The Shape of a 7-Game Series
Posted by Neil Paine on June 16, 2010
As a follow-up to this morning's post about historical 7-game series, here are some notes about the "shape" of this year's Finals...
First, what I mean by "shape" is the pattern of wins and losses by the home team in the series. For instance, the 2010 Finals look like this:
WLLWWW
In other words, the home team won Game 1, lost Games 2 & 3, and then won Games 4, 5, & 6. How often has that happened through the first 6 games of a 7-game series?
10 other times in NBA history, including 4 other Finals:
| Year | Round | Series Winner | Series Loser | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952 | FIN | MNL | NYK | WLLWWW |
| 1960 | FIN | BOS | STL | WLLWWW |
| 1970 | EDS | NYK | BAL | WLLWWW |
| 1970 | FIN | NYK | LAL | WLLWWW |
| 1976 | WCF | PHO | GSW | WLLWWW |
| 1981 | ECS | PHI | MIL | WLLWWW |
| 1993 | WCF | PHO | SEA | WLLWWW |
| 1994 | FIN | HOU | NYK | WLLWWW |
| 2000 | ECS | NYK | MIA | WLLWWW |
| 2006 | WCS | PHO | LAC | WLLWWW |
| 2010 | FIN | ??? | ??? | WLLWWW |
That actually makes WLLWWW the most common shape for any Finals series! And they said this year's series had no discernible pattern.
The most commonly-shaped 7-game series in overall NBA playoff history is "WWWWWW" -- the home team winning each of the first 6 games, which has happened 24 times (but only twice in the Finals):
| Year | Round | Series Winner | Series Loser | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1955 | FIN | SYR | FTW | WWWWWW |
| 1959 | EDF | BOS | SYR | WWWWWW |
| 1962 | EDF | BOS | PHW | WWWWWW |
| 1963 | WDF | LAL | STL | WWWWWW |
| 1965 | EDF | BOS | PHI | WWWWWW |
| 1969 | FIN | BOS | LAL | WWWWWW |
| 1971 | ECF | BAL | NYK | WWWWWW |
| 1971 | WCS | LAL | CHI | WWWWWW |
| 1973 | WCS | LAL | CHI | WWWWWW |
| 1977 | WCS | LAL | GSW | WWWWWW |
| 1984 | ECS | BOS | NYK | WWWWWW |
| 1987 | ECF | BOS | DET | WWWWWW |
| 1988 | WCF | LAL | DAL | WWWWWW |
| 1990 | ECF | DET | CHI | WWWWWW |
| 1990 | WCS | POR | SAS | WWWWWW |
| 1993 | WCS | SEA | HOU | WWWWWW |
| 1994 | ECS | NYK | CHI | WWWWWW |
| 1995 | ECF | ORL | IND | WWWWWW |
| 1998 | ECF | CHI | IND | WWWWWW |
| 2004 | EC1 | MIA | NOH | WWWWWW |
| 2007 | WC1 | UTA | HOU | WWWWWW |
| 2008 | EC1 | BOS | ATL | WWWWWW |
| 2008 | ECS | BOS | CLE | WWWWWW |
| 2008 | WCS | SAS | NOH | WWWWWW |
The least common shape for a 7-game series are LWLLLW and WWLWWL, each of which has only happened once:
| Year | Round | Series Winner | Series Loser | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | FIN | BOS | LAL | LWLLLW |
| 1973 | ECF | NYK | BOS | WWLWWL |
In the Finals, there are plenty of combinations that never get used, so much so that it's easier to list which ones have occurred in the championship round than the ones that haven't:
| Shape | Count |
|---|---|
| WLLWWW | 5 |
| LWWLWW | 2 |
| WWWWWW | 2 |
| LWLLLW | 1 |
| WWLLWW | 1 |
| WLLWLL | 1 |
| WWLWLW | 1 |
| WLWLLL | 1 |
| LWWLLL | 1 |
| WWWWLL | 1 |
| LWLWWW | 1 |
One thing that all of these different shapes have in common, though, is that the home team usually wins Game 7... And that's bad news for the Boston Celtics tomorrow night.
June 16th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
Funny, in one of your earlier blog posts, I think you determined that this year's Finals would be highly similar to the Rockets-Knicks series, and look at that...
June 17th, 2010 at 1:18 am
Interesting. Of the ten previous series with the same shape as this one through 6 games, the road team (i.e., the Celtics tonight) won game 7 twice -- Phoenix in 1976 and the Knicks in 2000. However, it seems to me that analogizing the shape of a 2-3-2 series to that of a 2-2-1-1-1 series is a little questionable.
June 17th, 2010 at 4:50 am
Neil,
In 2008 SAS won game 7 against NOH on the road so this would be a WWWWWWL, not a WWWWWWW
June 17th, 2010 at 4:54 am
I remember this series very well because the Spurs had been blown off at NO in game 1, 2 & 5, and somehow they found a way to win game 7 on the road which is, as you point out, very rare.
Both teams went 56-26 in the regular season, so I guess this might explain why you had it the wrong way.
June 17th, 2010 at 8:28 am
Hi Romain,
Actually, I'm just looking at the first 6 games of the series (which is all we have to go on for this year's Finals). It is true that the away team won Game 7 of that series after losing the first 6, though.
June 17th, 2010 at 9:02 am
You're right I read your post too fast!
My mistake, sorry