Playoff Preview: #3 Boston vs. #6 New York
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Boston Celtics
56-26, 1st in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doc Rivers (56-26)
PTS/G: 96.5 (23rd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.1 (1st of 30)
SRS: 4.83 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (18th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (2nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 57-25 (4th of 30)
Arena: TD Garden ▪ Attendance: 763,584 (11th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Rajon Rondo | 68 | 2527 | 3.89 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.126 | 17.1 |
| SG | Ray Allen | 80 | 2890 | 2.29 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 0.166 | 16.4 |
| SF | Paul Pierce | 80 | 2774 | 4.70 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 0.201 | 19.7 |
| PF | Kevin Garnett | 71 | 2220 | 5.06 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.194 | 20.6 |
| C | Jermaine O'Neal | 24 | 431 | -5.51 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.065 | 9.2 |
| SF | Jeff Green | 75 | 2427 | -1.14 | -1.6 | -3.5 | 0.095 | 12.9 |
| PF | Glen Davis | 78 | 2298 | -0.73 | -0.4 | -1.1 | 0.102 | 12.8 |
| C | Nenad Krstic | 71 | 1571 | -2.72 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.122 | 13.1 |
| SG | Von Wafer | 58 | 552 | -3.36 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.092 | 10.6 |
| G | Delonte West | 24 | 453 | -1.26 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 0.093 | 12.3 |
| PG | Carlos Arroyo | 64 | 1185 | -4.57 | -1.1 | -1.2 | 0.068 | 9.0 |
| SF | Sasha Pavlovic | 31 | 362 | -4.87 | -2.1 | -3.1 | 0.042 | 6.0 |
| C | Shaquille O'Neal | 37 | 752 | 1.41 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.174 | 17.4 |
| PF | Troy Murphy | 35 | 466 | -3.42 | -2.6 | -0.7 | 0.029 | 8.0 |
| PG | Avery Bradley | 30 | 162 | -9.80 | -1.7 | -1.3 | -0.142 | 2.0 |
New York Knicks
42-40, 2nd in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Mike D'Antoni (42-40)
PTS/G: 106.5 (2nd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 105.7 (28th of 30)
SRS: 0.48 (15th of 30) ▪ Pace: 95.6 (3rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 110.9 (7th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 110.1 (22nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 43-39 (15th of 30)
Arena: Madison Square Garden (IV) ▪ Attendance: 808,879 (5th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Chauncey Billups | 72 | 2310 | 2.56 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 0.166 | 18.7 |
| SG | Landry Fields | 82 | 2541 | -0.55 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.100 | 13.5 |
| SF | Carmelo Anthony | 77 | 2751 | 3.12 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.138 | 21.7 |
| PF | Amare Stoudemire | 78 | 2870 | 1.54 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.134 | 22.7 |
| C | Jared Jeffries | 42 | 601 | -3.43 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.045 | 8.0 |
| PG | Toney Douglas | 81 | 1971 | 1.18 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.101 | 15.2 |
| F | Shawne Williams | 64 | 1323 | -0.95 | -1.1 | -0.2 | 0.089 | 12.2 |
| C | Ronny Turiaf | 64 | 1141 | -0.76 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.134 | 13.6 |
| SG | Roger Mason | 26 | 319 | -5.86 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.029 | 7.1 |
| C | Shelden Williams | 59 | 911 | -2.39 | -1.9 | -0.7 | 0.102 | 12.3 |
| SF | Bill Walker | 61 | 784 | -2.36 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.069 | 11.3 |
| PF | Derrick Brown | 49 | 576 | -2.69 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.083 | 12.9 |
| PG | Anthony Carter | 33 | 463 | -2.16 | -0.1 | -2.2 | 0.024 | 9.3 |
| SF | Renaldo Balkman | 8 | 62 | 0.97 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.114 | 9.3 |
| PG | Andy Rautins | 5 | 24 | -17.96 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.314 | -1.2 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | BOS | NYK | Prob | Games | BOS | NYK | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 29.5% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.6% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.6% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20.3% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 17.8% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15.8% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 17.3% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14.2% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 7.1% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.5% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 5.9% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8.7% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 2.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6.5% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.2% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.5% | |
| BOS | 83.2% | BOS | 65.3% | |||||
| NYK | 16.8% | NYK | 34.7% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 15th, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Is the post deadline prediction a reflection of NY getting better or Boston simply getting much worse?
April 15th, 2011 at 11:24 pm
100% Boston getting worse. I'm not even exaggerating; the Knicks' pyth% with Melo was exactly the same as it was before they got him (the way they did it just changed -- they got a lot better on offense and gave literally all of that improvement back on defense). Boston has just suffered their typical late-season swoon. And before we blame the Perk trade, most of that post-deadline decline came on offense.
April 16th, 2011 at 10:59 am
Rondo can get to the cup, but he can't finish. Ray disappears. Pierce doesn't feel like going to the rack. KG won't post up. That's the Celtics when it's going bad.
Their offense has been awful in the last month. They do not rebound.
But the Knicks don't like to play defense. And their best big doesn't mind a stat line with 2 or 4 rebounds in it (Amare).
The Knicks could be very forgiving of all of the Celtics' weaknesses.
April 16th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Too bad these formula's can't factor in for apathy and other psychological variables that come into play. Boston suffered a second half swoon, much similar to their 2/3 season long water-tread of last year.
We've seen other established teams do this consistently in other years past. New, young, and unproven teams tend to push themselves throughout the regular season while established, older, successful teams often do not approach 82 games the same way.
San Antonio was a pleasant anomaly this year - however, one could argue that the combination of the past few season's downturn in success coupled with the infusion of a heavy dose of younger, less established players (Hill, Splitter, Blair, Neal) into the main rotation also helped to re-install meaning into high regular season performance.
It will be interesting to see if how the playoff efficiencies and scoring differentials balance out in the playoffs, where things like desire, determination, and sense of urgency suddenly become paramount.
April 26th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Has any team ever won four straight playoff games with a different leading scorer?