Comments on: Where Would They Be Without Him?

By: pickleball paddles

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By: Joseph

Joseph — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 02:42:27 +0000

Thank you, sir.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 14:47:50 +0000

I think the first published APM stats came in 2003-04 with Dan Rosenbaum's work. I know Winston/Sagarin were doing this in the late 1990s/early 2000s, but WINVAL was totally proprietary so you wouldn't be able to find it. I believe Rosenbaum's public introduction of the metric is still on 82games.com, though.

By: Joseph

Joseph — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 04:43:52 +0000

Neil, do you know how far back the adjusted plus/minus stat goes back? I ask this because I'm wondering how it justifies the MVP winners for past years.

By: Gary Young

Gary Young — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 01:13:26 +0000

@ #62 "The 2006 Heat won all of two games against the top ten in the regular season." * You might wanna check on that stat again if you're talking about top 10 according to records.... I counted 7 to your 2. "The best predictor of success has always been point differential, not win-loss records." * I have yet to hear an analyst and/or a reporter make any predictions, basing them on point differential over win-loss records. "One of the more tired cliches in modern sports lingo. This is a team sport FIRST. Always will be." * Tired Cliche? You can't be serious. Give me one... one... championship team that DID NOT have closer(s)... a team that was just so unpredictable, that no one had a clue that the last shot would go to one or two players on that team. The closest is Detroit and still we all expected Mr. Big Shot to come through. "This doesn't excuse Wade for not shooting the ball well and turning it over during his possesions." No one's making excuses. I'm just stating the facts. The Big 3 of Miami are very talented, but have not yet figured out how to compliment each other... who knows if they ever will. @ #66 That's because I actually WATCHED every series that was mentioned, not analyzing stats & box scores. There are details that both do not cover. It's common sense if you're a real sports fan. There's cause to each one of your "facts".

By: Jay

Jay — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 18:34:56 +0000

Seeing the dwight howard figure here pains me because I don't consider rose a runaway MVP candidate, and this would've been a nice backing for it. However, howard has my vote for MVP, and I just don't see how the magic do much of anything without him as their defensive anchor, and a significant contributor offensively down low.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 19:00:44 +0000

Doc's always been a cunning linguist. Their hurlbat threw out his patella last night. Bad stuff.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 18:47:47 +0000

Did Doc say that in Vogue? His PR people are awesome.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 13:20:50 +0000

I love ambiguity of it. Look how hard we are all examining our formulas and definitions. Reworking and refining them. The scrutiny of interested parties in a community like this one is a great thing. Like Doc Rivers says, "Steel sharpens steel. Then you trade your broadsword for a baton and a bo. Pick up an epee off waivers, and you're all set."

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 10:39:00 +0000

#68 - That's a good point, and it all goes back to how you define "value". I think what you're saying is basically the "where would they be w/o him" argument, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I truly think that the league intentionally leaves the award criteria ambiguous to drive discussion, and there's nothing wrong with that either.