Comments on: Will the 2011 Heat Emulate the 2007 Patriots? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Bob M. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25271 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:30:34 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25271 The one stat I take stock in is Win Shares because it takes stats in consideration with the effect on team win totals. Looking at win shares from last season, Heat should win about 60-63 games this year. They should win it all, but I don't think this year's team will be one of the 5 best ever. They'll be more in line with the 90-91 Bulls than the 95-96 version.

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By: ARLISA WILLIAMS http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25257 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 21:19:56 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25257 I agree with a comment made that football is different from basketball,the miami heat will win 73 or74 games the reason i write this is becuase of the hatred as well as the talk that other nba player have express.All 3 players have defense as well as offense all 3 is perimeter shooters all 3 can block shots all 3 can dunk all 3 can pass to open shooters what more do you need in a basketball team and also they will beat the lakers in the finals,this is a team worth betting on go miami heeeeat.

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25243 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:45:24 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25243 Horace was never really the sort of producer that Bosh is, though I think we was a superior defender, and may actually be a better role player. He did not have nearly Bosh's diversity of talents or explosive scoring potential (whether that works for or against Miami is yet to be seen). We haven't seen Bosh has a low-usage cog in the machine yet. He may be a better dedicated defender / rebounder than we know. He actually outperformed Dwight in that role for Team USA, but that was largely because his quickness kept him out of foul trouble and his ability to shoot from distance kept him out of the way of his penetrating teammates.

I like the MJ/Pip to Wade/Bron comparisons, but I think Wade/Bosh has way more actual talent. Jordan and LeBron are basically a wash in ability with Jordan having the edge in hyper-competitiveness and advanced skills development. Wade though is significantly more productive than Pippen has ever been. Even at this absolute best when he was in prime carrying Chicago w/out MJ he maxed out in PER at 23 and his highest WS was 13 (with MJ). Wade has had 4 seasons with PER over 27 (he even broke 30 once which I think only Jordan and TMac had previously done as guards), and he's got a couple of 14+ WS seasons as well. Ideally I think they want to emulate that Pippen / Jordan synergy and dial it back some, but in terms of overall ability, they seem to be starting from a higher point on the imaginary curve.

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By: mike1361 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25239 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 14:35:24 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25239 The Heat team reminds me a lot of the great Bulls teams of the 90's .... particularly the 2nd 3-peat team. LEBRON = PIPPIN, WADE = JORDAN, BOSH = RODMAN

both teams had 3 big stiffs clogging the middle at center (none of whom were super stars)

Bulls had Kerr or Paxton on the perimeter shooting wide open 3's when Pippin and MJ were double teamed .... and Heat will have Miller (J.Jones or E.House)

Of course, the Bulls had Phil Jackson .... and Heat have Spoelstra. However, Heat has Riley in reserve, in case Spo doesnt do the job ....

The Bulls had another advantage ..... no great opponents (Lakers and Pistons were past their prime) ..... Heat has to get past Boston, Orlando, and Lakers (all 3 of those teams are loaded)

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By: RobertAugustdeMeijer http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25221 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 09:50:41 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25221 Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't their talent level about as high as the early 90's Bulls teams? Jordan better than Wade, but James better than Pippen. Bosh's offensive abilities might make him better than Grant, but I like to believe that Horace was a better fit. The rest of both teams are made up of 3-pt/post-gruntwork roleplayers. Is that any indication of 2010 Heatt greatness?

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By: storyofgreats http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25220 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 09:38:15 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25220 I say 75W 7L.Dwade And Bron will be FT machines averaging 15FTs a game.16-0 in the playoffs.No one can slow them let alone stop.

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By: Marquis http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25188 Sun, 26 Sep 2010 20:17:39 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25188 There is no precedent, that's exactly why they will endure more hate. That alone is enough for these guys to dominate close games! 3/5 of any team they play they will have the mismatch or upper hand. Being a cohesive unit will make them stronger at each position, due to double teams.

If they can work out who the QB will be: lebron is a better playmaker, & Wad3 is a better finisher... Then they will dominate faster. The HEAT will change the game!

Now we get to watch it come together, because for certain they will eclipse 72 wins next year when they will have the money to acquire solid 5 & 1s..... This regular season its dedicated solely to finding cohesion, a rotation, & bench.

T hen they can hit the ground running for the 2nd season.
After KG won the ring in 2008, he said; "anything is possible" & "What you gonna say now?"

Let's go Heat!

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By: AYC http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25172 Sun, 26 Sep 2010 15:46:14 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25172 This is stating the obvious, but basketball and football are very different sports. Football has alot more players, entirely different units for offense and defense (plus special teams) and more injuries. This makes it harder for any single player, even a superstar, to impact a game.

In B-ball, you have just five players on the court, playing both D and offense. A single superstar like Lebron or Wade has a huge impact. Also, the nature of the sport, especially due to the shot-clock, makes it impossible to shut a team out. Between that and best of 7 playoff series, the best team wins much more often in basketball. I see no need for MIA to "pace" themselves; dominant regular season teams typically win it all in the NBA. Of the 15 teams that have won at least 65 games in the reg season, 12 won it all.

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By: BSK http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25166 Sun, 26 Sep 2010 13:33:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25166 Nick@8-

I've made a similar point before, largely that you can run out 2 of each at a team, lower each players' MPG, and likely still have a better 5 on the team than your opponent. The notion that the big 3 will play together for 45 minutes a game is just foolish. None of the three ever had a teammate as good as one of the other. Suddenly they have two. And their supporting cast is better than was initially predicted. Leaving all the Vitriol aside, if we objectively looked at just TWO of these guys on the same team with the rest of the supporting cast in place, we'd still likely pick them to win at least the East, if not the finals. Throw in the third and it just puts them over the top. LeBron took sub-par teammates to the 60-win seasons and 2nd and 3rd round playoff series... why would he do worse with Bosh and Wade? Wade dragged a crappy team to the playoffs... he's going to do less with more? Bosh... well, Bosh's team sucked lately, but he had some successful seasons in Toronto and is only being asked to be third banana.

This team will be dominant without stressing any player out. They may not be 72-win dominant with this approach, but they'll still be the best team in the league and, as far as I see, have virtually no ceiling, especially if they go into a one-season 'eff-you' mode.

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By: BSK http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467&cpage=1#comment-25165 Sun, 26 Sep 2010 13:27:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7467#comment-25165 I think there is somewhat of a difference between the '10-'11 Heat and the '07 Patriots, largely because of the tactical/strategic differences between basketball and football. During the Eagles game, Philly presented a defensive blueprint for slowing down the Patriots offense. They had the benefit of 11 weeks of game tape, plus the defensive brainpower and personnel to devise and implement such a defensive game plan.

In the NBA, we just don't see that level of game planning and strategy, because the game is so different. Teams have 7 years of film on Bosh, Wade, and LeBron, and have only become so effective at slowing any of the three guys down. Whatever game plan the Heat approach the season with, I doubt teams will reach a point where they are effectively able to slow it or stop it. I'm sure they'll all get a bit better once they actually see how the Heat play (as opposed to the conjecture we are left with now), but I doubt we'll see the major difference we saw with the Patriots.

There are obviously other reasons to think the Heat won't achieve a historic season, but I don't know that that element is one. Fatigue, interest, health, and cohesion are all reasons that they might not reach 72 or 75 or 82. I don't think that game plan and in-season adjustments are reasons like they were for the Patriots.

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