Comments on: BBR Rankings: 2009-11-20 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 By: khandor Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:39:12 +0000 Site Operators,

Kudos [and thanks] for taking care of that problem with "Ryan".

By: khandor Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:25:31 +0000 Neil,

LOL, :-), in a good way.

By "the best predictor of 'future' wins and losses" you are NOT talking about a supposedly accurate methodology for deciding which of two teams involved in a specific contest which is still to be played in the future, is more likely to win this game than the other.

What you really mean to say, instead, is that:

"The SRS is the best 'predictor' of the specific number of total games a certain team is likely going to win during the following/next [i.e. subsequent] NBA season."

In which case, I completely understand the veracity of THAT highly specific claim.

Thanks for the clarification [in a "Back To The Future" sense].

By: Jason J Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:29:43 +0000 I like that Josh Smith stopped shooting threes and started attacking the rim and immediately the Hawks jumped up a notch.

I like that Melo started paying a little attention to defending and lost a touch of weight, and the Nuggets jumped up a notch.

I like that Grant Hill decided to play like he was about 6 years younger than his actual age, and Jason Richardson started hitting the boards, and the Suns jumped up 3 notches.

Nice system, Neil.

By: Neil Paine Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:32:48 +0000 There's a great deal of research out there, but this springs to mind:

By: khandor Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:28:16 +0000 Neil,

re: "The Simple Rating System is the best predictor of future wins and losses because it focuses purely on point differential, filtering out the whims of lucky or unlucky performance in close games (which has been shown to have no bearing on future performance regardless of coach or players)."

Upon what basis would you make this specific claim, concerning the veracity of the SRS, as "the best predictor of future wins and losses"?

By: Neil Paine Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:44:24 +0000 Since, like, forever. Remember, SRS is point differential, but it also adjusts for strength of schedule, so it can't help but be a better predictor than raw point diff.

Secondly, the point is to credit teams for wins and losses in the past, even if those outcomes were lucky/unlucky. The advantage over straight W-L is that this method accounts for the location of the game, as well as how good/bad the teams they played were. Raw W-L treats all games the same, home or road, good or bad opponents.

By: 123 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:35:38 +0000 -since when is SRS a better predictor than point differential?

-what's the point in creating a rating system that's not good in predicting future wins? If I want to know how good a team was in the past I'll just look at their W-L record

By: P Middy Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:34:20 +0000 "All of this is to say that the premise of these rankings is to rate NBA teams on their past accomplishments rather than their likelihood of winning in the future."


By: DSMok1 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:08:59 +0000 Good job with the methodology! I like that formula a lot.