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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Boston Celtics	59.2	22.8	.721	1.74	-0.58	10.22	16-5	43-18	71-11	43-39	100.0%	80.4%	78.1	17.1	3.6	0.8	0.2	0.1				100.0	0.1						45.1%	32.4%
2	Philadelphia 76ers	55.3	26.7	.674	1.23	-0.74	8.33	14-7	41-20	68-14	41-41	99.8%	19.2%	18.5	53.2	17.0	6.7	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.2		99.1	0.6	0.2	0.1				26.8%	17.4%
3	Orlando Magic	49.9	32.1	.609	-0.85	0.03	4.06	15-7	35-25	64-18	35-47	95.5%	87.2%	2.0	13.2	27.3	20.1	14.5	9.6	5.2	3.7		86.7	6.6	3.5	2.3	0.9	0.2		7.0%	3.0%
4	Milwaukee Bucks	48.7	33.3	.594	-0.27	0.25	3.14	15-7	34-26	62-20	34-48	91.9%	52.0%	0.7	7.2	18.1	19.6	17.1	14.0	8.8	6.5		76.7	10.6	6.9	3.9	1.6	0.4		4.4%	1.8%
5	Indiana Pacers	46.7	35.3	.570	-0.27	0.22	3.24	12-8	35-27	61-21	31-51	83.4%	33.1%	0.3	3.3	9.7	14.2	15.4	15.4	14.7	10.5		58.3	14.9	12.7	8.1	4.4	1.7		3.6%	1.4%
6	Brooklyn Nets	47.7	34.3	.581	0.51	-0.05	4.28	12-9	36-25	59-23	34-48	88.2%	0.3%	0.2	3.0	12.1	16.7	17.9	15.9	13.2	9.2		65.8	13.6	10.5	6.5	2.9	0.7		6.6%	3.3%
7	New York Knicks	46.0	36.0	.561	-0.04	0.55	3.25	12-9	34-27	60-22	32-50	78.8%	0.1%	0.1	1.5	5.7	10.1	13.6	17.2	17.5	13.3		48.1	17.0	15.9	11.0	6.1	2.1		3.7%	1.3%
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	45.0	37.0	.549	0.80	-0.14	1.48	13-9	32-28	59-23	29-53	68.5%	14.9%	0.1	1.3	4.6	7.4	10.1	13.7	16.2	15.2		37.1	16.1	18.0	15.7	9.6	3.5		1.4%	0.5%

9	Miami Heat	43.2	38.8	.527	-0.07	-0.02	0.79	12-10	31-29	58-24	29-53	51.9%	9.2%		0.3	1.6	3.3	6.2	8.5	14.0	18.2		19.8	12.7	17.8	23.5	17.9	8.3		0.9%	0.3%
10	Atlanta Hawks	41.0	41.0	.500	1.27	-0.04	1.03	9-12	32-29	54-28	26-56	31.4%	3.6%			0.5	1.1	2.1	3.8	7.9	16.0		7.5	6.3	10.8	20.2	32.2	23.0		0.5%	0.2%
11	Toronto Raptors	37.5	44.5	.457	0.77	0.15	-0.96	9-13	29-31	51-31	23-59	9.2%					0.1	0.3	0.7	2.0	6.1		1.1	1.5	3.3	7.5	19.3	67.3
12	Chicago Bulls	33.5	48.5	.408	0.28	0.05	-3.81	9-14	24-35	49-33	21-61	1.3%								0.2	1.1			0.1	0.4	1.4	4.9	93.2
13	Charlotte Hornets	28.3	53.7	.345	0.68	0.48	-7.23	7-13	21-41	43-39	16-66																0.3	99.7
14	Washington Wizards	23.3	58.7	.284	0.96	0.44	-8.08	3-18	20-41	39-43	11-71																	100.0
15	Detroit Pistons	18.7	63.3	.228	-0.01	0.79	-10.24	2-20	17-43	33-49	7-75																	100.0

Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Minnesota Timberwolves	55.8	26.2	.680	-1.33	-0.32	6.48	17-4	39-22	70-12	40-42	100.0%	64.5%	62.3	25.9	7.3	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1		99.7	0.2	0.1					29.4%	12.7%
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	53.8	28.2	.656	-0.06	-0.62	7.18	14-7	40-21	66-16	40-42	99.8%	32.4%	31.1	41.3	15.5	6.9	3.1	1.2	0.5	0.2		99.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1			32.5%	15.1%
3	Denver Nuggets	48.3	33.7	.589	0.14	-0.57	3.14	14-9	34-25	62-20	33-49	93.7%	3.2%	2.9	10.8	21.5	19.5	16.7	11.5	6.1	4.8		82.8	6.8	4.8	3.3	1.6	0.7		9.3%	2.8%
4	Houston Rockets	47.4	34.6	.578	0.48	-0.82	3.90	10-9	37-26	61-21	34-48	90.0%	59.2%	1.9	9.5	18.2	18.8	15.0	11.3	8.5	6.7		74.8	9.1	6.7	4.8	3.1	1.5		10.2%	3.3%
5	Dallas Mavericks	45.6	36.4	.557	-1.57	0.06	1.62	13-8	33-28	60-22	31-51	79.5%	36.0%	0.6	4.1	10.8	13.2	13.9	14.8	11.8	10.1		57.5	12.6	10.6	8.4	7.0	4.0		4.0%	0.9%
6	Los Angeles Lakers	45.0	37.0	.549	0.01	0.03	1.19	14-9	31-28	61-21	30-52	74.9%	31.6%	0.6	3.1	8.6	11.0	12.6	14.0	14.1	11.0		49.9	14.1	12.9	10.5	7.6	5.0		3.3%	0.8%
7	Los Angeles Clippers	44.6	37.4	.544	-1.62	0.10	2.43	11-10	34-27	58-24	30-52	72.1%	27.8%	0.4	2.6	7.1	10.1	12.2	12.7	13.7	13.2		45.2	13.0	13.0	11.9	9.8	7.0		4.6%	1.3%
8	Golden State Warriors	43.5	38.5	.531	1.41	-0.94	1.81	10-12	34-26	57-25	28-54	63.7%	17.7%	0.1	1.2	4.5	6.9	9.1	12.3	14.7	15.0		34.0	14.0	14.3	14.1	12.9	10.8		3.7%	1.0%

9	Sacramento Kings	43.2	38.8	.527	0.38	0.00	0.08	12-8	31-31	59-23	30-52	55.6%	16.3%	0.1	1.0	4.0	6.4	8.8	10.2	12.3	12.9		30.4	12.2	14.1	15.3	14.5	13.5		1.5%	0.3%
10	Phoenix Suns	41.2	40.8	.503	-2.39	0.48	-0.25	12-10	29-31	57-25	28-54	36.2%	6.6%	0.1	0.4	1.3	2.5	4.1	5.8	9.0	13.0		14.1	8.7	11.9	16.6	20.7	27.9		0.9%	0.2%
11	New Orleans Pelicans	40.9	41.1	.499	0.01	-0.30	-0.73	12-11	29-30	55-27	27-55	34.7%	4.8%		0.2	1.1	2.1	3.4	5.7	9.0	13.1		12.5	8.7	11.5	15.0	22.6	29.7		0.7%	0.1%
12	Memphis Grizzlies	26.2	55.8	.320	-1.76	0.69	-7.66	6-15	20-41	42-40	13-69																	100.0
13	Portland Trail Blazers	26.1	55.9	.319	-0.89	0.71	-7.79	6-15	20-41	39-43	12-70																	100.0
14	Utah Jazz	23.9	58.1	.292	-0.97	1.01	-9.69	7-15	17-43	39-43	13-69																	100.0
15	San Antonio Spurs	20.6	61.4	.251	1.55	0.05	-10.50	3-18	18-43	33-49	9-73																	100.0