You Are Here > Basketball-Reference.com > Frivolities > Playoff Probabilities Report

Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L W-L% Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 62.3 19.7 .760 41-11 21-9 70-12 54-28 100.0% 100.0% 96.8% 44.0% 27.7% 0.0%
2 Orlando Magic 54.8 27.2 .669 35-17 20-10 64-18 45-37 100.0% 59.6% 1.9% 19.2% 9.3% 0.0%
3 Atlanta Hawks 54.0 28.0 .658 32-17 22-11 62-20 44-38 100.0% 40.4% 1.0% 18.8% 9.7% 0.0%
4 Boston Celtics 52.8 29.2 .644 32-17 21-12 61-21 45-37 100.0% 99.2% 0.3% 15.2% 8.0% 0.0%
5 Toronto Raptors 43.6 38.4 .531 28-23 16-15 53-29 35-47 96.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
6 Charlotte Bobcats 43.2 38.8 .527 24-25 19-14 51-31 34-48 93.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
7 Miami Heat 41.8 40.2 .509 24-27 18-13 50-32 34-48 83.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
8 Milwaukee Bucks 40.2 41.8 .490 23-26 17-16 48-34 30-52 73.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
   
9 Chicago Bulls 39.0 43.0 .476 24-25 15-18 48-34 31-51 51.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
10 Philadelphia 76ers 32.0 50.0 .391 19-31 13-19 44-38 23-59 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4%
11 New York Knickerbockers 32.0 50.1 .390 19-31 13-19 41-41 23-59 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%
12 Washington Wizards 29.1 52.9 .355 17-32 12-21 38-44 20-62 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8%
13 Indiana Pacers 28.2 53.8 .344 18-33 10-21 37-45 21-61 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2%
14 Detroit Pistons 28.0 54.0 .342 17-32 11-22 36-46 21-61 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2%
15 New Jersey Nets 9.6 72.4 .117 4-46 6-26 17-65 4-78 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.3%
Rk Western Conference W L W-L% Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Los Angeles Lakers 59.3 22.7 .723 40-13 19-10 66-16 52-30 100.0% 99.7% 92.4% 37.1% 20.6% 0.0%
2 Denver Nuggets 53.0 29.0 .646 34-17 19-12 60-22 44-38 99.7% 48.0% 3.3% 14.6% 5.4% 0.0%
3 Utah Jazz 52.9 29.1 .645 31-18 22-11 61-21 44-38 99.4% 46.6% 3.7% 20.8% 10.3% 0.0%
4 Dallas Mavericks 50.5 31.5 .616 32-19 19-12 59-23 43-39 98.8% 69.0% 0.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.0%
5 Phoenix Suns 48.6 33.4 .593 31-21 18-12 56-26 41-41 94.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0%
6 San Antonio Spurs 48.2 33.8 .588 29-21 19-13 56-26 39-43 89.8% 27.1% 0.0% 10.6% 3.8% 0.2%
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 48.1 33.9 .587 29-21 19-13 56-26 40-42 84.9% 3.6% 0.0% 5.2% 1.6% 0.0%
8 Portland Trail Blazers 47.4 34.6 .578 30-23 17-12 57-25 36-46 79.9% 1.8% 0.1% 3.9% 0.7% 0.0%
   
9 Houston Rockets 44.6 37.4 .544 27-23 18-14 52-30 36-46 41.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4%
10 Memphis Grizzlies 41.5 40.5 .507 26-24 16-16 51-31 31-51 8.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
11 New Orleans Hornets 39.6 42.4 .483 27-25 13-17 47-35 33-49 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
12 Los Angeles Clippers 32.7 49.3 .398 21-29 12-20 41-41 25-57 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%
13 Sacramento Kings 28.6 53.4 .349 16-34 13-19 39-43 20-62 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5%
14 Golden State Warriors 24.3 57.7 .296 13-37 11-21 32-50 17-65 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3%
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 19.9 62.1 .243 13-38 7-24 28-54 14-68 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0%