Comments on: Danny Crawford and the Mavs http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: freerangemike http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48782 Fri, 06 May 2011 16:12:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48782 I'd love to have all of the stats on ref-team pairings. You could generate a distribution with mean and st dev based on all of Crawford's pairings and see the probability that 2-16 is from the same distribution. You could do the same for the Mavs with all of the other refs. And see the distribution for the entire league.

Short of that, a Fishers T-Test helps investigate a 2-way table like this. Given 48 wins and 41 losses in non-Crawford games and 2 wins and 16 loses in Crawford games, the p-value for the two-tail test is 0.0013. This means, if we assume that Crawford had no affect on those games (this was random), and we wanted to be 99% sure of our conclusion, we would reject the hypothesis. Crawford is a statistically significant variable when considering the Maverick's win-loss record.

It doesn't mean he causes losses, but I cannot conclude that Crawford is an independent variable. The correlation between Crawford and Mavericks losses is not a random occurrence.

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By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48427 Sat, 23 Apr 2011 17:48:18 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48427 There was some BS against Dallas in that Miami/ Dallas Finals. To now know this crap about Crawford AFTER I already thought something was fishy----is just bad.

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By: Jason http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48344 Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:31:54 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48344 I don't really get why the Wyatt Earp effect is such a big deal. Yes, I understand that given a purely random situation, seemingly improbable events have to occur (ie, given enough attempts, there will be a time when I flip a coin heads a hundred straight times). Nevertheless, Wyatt Earp is only a fallacy if somebody tries to use a statistic as incontrovertible proof. If instead you're asking how likely it is that a statistic is random versus caused, then there's no reason you can't do this sort of analysis.

Example: given a purely random distribution and a large enough sample, it is inevitable that one day a terrible basketball team will win all 82 games by more than 10 points a game. Should that prevent us from evaluating how good a team is based on their wins and win margin? No. Because it's more likely that there is a cause behind their success than it is that it was random.

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By: Cort http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48327 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 23:40:03 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48327 ok i just read some of the ESPN article and saw crawford officiated game 6 as well. i think it was predictable that dallas won last night given all the belated attention given to crawford's history with the mavs.

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By: Cort http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48326 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 23:32:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48326 does anyone know if crawford refereed either game 5 or game 6 of the 2006 Finals? in game 5, wade shot 25 free throws himself, equal to the entire dallas team. miami shot 49 - 49! think about that,virtually twice as many as the mavs.
in game 6, wade shot 21 FTs and the mavs took 23 as a team compared to 37 by miami. hmm. i do recall that the decisive play, a foul at the end of game 5, was a phantom whistle on a wade drive that made his FTs the difference in a 101-100 win.
i think crawford also refereed game 3 when dallas blew the big lead late which allowed miami to get back in the series instead of being down 3-0.

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By: Mo http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48321 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 20:43:00 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48321 This seems apropos.

http://www.xkcd.com/882/

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By: DWarner http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48319 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 19:55:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48319 This is great conversation.

History occurs in two ways. Conspiratorially or Accidentally. Your piece clearly shows that numerically this was obviously no accident. So of course there was conspiracy!

Numbers rarely lie. I've always brought up the Miami series when discussion of referee involvement arises. Wade became a superstar at the stripe on phantom calls that generally occurred away from the basket. The players who set records for FT attempts are guys that the opponent wants to put at the stripe at the end of games like Shaq or Howard, not players who are hitting 90% like Wade in that series.

But for me it isn't as simple as examining the individual referee, in this case Mr. Crawford. No conspiracy is as simple as placing the blame on one individual. It's like blaming the president for all the worlds problems when there are so many forces in play. Crawford is just one piece in what is probably a complicated process.

The NBA powers that be have to be considered the major players in this conspiracy as they keep putting refs in situations where they know it creates justified questioning. To believe that they are unaware of Crawford's, and every referees scenario, is short sighted. The NBA is nothing more than an entertainment business and they attempt to control as much of the production as possible.

As a fan of the game and the League, it is a bit tough to swallow to think players can be relegated to be little more than puppets in an elaborate play. However, it is one more reason why comparing championship rings when comparing individual players is irrelevant...

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By: BSK http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48313 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 18:34:45 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48313 That last statement may be just a TAD simplified. But the point still stands, I think. Given a large enough sample size, even events that are exceedingly rare are likely to happen. My hunch is that the sample size of team-ref pairing in the playoffs of >= 17 games is high enough that we could reasonably expect an outcome like this to happen. Then again, my sense of how many times a given ref has reffered a teams playoff games 17 times might be wildly off base.

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By: BSK http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48312 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 18:32:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48312 Do we even need to know the record of every team-ref pairing? The data here says it would happen 5 out of every 1000 occurences with an "occurence" being defined as 17 playoff games played by a particular team and refed by a particular ref. Now, every occurence will have a slightly different probabibility (based on the win probability of the team in question versus its opponent), but I think it is safe to say they will all fall roughly into the same area. As such, all we need to do is find 200 "occurences" and we have a pretty solid shot of it happening at least once and 1000 occurences to find it happening about 5 times.

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By: M.W. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295&cpage=1#comment-48310 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 17:09:08 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9295#comment-48310 I'll see if I can find a minute to locate something for you. Of course, it's not 1-8 any more since then, is it? It's now 2-8.

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