Is There an NBA Live Curse?
Posted by Neil Paine on November 24, 2008
Over the years, much has been written about the so-called "Madden Curse," a powerful jinx that afflicts those football players worthy (and unfortunate) enough to appear on the box of EA Sports' Madden NFL video game. It seems that simply by virtue of being Madden's pitchman, a player will either suffer a debilitating injury or a sudden, precipitous decline in production -- or both. Pretty spooky, right?
Well, my question is this: in light of the injuries to Gilbert Arenas and Tony Parker in recent seasons, does the curse extend to other EA Sports video games -- say, for instance, the NBA Live series? Or are those simply isolated incidents in the history of Live and its cover stars? Conversely, is there something particular about the Madden game (or, more broadly, the sport of football in general) that affects its cover athletes more frequently than those of EA's other series? Well, I can't speak to the NHL, FIFA, or MVP Baseball series, but I can look at all of Live's past spokesmen and assess whether or not there is a similar pattern of players suffering injuries and/or declines when they are chosen to appear on the game's cover.
The metric of choice, of course, is Win Shares. When possible, we're going to examine each player's performance before his "cover season," during it, and in subsequent seasons. Then we'll look at the averages by WS/3000 minutes (WS/3K) to see if being Live's cover boy has a significant effect on a player's productivity. To the data...
+--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ James Worthy 1989 LAL 2960 9.70 9.83 Y-2 James Worthy 1990 LAL 2960 10.38 10.52 Y-1 James Worthy 1991 LAL 3008 8.62 8.59 Y Lakers vs Celtics James Worthy 1992 LAL 2108 2.95 4.20 Y+1 James Worthy 1993 LAL 2359 2.95 3.75 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Scottie Pippen 1990 CHI 3148 5.63 5.36 Y-2 Scottie Pippen 1991 CHI 3014 10.97 10.92 Y-1 Scottie Pippen 1992 CHI 3164 12.37 11.73 Y Bulls vs Lakers Scottie Pippen 1993 CHI 3123 8.22 7.89 Y+1 Scottie Pippen 1994 CHI 2759 10.80 11.74 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Scottie Pippen 1991 CHI 3014 10.97 10.92 Y-2 Scottie Pippen 1992 CHI 3164 12.37 11.73 Y-1 Scottie Pippen 1993 CHI 3123 8.22 7.89 Y Bulls vs Blazers Scottie Pippen 1994 CHI 2759 10.80 11.74 Y+1 Scottie Pippen 1995 CHI 3014 11.68 11.62 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Patrick Ewing 1992 NYK 3150 12.51 11.92 Y-2 Patrick Ewing 1993 NYK 3003 10.37 10.36 Y-1 Patrick Ewing 1994 NYK 2972 12.75 12.87 Y NBA Showdown '94 Patrick Ewing 1995 NYK 2920 9.38 9.64 Y+1 (GEN) Patrick Ewing 1996 NYK 2783 6.69 7.21 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Scottie Pippen 1992 CHI 3164 12.37 11.73 Y-2 Scottie Pippen 1993 CHI 3123 8.22 7.89 Y-1 Scottie Pippen 1994 CHI 2759 10.80 11.74 Y NBA Showdown '94 Scottie Pippen 1995 CHI 3014 11.68 11.62 Y+1 (SNES) Scottie Pippen 1996 CHI 2825 12.19 12.95 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Robert Horry 1993 HOU 2330 3.54 4.56 Y-2 Robert Horry 1994 HOU 2370 5.90 7.47 Y-1 Robert Horry 1995 HOU 2074 4.23 6.12 Y NBA Live 95 Robert Horry 1996 HOU 2634 4.96 5.65 Y+1 Robert Horry 1997 LAL 676 2.18 9.69 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ John Starks 1993 NYK 2477 7.30 8.84 Y-2 John Starks 1994 NYK 2057 5.64 8.22 Y-1 John Starks 1995 NYK 2725 6.06 6.67 Y NBA Live 95 John Starks 1996 NYK 2491 5.66 6.82 Y+1 John Starks 1997 NYK 2042 5.80 8.52 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Shaq O'Neal 1994 ORL 3224 16.93 15.75 Y-2 Shaq O'Neal 1995 ORL 2923 14.36 14.74 Y-1 Shaq O'Neal 1996 ORL 1946 6.94 10.70 Y NBA Live 96 Shaq O'Neal 1997 LAL 1941 8.04 12.43 Y+1 Shaq O'Neal 1998 LAL 2175 10.54 14.54 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Mitch Richmond 1995 SAC 3172 7.90 7.48 Y-2 Mitch Richmond 1996 SAC 2946 9.43 9.60 Y-1 Mitch Richmond 1997 SAC 3125 10.91 10.48 Y NBA Live 97 Mitch Richmond 1998 SAC 2569 8.07 9.42 Y+1 Mitch Richmond 1999 WAS 1912 3.30 5.18 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Tim Hardaway 1996 MIA 1047 3.34 9.57 Y-2 Tim Hardaway 1997 MIA 3136 12.64 12.09 Y-1 Tim Hardaway 1998 MIA 3031 11.40 11.28 Y NBA Live 98 Tim Hardaway 1999 MIA 1772 5.12 8.67 Y+1 Tim Hardaway 2000 MIA 1672 4.12 7.38 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Antoine Walker 1997 BOS 2970 1.80 1.82 Y-2 Antoine Walker 1998 BOS 3268 4.90 4.50 Y-1 Antoine Walker 1999 BOS 1549 2.64 5.11 Y NBA Live 99 Antoine Walker 2000 BOS 3003 5.09 5.09 Y+1 Antoine Walker 2001 BOS 3396 6.65 5.87 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Tim Duncan 1998 SAS 3204 12.53 11.73 Y-2 Tim Duncan 1999 SAS 1963 8.70 13.30 Y-1 Tim Duncan 2000 SAS 2875 12.70 13.26 Y NBA Live 2000 Tim Duncan 2001 SAS 3174 12.99 12.28 Y+1 Tim Duncan 2002 SAS 3329 17.68 15.93 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Kevin Garnett 1999 MIN 1780 5.53 9.33 Y-2 Kevin Garnett 2000 MIN 3243 11.47 10.61 Y-1 Kevin Garnett 2001 MIN 3202 11.84 11.09 Y NBA Live 2001 Kevin Garnett 2002 MIN 3175 12.78 12.07 Y+1 Kevin Garnett 2003 MIN 3322 15.76 14.23 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Steve Francis 2000 HOU 2776 6.49 7.01 Y-2 Steve Francis 2001 HOU 3194 12.10 11.36 Y-1 Steve Francis 2002 HOU 2343 4.30 5.50 Y NBA Live 2002 Steve Francis 2003 HOU 3318 10.82 9.78 Y+1 Steve Francis 2004 HOU 3194 6.92 6.50 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Jason Kidd 2001 PHO 3065 9.76 9.55 Y-2 Jason Kidd 2002 NJN 3056 9.03 8.87 Y-1 Jason Kidd 2003 NJN 2989 11.42 11.46 Y NBA Live 2003 Jason Kidd 2004 NJN 2450 7.12 8.72 Y+1 Jason Kidd 2005 NJN 2435 7.10 8.75 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Vince Carter 2002 TOR 2385 6.82 8.58 Y-2 Vince Carter 2003 TOR 1471 4.12 8.40 Y-1 Vince Carter 2004 TOR 2785 5.75 6.20 Y NBA Live 2004 Vince Carter 2005 2TM 2828 9.23 9.79 Y+1 Vince Carter 2006 NJN 2906 9.19 9.49 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Carmelo Anthony 2003 -- 0 0.00 0.00 Y-2 Carmelo Anthony 2004 DEN 2995 6.32 6.33 Y-1 Carmelo Anthony 2005 DEN 2608 5.05 5.81 Y NBA Live 2005 Carmelo Anthony 2006 DEN 2941 9.70 9.90 Y+1 Carmelo Anthony 2007 DEN 2486 7.69 9.27 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Dwyane Wade 2004 MIA 2126 4.45 6.28 Y-2 Dwyane Wade 2005 MIA 2974 10.94 11.04 Y-1 Dwyane Wade 2006 MIA 2892 14.55 15.10 Y NBA Live 06 Dwyane Wade 2007 MIA 1931 8.61 13.37 Y+1 Dwyane Wade 2008 MIA 1954 3.24 4.98 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Tracy McGrady 2005 HOU 3182 11.67 11.00 Y-2 Tracy McGrady 2006 HOU 1745 3.96 6.80 Y-1 Tracy McGrady 2007 HOU 2539 8.50 10.04 Y NBA Live 07 Tracy McGrady 2008 HOU 2440 5.72 7.03 Y+1 Tracy McGrady 2009 HOU 2718 8.20 9.05 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Gilbert Arenas 2006 WAS 3384 13.89 12.31 Y-2 Gilbert Arenas 2007 WAS 2942 11.09 11.31 Y-1 Gilbert Arenas 2008 WAS 425 0.60 4.22 Y NBA Live 08 Gilbert Arenas 2009 WAS 0 0.00 0.00 Y+1 Gilbert Arenas 2010 -- 0 0.00 0.00 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Player Year Tm Min WS WS/3K Live Yr Live Version +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+ Tony Parker 2007 SAS 2499 9.41 11.30 Y-2 Tony Parker 2008 SAS 2312 6.74 8.75 Y-1 Tony Parker 2009 SAS 1128 5.47 14.55 Y NBA Live 09 Tony Parker 2010 -- 0 0.00 0.00 Y+1 Tony Parker 2011 -- 0 0.00 0.00 Y+2 +--------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+--------+------------------+
It should be noted that technically, the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is also a member of the Live cover lineage, having appeared on the box for the PC version of Lakers vs. Celtics in 1989 -- but he retired before the 1990 season, so it's pointless to include him in this study. Another note: for current players, we've taken their '09 stats so far and pro-rated them to 82 team games.
Anyway, the simplest way to look for a curse is to compare performance in the year before the cover season (Y-1) to the cover season itself (Y). We'll do this using both aggregate Win Shares and average WS/3K:
Year #Plyrs WS WS/3K* Y-1 21 189.7 9.75 Y 21 175.1 9.54 *=Average of individual WS/3K, unweighted by min
There's certainly a pattern of decline in one's "cover season", though it's hardly earth-shattering; 9 of the 21 players in the sample had more WS when they were on Live's cover, and 10 of them improved their WS/3K rate in year Y.
What happens if we add the year after the cover season to the study? Since 2009-10 hasn't happened yet, we'll have to throw 09 cover man Tony Parker out of the dataset, leaving us with 20 players in the sample:
Year #Plyrs WS WS/3K Y-1 20 182.91 9.80 Y 20 169.65 9.29 Y+1 20 156.95 8.81
We can definitely see a multi-year drop-off from one's pre-Live form: on average, a player loses a full Win Share per 3000 minutes from the season directly before his cover appearance to the season directly after. However, I've found that true "Madden Curse" devotees will dispute the relevance of Y+1, as they believe the only season that's actually cursed is the one during which the player appears on the game box. Your interpretation of the curse's more arcane rules may differ, though.
Anyway, what happens if we extend the study to include seasons 2 years before and after the Live appearance?
Year #Plyrs WS WS/3K Y-2 18 149.24 8.96 Y-1 18 165.50 9.91 Y 18 164.00 9.77 Y+1 18 147.25 9.24 Y+2 18 144.99 9.30
So, more evidence of a curse, or what? Well, in the aggregate, players did give back all of their pre-Live Win Shares in the 2 seasons following their cover season... but on a per-minute basis they were still more productive 2 years after the appearance than they were 2 years before. That, and the fact that these fractional differences in WS/3K are negligible at best, means we can probably evoke what Doug wrote in his original "Madden Curse" post:
And then there is regression to the mean. In order to get on the cover of Madden, you have to turn in one of the best performances of the year. In almost all cases, that requires a bit of luck. The next year, you’re still good, but there is no reason to expect the luck to be there. The league’s best performers in any category will always decline, as a group... Curses happen.
In other words, things seek their own equilibrium, and if a player had an abnormally good and/or lucky season one year (even lucky in the sense of avoiding injuries), he will likely see some of that production and durability disappear during the next season, even if he does everything the same (trains the same, takes the same vitamins, goes through the same bizarre series of rituals a la Kevin Garnett, etc.) as the previous year.
The official verdict, then? There is no such thing as an "NBA Live Curse". Or, failing that, there's at least less evidence of its existence than there is of the Madden Curse, Chunky Soup Curse, or the SI Cover Jinx -- and all of those hexes have been debunked as the dual products of the regressive fallacy and some very overactive, superstitious imaginations. Gilbert Arenas and Tony Parker may disagree, but the same goes for any supposed curse attached to EA Sports' flagship basketball franchise as well. Regression to the mean is real and it's inevitable, but we shouldn't mistake it for some kind of supernatural phenomenon.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Regression to the mean. Player does really well one year, is picked for the cover, then performance goes goes back to the mean.
January 12th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Couldn't it just be that these players are peaking at the times that they're getting put on the covers?
Consider these players' numbers during Y-4 and Y+4...
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:03 am
I don't like that "regression toward the mean" bit in the end. I mean, it's an argument perhaps for the Madden curse debate, but it doesn't apply here. In actuality, there is very little correlation between cover years and stat decline. That should have been the final point to drive home, not leaking into the Madden curse.