You can lead a horse to water...

I don't think you do in this particular situation. The 3's are what created the value by potentially saving an extra possession.

That's why when you're down by 6 points with 20 seconds left, you need to go for 2 3's, not 3 2's.

I'm glad we can agree on that.

"What matters is that an extra rebound opportunity increases the expected point total."

Yes, that's why I credit the rebounder.

"You still don't seem to get that B enables one more offensive rebound opportunity"

My point is that the Orb and putback doesn't accomplish anything more than if the original shot attempt had been made in the first place. The goal of the offense is not to grab Orbs, but to shoot more efficiently than the opponent; that's how you win games. It's possible to get more shot attempts than your opponent, but usually not that many more, thanks to the shot-clock; and teams win games with fewer shot attempts than their opponents all the time. Usually the team that attempts more shots just has more misses.

There are three ways I can think of to get more shot attempts: you can steal the ball, benefit from a turnover, or get an Orb. In the first two cases it's possible to get consecutive made field goals, but in the case of Orbs, it's not possible. Because the ORb merely cancels out the missed shot that made the Orb possible/necessary. I get the value that hitting 3s adds, but not missing shots.

Anyway, it's been fun. I think I've made my point, and we're starting to go 'round in circles, so this is my final post on the matter.

you'd think so, right?