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Layups: 2011 Internet Basketball Awards, Results edition

Posted by Neil Paine on April 27, 2011

The results are in for the 2011 Internet Basketball Awards - you can read Kevin Pelton's summary of the voting here.

Posted in Announcements, Awards, Layups | 3 Comments »

Layups: ‘Just For Kids’ Graying Gel (Video)

Posted by Neil Paine on April 27, 2011

Sorry about the lack of posts recently; I've been busy working on the new Stathead Blog. Don't worry, though -- I will have playoff previews and other posts forthcoming, once we find out the matchups for Round 2. And in the meantime, here's a funny video parodying those incessant Clyde Frazier-Keith Hernandez (and now, inexplicably, Randy Johnson) Just For Men commercials. (Note: PG-13 for language.)

Posted in Just For Fun, Layups, YouTube Finds | Comments Off

Stathead Blog

Posted by Sean Forman on April 25, 2011

Sports Reference's New Blog: Stathead

I have to admit that I find it very hard to follow all of the great research that people people are producing every day on the web. It's hard enough just checking the two or three largest sites, but when you add in team blogs, other stathead blogs and everything else, it becomes impossible. This doesn't even include trying to locate recent research in hockey, baseball, football and soccer.

So we've decided to do something about it. Every weekday, the Stathead blog will summarize the best research-related studies, news, conferences, and resources for baseball, basketball, football, hockey and soccer.

The blog will primarily be edited by Neil Paine and will typically feature 20-30 links to analytic content around the internet. We've been working out the format over the last two weeks, and we think you'll soon appreciate our concise summaries for all of the articles we write about.

Feedback as always is welcome.

Posted in Analysis, Announcements, From the NBA Blogosphere, General, Insane ideas | 1 Comment »

Layups: The Week in NBA Linkage

Posted by Neil Paine on April 22, 2011

A roundup of this week's links:

April 22, 2011

  • Revisiting tempo-rature in Milwaukee - Brewhoop’s Alex Boeder looks at the relationship between pace factor and the Milwaukee Bucks’ chances of winning. Link
  • Thoughts on Pacers, Heat and Mavs - Wayne Winston gives the +/- and impact ratings from recent games. Link
  • Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks’ Statistical Oddity - As Carl Bialik notes at the WSJ Daily Fix, Jason Kidd might be the poster child for using True Shooting % over raw FG%. Link
  • The Rise of Roy - At BBall Prospectus, Kevin Pelton writes about Brandon Roy’s vintage performance in Game 3. Link
  • Heat get offensive on the glass for big lead - ESPN’s Stats & Info dug up the statistical nuggets on Miami’s big offensive rebounding performance. Link
  • Comparing Bulls/Heat after 3-0 Starts - Hoopdata’s Jeff Fogle looks at the similarities and differences of Chicago and Miami’s 3-0 playoff starts. Link
  • Oklahoma City Has Stars, and Depth - Writing for the NY Times, Rob Mahoney highlights OKC’s supporting cast, who were efficient despite Denver taking away the team’s bread-and-butter isos and pick & rolls. Link
  • Bonus Baseball Link: Mets Get Little Bang for Their Bucks - At the NY Times, I reviewed the Mets’ perpetually bad marginal payroll-to-marginal wins ratio. Link

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Layups | 4 Comments »

Layups: 10 Best Opening-Round Series in NBA Playoff History

Posted by Neil Paine on April 21, 2011

College Crunch has its picks for the 10 Best Opening-Round Series in NBA Playoff History.

Posted in Layups, Playoffs | 12 Comments »

Playoff RAPM Power Rankings

Posted by Neil Paine on April 21, 2011

What happens if you create power rankings using Jeremias Engelmann's 4-year Regularized Plus-Minus ratings (the most predictive version of APM) and each playoff team's distribution of minutes through two games?

Take a look:

Team MP Offense Defense Overall
MIA 479 11.0 6.2 17.0
LAL 482 6.9 6.9 13.9
BOS 479 4.1 9.0 13.2
POR 479 6.3 6.6 13.1
ORL 482 7.7 5.3 12.9
DAL 480 6.7 5.9 12.6
SAS 480 6.3 5.9 11.9
DEN 480 5.8 4.9 10.6
CHI 478 3.8 6.5 10.3
OKC 481 4.0 5.4 9.3
MEM 480 3.0 5.4 8.2
NYK 482 7.3 -1.0 6.4
PHI 479 2.1 3.5 5.5
NOH 480 2.7 2.7 5.4
ATL 481 2.1 3.3 5.3
IND 479 1.7 2.9 4.7

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Statgeekery | 19 Comments »

Danny Crawford and the Mavs

Posted by Neil Paine on April 19, 2011

ESPN had an interesting news story today about Danny Crawford's history with the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs:

NBA playoffs 2011: Referee Danny Crawford assigned to Game 2 of Dallas Mavericks-Portland Trail Blazers series - ESPN Dallas

The gist is this:

"The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban, who has been fined millions of dollars in the last 11 years for publicly complaining about officiating."

At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory  in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Playoffs, Rants & Ramblings, Statgeekery | 36 Comments »

Layups: NBA.com Statscube

Posted by Neil Paine on April 19, 2011

In case you haven't already seen it, NBA.com just launched a sweet stat tool called StatsCube:

StatsCube - Advanced basketball statistics for NBA players and teams on NBA.com

John Schuhmann had been using it in his columns for a while, but now the public can sift through the data for themselves.

Posted in Layups, Statgeekery | 3 Comments »

Layups: Charlie Rose’s NBA Interviews

Posted by Neil Paine on April 18, 2011

On April 29, 2011, Google Video is shutting down. While hockey fans will lament the loss of these full-length games (some of which are also available on Hulu), this doesn't mean a lot to the NBA fan -- after all, games like this can also be found on YouTube, and who really wants to see grainy footage of a 2005 Celtics-Sixers game?

However, Google Videos also housed a number of old Charlie Rose interviews with basketball players and writers (Rose, from North Carolina, is a big fan of the game). Here are some that you should watch while you still can:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Layups, YouTube Finds | 1 Comment »

Best Road Performances in Opening-Round Game 1s?

Posted by Neil Paine on April 18, 2011

It was a banner weekend for underdogs, as the away teams kicked off the 2011 Playoffs with 3 wins, including victories by the Western Conference #8 and #7 seeds. How do the road teams' performances in this set of opening-round game 1s compare to other years since the playoffs expanded in 1984?

Let's take a look (all numbers from the perspective of the average road team in Game 1 of the 1st round):

Year roadW roadL WPct Margin expected Mgn Diff
2011 3 5 0.375 -0.63 -7.37 6.75
2010 1 7 0.125 -7.88 -4.88 -2.99
2009 4 4 0.500 -5.88 -7.46 1.58
2008 2 6 0.250 -7.13 -6.25 -0.88
2007 3 5 0.375 -2.75 -7.71 4.96
2006 1 7 0.125 -10.38 -6.14 -4.24
2005 2 6 0.250 -8.25 -6.23 -2.02
2004 0 8 0.000 -14.75 -7.02 -7.73
2003 4 4 0.500 -1.13 -6.95 5.82
2002 1 7 0.125 -8.25 -5.92 -2.33
2001 3 5 0.375 -1.25 -5.03 3.78
2000 2 6 0.250 -3.63 -6.29 2.67
1999 2 6 0.250 -7.75 -6.41 -1.34
1998 2 6 0.250 -8.13 -6.67 -1.45
1997 1 7 0.125 -15.13 -7.42 -7.70
1996 3 5 0.375 -5.00 -7.94 2.94
1995 1 7 0.125 -17.63 -6.90 -10.73
1994 2 6 0.250 -8.88 -6.41 -2.46
1993 2 6 0.250 -10.75 -8.19 -2.56
1992 1 7 0.125 -12.50 -9.63 -2.87
1991 3 5 0.375 -1.75 -9.25 7.50
1990 0 8 0.000 -11.75 -8.46 -3.29
1989 2 6 0.250 -4.75 -9.61 4.86
1988 0 8 0.000 -10.00 -9.86 -0.14
1987 1 7 0.125 -12.00 -10.24 -1.76
1986 1 7 0.125 -16.25 -9.91 -6.34
1985 1 7 0.125 -11.38 -7.78 -3.60
1984 3 5 0.375 -2.00 -7.87 5.87

(Click column headers to sort by each category.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, History, Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Trivia | 3 Comments »

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