Archive for the 'Layups' Category

With a hat tip to TrueHoop, here's a post from NBA Playbook on an interesting phenomenon to those of us obsessed with stats -- players who are good in one "pure" shooting metric and bad in another.

"Doing a little college basketball stuff, I came across Obi Muonelo, who plays for Oklahoma State.  Looking at his stats, I was amazed to see that Muonelo was only a 58.9% free throw shooter, despite being a 42.6% three point shooter.  I took my amazement to Twitter, and the great Tom Haberstroh let me know that this happens in the NBA too:

Happens in NBA too… http://3.ly/5GCg RT @SebastianPruiti How can someone who shots 42.6% from the 3 only shoot 58.9 FT%? http://3.ly/Q5mS

Tom’s list is an all-time single season list (and Bruce Bowen is featured a ton there), and it got me thinking.  I decided to use this past season and take a look at above average three point shooters with at least 100 attempts (35.6%) and try to figure out why they are below average free throw shooters (76.2%)."

I always felt that FT% is the best indicator of pure shooting form, since unless the player resorts to a gimmicky, Rick Barry-style approach, it's just him, his mechanics, and a basket 15 feet away. Meanwhile, 3P% can be influenced by so many more factors, depending on the player's style of play and/or role in the offense; for instance, look at Jason Kidd's magical transformation from a guy nicknamed "Ason" to a 43% 3-point shooter (!!!) in Dallas. FT% is far less dependent on contextual effects, which seems to make it a better indicator of a player's underlying skill.

Here's a post for fans of players who provide a lot of bang for the buck: over at Basketball Prospectus, Marc Normandin used their SCHOENE projection system to put together a list of this summer's best under-the-radar acquisitions (including underrated new Chicago Bull Ronnie Brewer).

Today I wanted to throw a quick shoutout to Josh Levin, Stefan Fatsis, Mike Pesca, and the rest of the crew over at Slate magazine for their weekly sports podcast "Hang Up And Listen." In a nutshell, it's actually intelligent sports talk (I know, what a concept) about the week's most prominent subjects, along with a trivia segment from Pesca that usually stumps this Sports-Reference employee, and a few words on topics that may have slipped under the radar.

Why am I linking to it now? Well, I found it a week ago and became a devotee because it entertained me during a very tedious data entry project (I've listened to a year's worth of archives in about 12 days). I realize it's currently out of season for basketball, but if you're a sports fan and you like podcasts, put this on your playlist right below the legendary PFR podcast (which, incidentally, I made a cameo on last week and will have another trivia-based appearance coming soon).

Here's a really interesting read from John Krolik at NBC's ProBasketballTalk, regarding what changes we might expect in LeBron James' playing style when he suits up alongside Dwyane Wade & Chris Bosh this fall. John brings up the possibilities of James scoring 25 PPG on a 66.0 True Shooting % if he is freed up to play off the ball and make cuts from the weak side, averaging 10 APG if made the Heat's primary distributor, becoming a better post-up threat if the D respects his ability to pass out of double-teams, and increasing his scoring chances in transition if Miami plays a small, athletic lineup. For all of the obsessing over "The Decision" by casual fans, this kind of discussion -- envisioning how the Heat's new pieces fit together -- is what hardcore hoops junkies should have been having all along.

(H/T: TrueHoop)

Warning, non-basketball-related post...

One of the reasons I've done barely any blogging since last Thursday is that I attended the 40th annual Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) convention in Atlanta over the weekend (since I already live about 15-20 minutes away from the proceedings, it wouldn't have made sense not to go). I had a good time and met a lot of fine people whose names I've known for years and never thought I'd get a chance to meet (I almost went over and talked to Bill James. For real.), so I'd like to take the chance to thank everybody for that opportunity. Aaron Gleeman was one of those people, so I also wanted to link to his recap of the conference, in case anyone else wants to know what we were up to.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled basketball programming. Well, maybe Thursday, at least -- Sports-Reference is going to make a big announcement any day now, so stay tuned.

Drew Cannon wrote a very interesting post for Basketball Prospectus on Monday, regarding player positions. His theory is that coaches should break positions down offensively and defensively, since the former deals with certain specific skillsets (scoring, passing, ballhandling, & rebounding) while the latter is concerned with what level of opposing height and speed a player can defend. Instead of worrying about whether a scorer is in the body of someone who can defend a SF or a PG, Cannon contends (and I'm inclined to agree) that as long as you fill all of the necessary roles on both sides of the ball, it doesn't matter who does what job and whether their defensive position matches up with the traditional offensive role of that slot. Anyway, it's a really good read, so check it out and let me know what you think about traditional positions vs. Cannon's idea.

I'll admit I've been critical of Bill Simmons' initial take on the LeBron "Decision", but I criticize because I care: whether I agree or disagree, I'm a big fan of Bill's work (he certainly gives me a lot of topics to work with), and I especially love it when he has author/pop-culture guru Chuck Klosterman on the B.S. Report because those two seem to bring out the best in each other. Yesterday, he and Chuck had an extremely thought-provoking conversation on the subject of LeBron, raising a number of great questions (one being, if LeBron doesn't care about his legacy, does that make him more or less of an "Alpha Male"?). I strongly recommend that everyone check the discussion out -- if nothing else, it will give you food for thought.

Before Bill Walton was leading the Blazers to a championship, bringing a spark off the bench for the Celtics, and saying hilariously weird things on television, he was one of the best players in college basketball history, helping UCLA survive the loss of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar without missing a beat. And Big Red was perhaps at his very finest in the 1973 National Championship Game against Larry Kenon and Memphis State, pouring in 44 points (on 21-22 shooting) and grabbing 13 boards en route to the Bruins' 87-66 victory. Thanks to the wonders of YouTube, here's Walton's performance, what some consider to be the best ever by a college player:

Kevin Pritchard may have been (undeservedly?) fired as the Blazers' general manager last month, but that's apparently not stopping him from appearing on my third-favorite summer show (Mad Men is always #1, btw, and Psych is clearly #2 for the 80s references alone):

"Kevin Pritchard will be on the show Leverage, Sunday (August 1st) at 9 P.M.. He plays a car salesman. They shot the episode back in April (IIRC) in Portland. [...] Kevin's seen in it around the 50 second mark."

Even though the Chris Paul trade talk is cooling off after his meeting with Hornets brass yesterday, the possibility of the superstar PG changing teams remains a huge topic of conversation this summer -- especially after Paul's Redeem Team mates LeBron James & Chris Bosh relocated through free agency. The most interesting parts of CP3's possible move are the fact that he's still a megastar player, and that it would have to happen via trade, since Paul is still under contract for the next few seasons. Recently, Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus looked at other blockbuster trades featuring a superstar under the age of 30 being dealt. He found that the most similar situation may have been when Tracy McGrady was shipped to Houston in 2004. (Btw, remember when T-Mac was awesome?)