, and click "sponsor" (available pages).
  3. If the page you want is already sponsored, click "Alert Me!" to be informed when the current sponsorship expires.
  4. Follow the instructions to create your message and make your payment.
  5. Your message and links will be visible on the page after we approve them (usually in less than 24 hours).

And who knows, if you're clever enough, your message might end up on lists like these.

Posted in Announcements, Site Features | Comments Off on Support, Sponsor a Page

Win Probability of Utah Jazz Comebacks

Posted by Neil Paine on November 15, 2010

After five straight improbable comeback victories, I thought now would be a good time to post some Win Probability graphs from the Utah Jazz's recent winning streak. For those curious, the method for WP comes from an old Ed Küpfer post at APBRmetrics, and the play-by-play records come from (or, in the case of Jazz-Heat and Jazz-Bobcats). All WP is from the perspective of Utah, and the numbers at the bottom of the WP graphs represent the minutes remaining in the game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Boxscore Breakdown, Statgeekery | 4 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (November 12, 2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on November 12, 2010

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on November 11, 2010:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 5 Comments »

NY Times: Viewing the N.B.A. Through a Statistical Lens

Posted by Justin Kubatko on November 12, 2010

This season we will be providing weekly NBA content to The New York Times. Here is a link to our first column:

Keeping Score: Viewing the N.B.A. Through a Statistical Lens

This should appear in the print version as well.

Posted in NY Times | 11 Comments »

Layups: The Defensive Impact of Thibodeau-to-Chicago

Posted by Neil Paine on November 11, 2010

When Tom Thibodeau left his job as Doc Rivers' defensive guru in Boston, many speculated that Chicago would become dominant defensively and the Celtics would lose some of their defensive luster.

We're few weeks into the season, though, and as CelticsBlog's Jack Jemsek notes, Boston's D isn't really any worse for ware while the Bulls haven't improved very much at that end. What gives, Thibs?

Posted in Layups | 4 Comments »