The Virtual 1980s Cleveland Cavaliers, Part II
Posted by Neil Paine on December 24, 2008
Okay, last time we established the ground rules and picked out the blunders we're going to wipe away from the history books forever. Now it's time to put the method to the test, starting with...
1979-80
Actual record: 37-45
Actual points scored: 9360
Actual points allowed: 9332
Actual pythagorean record: 42-40
Not a whole lot to change here, just the Butch Lee-Don Ford swap for the time being... I split Ford's minutes up evenly amongst Cleveland's forwards.
Player Ag Ht Pos Min ORtg %Pos DRtg ---------------+----+------+--------+--------+--------+------+------- Mike Mitchell 24 79 F 2947 111.8 23.0 106.8 Randy Smith 31 75 G 2677 103.2 23.1 108.2 Dave Robisch 30 82 C 2670 118.7 17.6 106.8 Foots Walker 28 72 G 2422 113.1 15.3 105.7 Kenny Carr 24 79 F 1873 103.6 21.5 103.3 Austin Carr 31 76 G 1595 102.8 23.4 110.5 Bill Willoughby 22 80 F 1522 109.0 15.4 106.2 Campy Russell 28 80 F 1400 99.3 25.4 105.4 John Lambert 27 82 C 1324 99.9 15.0 104.8 Willie Smith 26 74 G 1051 97.1 17.8 105.9 Earl Tatum 26 77 G 225 87.2 19.8 104.9 Bingo Smith 33 77 F 142 96.8 21.7 108.9 Butch Lee 23 72 G 55 74.8 29.0 109.7 Walt Frazier 34 76 G 27 87.5 24.8 103.9
The result? 9350 points scored, 9343 points allowed, and a pythagorean record of 41-41. So Ford actually helped the Cavs by about 1 win in his 419-minute stint with Cleveland, but that's not really the point of reversing this trade anyway (the point is to keep a 1st-round pick in the 1982 draft).
1980-81
Actual record: 28-54
Actual points scored: 8670
Actual points allowed: 9068
Actual pythagorean record: 29-53
Now, once again, we're erasing the trades that brought in Mike Bratz, Richard Washington, Jerome Whitehead, and Geoff Huston, and we're retaining Bill Robinzine (Butch Lee was out of the league at this point). And again, I split the lost guards, forwards, and center's minutes evenly by position amongst the remaining players -- but I capped players' MPG at their career-highs to avoid certain players playing ludicrous amounts of minutes, so I had to add a hypothetical "replacement-level" player to Cleveland's roster to make up for the extra minutes.
Player Ag Ht Pos Min ORtg %Pos DRtg ---------------+----+------+--------+--------+--------+------+------- Mike Mitchell 25 79 F 3198 108.2 23.9 111.2 Randy Smith 32 75 G 3116 104.3 23.6 109.3 Kenny Carr 25 79 F 2800 107.7 20.1 106.0 Replacements -- -- -- 2597 94.8 15.4 108.6 Bill Laimbeer 23 83 C 2466 112.3 14.6 107.4 Roger Phegley 24 78 G 2271 107.9 20.4 111.3 Bill Robinzine 29 80 F 2159 100.6 22.2 107.7 Dave Robisch 31 82 C 373 107.8 14.0 109.2 Kim Hughes 28 83 C 332 68.4 10.8 104.0 Walter Jordan 24 79 F 222 87.5 18.8 107.3 Mack Calvin 33 72 G 206 93.6 23.0 110.3 Robert Smith 25 71 G 32 99.8 20.5 112.7 John Lambert 28 82 C 8 104.7 38.6 108.0
This team scores 8699 points and allows 9040, for a pythagorean record of 30-52, which doesn't really represent a change from the real-life version. That's because we improved the defense by never acquiring Bratz ('81 DRtg: 109.7) or Ford (111.7), and held the offense steady by giving more minutes to Carr and Smith. 30-52 still isn't good, mind you, but at least this team got there without having to relinquish 5 first-round picks.
1981-82
Actual record: 15-67
Actual points scored: 8463
Actual points allowed: 9161
Actual pythagorean record: 20-62
OK, so this time around we're not sending Laimbeer and Carr to Detroit, in addition to all the other moves we haven't made. And remember, we also retain our 1st-round pick following the season.
Player Ag Ht Pos Min ORtg %Pos DRtg ---------------+----+------+--------+--------+--------+------+------- Bob Wilkerson 27 78 G 2509 96.9 20.0 110.3 Ron Brewer 26 76 G 2396 103.5 21.6 114.1 James Edwards 26 84 C 2209 108.1 20.6 111.3 James Silas 32 73 G 2011 110.0 22.3 114.5 Kenny Carr 26 79 F 1968 104.3 19.8 108.4 Scott Wedman 29 79 F 1673 103.2 17.1 111.0 Bill Laimbeer 24 83 C 1592 113.3 16.9 106.9 Mike Mitchell 26 79 F 994 100.7 23.2 113.6 Cliff Robinson 21 81 F 966 103.0 22.9 106.3 Roger Phegley 25 78 G 787 107.7 18.6 113.8 Bill Robinzine 29 79 F 665 92.3 24.5 109.2 Reggie Johnson 24 81 F 630 115.6 13.9 112.8 Keith Herron 25 78 G 374 87.9 17.3 114.7 Kevin Restani 30 81 F 345 92.9 10.2 111.0 Mickey Dillard 23 75 G 307 88.5 19.6 113.8 Brad Branson 23 82 C 153 91.4 16.0 112.0 Mike Evans 26 73 G 103 76.9 28.2 110.4 Lowes Moore 24 73 G 97 113.2 26.5 108.6 Mel Bennett 27 79 F 23 49.0 19.4 112.2
These virtual Cavs have a pythagorean record of 22-60 (8484 PF, 9111 PA), which is terrible and only a marginal improvement over the real-life version, but there is good news... That pythagorean mark is still the worst in the league, so our Cavs will have the #1 overall pick in the draft (unlike in real life, where they traded it away back in 1980). So the spoils of this awful season? James Worthy, plus more picks on the way.
1982-83
Actual record: 23-59
Actual points scored: 7964
Actual points allowed: 8574
Actual pythagorean record: 22-60
Up to this point, our virtual Cavaliers haven't exactly been significantly better than the real thing, despite wiping away a number of really dumb transactions. On the other hand, almost all of those trades involved sending out future 1st-round draft choices in exchange for lousy veterans, and this season is the first one in which we'll see the fruits of hanging on to those picks instead, as James Worthy joins Cleveland for his rookie season. We also nixed the preseason trade which sent a 1986 2nd-rounder to Detroit for Steve Hayes. Now it's time to see how we fared in 1982-83...
Player Ag Ht Pos Min ORtg %Pos DRtg ---------------+----+------+--------+--------+--------+------+------- Bill Laimbeer 25 83 C 2871 113.0 16.6 102.9 Bob Wilkerson 28 78 G 2618 87.6 18.2 106.6 Cliff Robinson 22 81 F 2601 99.5 24.5 103.2 Kenny Carr 27 79 F 2331 105.2 18.4 103.4 James Worthy 21 81 F 1970 108.7 20.2 104.5 World B. Free 29 74 G 1938 106.3 28.9 108.3 Scott Wedman 30 79 F 1290 101.1 21.9 108.7 Bruce Flowers 25 80 F 936 111.7 16.8 105.9 Larry Kenon 30 81 F 835 101.9 18.0 107.1 Jeff Cook 26 82 F 782 107.7 13.4 104.6 Ron Brewer 27 76 G 563 95.5 19.7 108.7 Sam Lacey 34 82 C 483 85.9 13.7 106.6 Carl Nicks 24 73 G 198 95.3 21.2 106.5 Darren Tillis 22 83 C 189 98.5 15.5 104.3 James Edwards 27 84 C 150 101.2 22.0 105.8
With an established forward like Jamaal Wilkes in front of him, the Lakers had the luxury of bringing Worthy off the bench as a rookie; on a team like this Cavs squad, it's hard to assume that the same thing would happen. Still, we'll have to play by the rules, stick to the real minutes, and let Worthy come in as a reserve behind Robinson and Carr. At any rate, this Cavs team scores 8250 and allows 8455 for a pythagorean record of 34-48, a significant improvement over the real version, and they still have all of their 1st-round picks intact.
1983-84
Actual record: 28-54
Actual points scored: 8386
Actual points allowed: 8735
Actual pythagorean record: 30-52
By holding on to the 11th pick in the draft, the Cavs are able to select Derek Harper from Illinois, and now they've got a pretty decent nucleus with James Worthy, Bill Laimbeer, World B. Free, Kenny Carr, and company...
Player Ag Ht Pos Min ORtg %Pos DRtg ---------------+----+------+--------+--------+--------+------+------- Bill Laimbeer 26 83 C 2864 122.5 18.2 106.1 Kenny Carr 28 79 F 2455 112.4 20.8 107.3 James Worthy 22 81 F 2415 112.6 19.2 106.8 Cliff Robinson 23 81 F 2402 99.5 25.3 106.0 World B. Free 30 74 G 2375 107.9 29.2 110.5 Paul Thompson 22 78 G 1731 109.3 18.6 107.8 Lonnie Shelton 28 80 F 1240 99.0 19.9 107.8 Jeff Cook 27 82 F 1151 108.9 12.3 106.7 Roy Hinson 22 81 F 1097 99.5 12.7 105.4 Derek Harper 22 76 G 1011 97.4 15.5 108.9 Ben Poquette 28 81 F 507 106.9 11.0 107.6 Stewart Granger 22 75 G 436 99.4 18.5 111.0 John Garris 24 80 F 158 119.3 19.7 107.3 Geoff Crompton 28 83 C 14 61.2 28.8 105.7
Well, now we have something! While the real-life Cavs languished (again), our virtual '84 Cleveland team scored 8731 points and allowed 8630, good for 44 pythagorean wins, which would be enough to secure 3rd in the Central Division and earn them a playoff spot. They would probably lose to the Bucks in the 1st round, but that's a lot better than what happened in reality, and with an '84 1st-rounder intact they have the potential to be even better in the future.
Next time, we'll finish by looking at how the virtual Cavs performed in the 2nd half of the decade...
December 29th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Two things to keep in mind: First, if the Cavaliers were better than they actually were in real life, their draft picks would have been lower, and they may not have realistically been able to get some of the players selected with their original draft positions. This is alluded to in the article with regard to the '82 team still having the worst record in the league and thus still being in position to get James Worthy. For '83 it doesn't matter, as the pick Cleveland traded to Dallas that year -- which ended up being Derek Harper -- wasn't actually their own (they had traded their own pick away years earlier, before Stepien was even on the scene). I'm not sure how you're going to handle this for future years. Unrealistic as it is, it may be simplest to assume that Cleveland was somehow able to get the same players chosen with their real-life draft positions, on grounds that figuring out which players they likely would have actually drafted is just too speculative.
Second, because Stepien had traded away so many picks, the Cavaliers' new owners were allowed to buy a bonus first round pick in the 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1986 drafts -- note that there 24 first round picks in those years, even though there were only 23 teams. The '83 pick was tacked onto the end of the round (#24), the '84 pick was in the exact middle of the round (#12), and the '85 and '86 picks were slotted immediately after the position of the Cavs' original picks (#9 and #8[*]). The Cavaliers used these picks to select Stewart Granger, Tim McCormick (rights traded on draft day in deal in which rights to Mel Turpin were acquired instead), Charles Oakley, and Ron Harper. Absent Stepien's pillaging of the franchise's future draft picks, Cleveland never would have had access to these picks, and probably would not have been able to get any of these players. At the very least, even if we're suspending disbelief and assuming that Cleveland was somehow able to get the same players they got with their real-life draft positions, they could have gotten either the players taken with their own pick or the player taken with the bonus pick, but not both (e.g., Tarpley or Harper in '86, but not both of them).
Note that the above issues don't impact every first round pick during this period. As already noted, the Cavaliers theoretically should have been able to get James Worthy and Derek Harper even with the changes to history that you've made. Roy Hinson and Brad Daugherty were likewise selected with picks acquired in trades which don't appear to be dependent on anything that's been changed.
[*]A side note: The draft lottery was started in 1985. Cleveland made the playoffs that year -- just barely -- but they were in the lottery in '86. Their original '86 pick, which they had traded to Dallas, ended up being the final pick of the lottery, so they had the next pick after the lottery. I'm not sure how things would have been handled had Cleveland's original pick ended up higher in the lottery in either of those years. In other words, did Cleveland pick immediately after the lottery in '86 because that happened to be one slot after their pick, or were they locked into that position no matter how high their pick ended up? If the pick had ended up #1, would they have picked #2, or still #8? I don't know the answer to this.
June 10th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
cool picsxxx