NBA Finals Preview: Miami vs. Dallas
Posted by Neil Paine on May 28, 2011
Miami Heat
58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)
PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)
Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)
Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Dallas Mavericks
Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-1) versus Boston Celtics
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Philadelphia 76ers
| Pos | Roster | G | MP | poMPG | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Bibby | 95 | 2613 | 21.9 | -1.26 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 0.068 |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 91 | 3418 | 39.6 | 6.44 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 25.4 | 0.214 |
| SF | LeBron James | 94 | 3723 | 44.0 | 8.63 | 4.1 | 10.2 | 27.2 | 0.246 |
| PF | Chris Bosh | 92 | 3393 | 39.9 | 2.08 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 19.5 | 0.180 |
| C | Joel Anthony | 90 | 1914 | 30.1 | -3.53 | 1.0 | -2.2 | 7.5 | 0.105 |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 85 | 1915 | 22.5 | 0.85 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 10.2 | 0.089 |
| SF | James Jones | 93 | 1821 | 22.7 | -0.12 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 0.148 |
| SG | Mike Miller | 53 | 959 | 10.1 | -1.02 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 9.6 | 0.088 |
| PF | Udonis Haslem | 19 | 459 | 19.0 | -1.70 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 11.0 | 0.098 |
| C | Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 81 | 1249 | 11.6 | -2.24 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 12.6 | 0.117 |
| PF | Juwan Howard | 63 | 623 | 5.2 | -5.49 | -1.1 | -2.6 | 8.3 | 0.075 |
| PG | Eddie House | 61 | 1001 | 4.6 | -1.08 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 11.3 | 0.097 |
| C | Jamaal Magloire | 21 | 176 | 6.0 | 1.26 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 12.5 | 0.168 |
| C | Erick Dampier | 51 | 815 | -3.02 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 9.7 | 0.109 | |
| C | Dexter Pittman | 2 | 11 | -17.51 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -6.4 | -0.246 | |
Dallas Mavericks
57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)
PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)
Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)
Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Miami Heat
Won NBA Western Conference Finals (4-1) versus Oklahoma City Thunder
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers
| Pos | Roster | G | MP | poMPG | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jason Kidd | 95 | 3173 | 34.7 | 4.25 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 15.0 | 0.122 |
| SG | DeShawn Stevenson | 87 | 1387 | 15.3 | -3.56 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 0.056 |
| SF | Shawn Marion | 95 | 2729 | 31.7 | -0.08 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 16.7 | 0.117 |
| PF | Dirk Nowitzki | 88 | 3088 | 38.9 | 4.98 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 24.1 | 0.219 |
| C | Tyson Chandler | 89 | 2515 | 30.4 | 2.54 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 17.7 | 0.212 |
| SG | Jason Terry | 97 | 3053 | 32.6 | 1.25 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 16.5 | 0.112 |
| SF | Peja Stojakovic | 48 | 941 | 21.6 | -0.16 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 14.5 | 0.114 |
| PG | Jose Barea | 96 | 1931 | 17.5 | -1.52 | 0.2 | -1.7 | 15.4 | 0.099 |
| C | Brendan Haywood | 87 | 1580 | 16.6 | -3.33 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 11.5 | 0.105 |
| SG | Corey Brewer | 75 | 1533 | 3.8 | -0.58 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 11.0 | 0.037 |
| PF | Brian Cardinal | 60 | 625 | 1.8 | 0.56 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 0.135 |
| C | Ian Mahinmi | 59 | 494 | 2.0 | 0.30 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 13.6 | 0.176 |
| PG | Rodrigue Beaubois | 28 | 496 | -0.83 | -1.7 | -1.6 | 11.4 | 0.022 | |
| SG | Dominique Jones | 18 | 135 | -6.28 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 10.6 | 0.007 | |
| SF | Caron Butler | 29 | 867 | -0.89 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 14.2 | 0.067 | |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | MIA | DAL | Prob | Games | MIA | DAL | Prob | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 22.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.5% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16.6% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 13.9% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16.2% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 10.4% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14.0% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.3% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13.5% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 9.8% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9.3% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 9.0% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.4% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.2% | |
| MIA | 66.1% | MIA | 39.4% | |||||
| DAL | 33.9% | DAL | 60.6% | |||||
(Player stats are combined regular-season + playoffs. 2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann.)
May 29th, 2011 at 5:37 am
Vegas seems to believe the full season rankings more than the post-deadline.
It's unfortunate for Dallas that Haslem got back just now. He's one more body they can throw at Nowitzki should Bosh get in foul trouble. Or maybe they start him and put Bosh on Chandler? Or LeBron on Nowitzki? That would be interesting to see
May 29th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
I think we're going to see LeBron on Dirk in short spurts, but not for entire games. LeBron has too many responsibilites on offense to be drained on Dirk, save for critical moments.
Should be fun!
May 30th, 2011 at 10:00 am
It's kind of interesting that in the year of blockbuster trades that two teams who didn't do any major moves are facing each others in the Finals. The Heat definitely didn't really need to make any moves based on their core, but the Mavs got lots of criticism for not making any moves at the trade deadline.
I also think it's interesting that the odds are almost flip-flopped for pre/post-deadline, especially since neither team really did alterations to their rosters. Should be a fun matchup!
May 30th, 2011 at 10:40 am
#3 Yeah apparently the Heat played much better against Chicago than they did the first two rounds. That is attributable to a few things: benching Z plus the return of Haslem, and the Celtics weren't quite as bad as their post-deadline numbers. Shorter rotations in the playoffs always helps them, although they were hurt. The Lakers were more gravely injured imo though.
May 31st, 2011 at 9:28 am
#3 It's not fair to say the Heat "didn't do any major moves" when they signed Lebron/Bosh in the offseason and just got Miller and Haslem back from injury. Thats 4 of their top 5 guys who entirely change the roster. I think I know what you mean concerning trades, but this is a team that made HUGE moves and is just now seeing what they're capable of.
May 31st, 2011 at 10:09 am
Oh, sorry for the confusion. I was referring to no major moves at the trade deadline. Of course they overhauled their roster in the offseason, but stayed with what they had at the deadline. If you look at the chances of winning, Dallas' % of winning goes up post-deadline even with no moves.
June 1st, 2011 at 9:14 am
Well we lost game one but no need to panic! see story.. http://mavsfansunite.com/?p=84
June 2nd, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Yeah it was nice to see the game 1 victory but the series is not over, it will be tough.