Comments on: PI Finds: Kidd Tidbits

By: Gil Meriken

Gil Meriken — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 07:59:35 +0000

It's very early in the season, but I'm already setting 'em up! If Lebron ends up at his previous levels, I'll have to skulk away into the recesses of cyberspace.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 04:47:23 +0000

Not saying I disagree with the idea that his production is changing because of his new situation, but I'm also not sure you can say it isn't just a random occurrence. He had 1 reb in a game as recently as Feb. '09:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200902260HOU.html

He had a 2-reb game less than a calendar year ago:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200911180WAS.html

Sometimes outlier games like these can happen without indicating any underlying skill change. Granted, his Reb % is down from his 2008-10 levels, but that's a 5-game sample -- I think you could probably find a 5-game stretch over the past 3 years where he rebounded just as far below his usual rates -- and even with the decline he's still at his 2006/07 rates.

By: Gil Meriken

Gil Meriken — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 03:58:49 +0000

I'm finding the Lebron switch of teams and roles to be all sorts of interesting: today, Lebron finished with zero rebounds for the first time since his rookie season. It's one game, obviously, but you have to concede this isn't just a random occurrence, it's simply a consequence of his role on this new team. So the troll in me wants to state "Lebron is now a worse rebounder than last year!", but I know this just means "Lebron is a less productive rebounder because of the dynamics of his team". Curious to see what all of your takes are on this fascinating experiment of a big superstar changing teams and also changing his role (not in magnitude, but in terms of what the team needs from him). We've seen previous examples like Jason Kidd, and other stars, but for the most part they were expected to do pretty much what they were doing on their old teams.

By: Anon

Anon — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 16:35:41 +0000

Thanks for the info DSMok1. Great stuff. If you look at J-Kidd's SPM and WS/48 they seem to match up for the most part: he always gives you above-average to occasionally great seasons, and also gives you consistency and longevity. He actually exemplies the usage-efficiency tradeoff with his career - he goes from being "The Man" in Jersey to complementing Dirk on offense, so what does he do? He continues to set up his teammates but he also finds his sweet spots on the floor. Dirk constanty draws double teams on the high-post/extended wing, and J-Kidd gets open looks on the perimeter and become accustomed to knocking down the jump shot, especially from long-range. Higher ORtgs as a result.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 16:02:31 +0000

Here is a full chart of Jason Kidd's advanced statistics and his ASPM, over the years. I don't think I can imbed it here, so here is a link to it: Jason Kidd Chart

By: Anon

Anon — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 15:38:57 +0000

The usage-efficiency model is definetely simple, but it just...WORKS. Not all truths have to be of the complicated kind and usage-efficiency is certainly an observable phenomenon that is an important part of how basketball works. It isn't always a nice and neat linear relationship though, which is why the +/- regressions is also useful. As for LeBron, as Neil noted he actually hasn't taken a step back in the offense so far this season (as some of his always loyal critics have quipped, "Is this the Miami Heat or the Cleveland Cavaliers offense?"). Part of this is picking up the slack for Wade as he was working his way back into playing shape after his hamstring injury, and also he's still figuring out his role in the offense. Notice the spike in turnover rate since he joined the Heat - ORtg doesn't like high turnovers and LeBron is sitting sub-100 as a result. But I think once he gets more accustomed to his teammates (and they become more accustomed to him; except for Wade, Bosh, and Big Z who seems to always be ready for a LeBron pass none of these guys have played with a 6'8 point guard) he'll get back to his usual LeBron-esque performances.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 14:57:45 +0000

ASPM has Kidd a consistent top-flight performer. Here is his career:

Year Team Player Age Games Min ASPM VORP
1995 DAL Jason Kidd 21 79 2668 0.66 2.45
1996 DAL Jason Kidd 22 81 3034 2.27 4.01
1997 PHO Jason Kidd 23 33 1173 3.57 1.94
1997 DAL Jason Kidd 23 22 791 0.73 0.77
1998 PHO Jason Kidd 24 82 3118 2.18 4.05
1999 PHO Jason Kidd 25 50 2060 6.05 7.74
2000 PHO Jason Kidd 26 67 2616 4.01 4.63
2001 PHO Jason Kidd 27 77 3065 4.43 5.75
2002 NJN Jason Kidd 28 82 3056 4.61 5.86
2003 NJN Jason Kidd 29 80 2989 6.63 7.29
2004 NJN Jason Kidd 30 67 2450 4.85 4.88
2005 NJN Jason Kidd 31 66 2435 4.45 4.56
2006 NJN Jason Kidd 32 80 2975 4.71 5.80
2007 NJN Jason Kidd 33 80 2933 3.94 5.12
2008 NJN Jason Kidd 34 51 1895 1.54 2.17
2008 DAL Jason Kidd 34 29 1011 4.42 1.90
2009 DAL Jason Kidd 35 81 2886 3.23 4.54
2010 DAL Jason Kidd 36 80 2881 3.08 4.41

He has been consistently very good. His total VORP puts him 15th since 1977, right there with Kobe, Drexler, and Payton.

Perhaps the most underrated PG, I think.

By: Gil Meriken

Gil Meriken — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 05:18:53 +0000

That is an interesting case of switching teams and keeping similar WS/48. But I wouldn't say that Kidd's role is all that different in Dallas, unless you mean the magnitude of his role - obviously he is not the main star, but his skill set as point guard that he utilized in New Jersey is the same one which the Mavs rely on. He also came into a situation where he was not sharing time with another player with a similar skill set/role, as the Mavs traded away Devin Harris. In contrast, Lebron will be playing with Wade, creating some duplication of skill set/role. Whether this matters or not to overall production is my big question, and that's why I will be following this season very closely to see the implications of what a different WS/48 for Lebron or Wade would mean. If they end up close (within 5-10%?) to their historical WS/48, this would all be a moot point, and would seem to indicate that WS/48 does work to measure some intrinsic value of a player, something I'm not yet convinced of, but maybe you already agree with that. As you wrote, it's a measure of a value to a specific team, so that a player could be less valued, but still be the same player he always was.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 04:49:07 +0000

OK, just making sure there wasn't an obvious Jason Kidd angle I was missing. :)

In fact, oddly enough, Kidd's WS/48 after going to Dallas has been basically what you would have expected from his last few years in New Jersey, despite playing a pretty different role in the offense.

By: Gil Meriken

Gil Meriken — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 04:27:44 +0000

2. What does this had to do with Jason Kidd's performance? Everything.

Just kidding. Nothing. Totally off topic, and thanks for the response.