SITE NEWS:
We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.
Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.
Sorry about the lack of posts recently; I've been busy working on the new Stathead Blog. Don't worry, though -- I will have playoff previews and other posts forthcoming, once we find out the matchups for Round 2. And in the meantime, here's a funny video parodying those incessant Clyde Frazier-Keith Hernandez (and now, inexplicably, Randy Johnson) Just For Men commercials. (Note: PG-13 for language.)
I have to admit that I find it very hard to follow all of the great research that people people are producing every day on the web. It's hard enough just checking the two or three largest sites, but when you add in team blogs, other stathead blogs and everything else, it becomes impossible. This doesn't even include trying to locate recent research in hockey, baseball, football and soccer.
So we've decided to do something about it. Every weekday, the Stathead blog will summarize the best research-related studies, news, conferences, and resources for baseball, basketball, football, hockey and soccer.
The blog will primarily be edited by Neil Paine and will typically feature 20-30 links to analytic content around the internet. We've been working out the format over the last two weeks, and we think you'll soon appreciate our concise summaries for all of the articles we write about.
Revisiting tempo-rature in Milwaukee - Brewhoop’s Alex Boeder looks at the relationship between pace factor and the Milwaukee Bucks’ chances of winning. Link
Thoughts on Pacers, Heat and Mavs - Wayne Winston gives the +/- and impact ratings from recent games. Link
Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks’ Statistical Oddity - As Carl Bialik notes at the WSJ Daily Fix, Jason Kidd might be the poster child for using True Shooting % over raw FG%. Link
The Rise of Roy - At BBall Prospectus, Kevin Pelton writes about Brandon Roy’s vintage performance in Game 3. Link
Heat get offensive on the glass for big lead - ESPN’s Stats & Info dug up the statistical nuggets on Miami’s big offensive rebounding performance. Link
Comparing Bulls/Heat after 3-0 Starts - Hoopdata’s Jeff Fogle looks at the similarities and differences of Chicago and Miami’s 3-0 playoff starts. Link
Oklahoma City Has Stars, and Depth - Writing for the NY Times, Rob Mahoney highlights OKC’s supporting cast, who were efficient despite Denver taking away the team’s bread-and-butter isos and pick & rolls. Link
Bonus Baseball Link:Mets Get Little Bang for Their Bucks - At the NY Times, I reviewed the Mets’ perpetually bad marginal payroll-to-marginal wins ratio. Link
What happens if you create power rankings using Jeremias Engelmann's 4-year Regularized Plus-Minus ratings (the most predictive version of APM) and each playoff team's distribution of minutes through two games?
"The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban, who has been fined millions of dollars in the last 11 years for publicly complaining about officiating."
In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:
However, Google Videos also housed a number of old Charlie Rose interviews with basketball players and writers (Rose, from North Carolina, is a big fan of the game). Here are some that you should watch while you still can:
It was a banner weekend for underdogs, as the away teams kicked off the 2011 Playoffs with 3 wins, including victories by the Western Conference #8 and #7 seeds. How do the road teams' performances in this set of opening-round game 1s compare to other years since the playoffs expanded in 1984?
Let's take a look (all numbers from the perspective of the average road team in Game 1 of the 1st round):