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Layups: Behind the Scenes with Ty Lawson

Posted by Neil Paine on October 23, 2009

I'm not a huge fan of the reality genre, but I make exceptions for shows based on current athletes, which is why this new Ty Lawson series could be interesting:

The general consensus from us stat folks is that Lawson -- at #18 overall -- could go down as the steal of the draft (thanks, Dean Oliver!), so I'm pretty interested in how well he makes that transition from college stardom to the NBA, since the metrics say he should probably have been taken ahead of Flynn & Holiday.

Posted in Layups, YouTube Finds | 8 Comments »

Poll: Who Will Win the Western Conference, and/or the NBA Finals?

Posted by Neil Paine on October 23, 2009

Vote or die! OK, maybe not "die"... Um, "Vote or be ashamed that you didn't participate in the democratic process"?

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Posted in Polls | 9 Comments »

2009-10 Win Share Rates, Updated

Posted by Neil Paine on October 22, 2009

Following up on the work we did here about a month ago, here are the final versions of our projected Win Shares per minute, broken down into offensive and defensive WS/mp. The biggest change here is that I used the new Win Shares formula for past seasons, the new Simple Projection System to create the rates, and hopefully I also included every player who could possibly play in the NBA this season (708 in all!). So enjoy, and stay tuned for the big preview rollout on Monday and Tuesday, when we'll combine these rates with a playing-time projection and our Monte Carlo simulator to give you our official predictions for the season.

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Posted in Season Preview, Win Shares | 10 Comments »

Poll: Who Will Win the Eastern Conference?

Posted by Neil Paine on October 22, 2009

Yes, we have polls now.

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Posted in Polls | 11 Comments »

Layups: NBA Video Rule Book

Posted by Neil Paine on October 21, 2009

Basketball Geek Ryan Parker tweeted this link, and I think it's pretty cool: the NBA's Video Rule Book. In fact, now that the regular refs are going to be back on the job (thank goodness, BTW), you can watch these clips and know exactly how to once again criticize them, complain about how bad they are, and wish the league had different officials. It'll be just like old times again!

(Sorry about the dearth of real posts this week, but I'm hard at work on our 2-part NBA preview for next Mon. and Tues...)

Posted in Layups | Comments Off

SPS News and Notes

Posted by Justin Kubatko on October 21, 2009

Yesterday I made some changes to the Simple Projection System (SPS). The basic structure remains the same (it is supposed to be simple, after all) with the following modifications:

  • The weights for the previous three seasons have changed from 5-4-3 to 6-3-1.
  • The regression to the mean component now uses 1000 minutes of league average performance rather than 5000 minutes.
  • The age adjustment is now (28 - age) * 0.004 for players younger than 28 and (28 - age) * 0.002 for players older than 28.

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Posted in Announcements, Projections | 1 Comment »

Layups: “Prodigies” Video

Posted by Neil Paine on October 20, 2009

In case you didn't already see this when Skeets linked it over at Ball Don't Lie, here's a sweet vid by Hoops4Life about KG, Kobe, LeBron, and the preps-to-pros revolution:

Posted in Layups, YouTube Finds | Comments Off

Your Obligatory Preseason Data Dump

Posted by Neil Paine on October 19, 2009

Courtesy of Doug Steele's terrific preseason stats page, here's a big ol' data dump of advanced numbers so far for the games that don't count:

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Posted in Data Dump | 2 Comments »

Layups: Name the #1 Seeds

Posted by Neil Paine on October 18, 2009

Sporcle wants you to name every #1 seed since the NCAA Tournament started seeding teams in 1979. Are you up to the challenge?

Posted in Layups, NCAA | Comments Off

Win Shares Tweak

Posted by Justin Kubatko on October 16, 2009

Thanks to the alert eyes of one of our readers ("Deepak"), I have corrected a minor flaw in the Win Shares system. For those who don't care, feel free to move on. All others, please continue reading after the jump.

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Posted in Win Shares | 23 Comments »

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