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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 1500 simulations of the remainder of season.

Teams are sorted by their average conference rank in the simulations, so occasionally a team with a worse average W-L record will be ranked ahead of a team with a better average W-L record. See more details about the results.

We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Rk Eastern Conference W L W/L% SOS SRS Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Atlanta Hawks 61.8 20.2 .753 -0.49 4.93 55-17 7-3 65-17 56-26 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40.3% 13.7%
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 52.7 29.3 .642 -0.31 4.56 47-27 6-2 55-27 49-33 100.0% 95.9% 33.6% 10.0%
3 Chicago Bulls 49.5 32.5 .603 -0.22 2.10 44-29 5-4 53-29 45-37 100.0% 4.1% 9.4% 1.9%
4 Toronto Raptors 48.6 33.4 .593 -0.40 2.55 43-30 6-3 52-30 44-38 100.0% 100.0% 10.9% 2.5%
5 Washington Wizards 45.8 36.2 .559 -0.42 0.11 41-32 5-4 50-32 41-41 100.0% 2.5% 0.3%
6 Milwaukee Bucks 41.4 40.6 .505 -0.49 -0.15 36-36 5-5 46-36 36-46 99.8% 1.6%
7 Miami Heat 37.8 44.2 .461 -0.32 -2.51 33-39 5-5 42-40 33-49 80.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3%
8 Indiana Pacers 36.1 45.9 .440 -0.41 -0.82 31-41 5-5 41-41 31-51 36.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
9 Boston Celtics 36.1 45.9 .440 -0.82 -1.59 32-40 4-6 41-41 32-50 35.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
10 Brooklyn Nets 36.0 46.0 .439 -0.26 -3.52 31-40 5-6 40-42 31-51 34.3% 0.1% 1.2%
11 Charlotte Hornets 34.6 47.4 .422 -0.41 -2.77 30-41 5-6 40-42 30-52 11.9% 0.1% 1.5%
12 Detroit Pistons 33.0 49.0 .402 -0.30 -1.57 28-44 5-5 37-45 28-54 1.5% 2.0%
13 Orlando Magic 25.0 57.0 .305 0.00 -6.17 22-52 3-5 29-53 22-60 8.7%
14 Philadelphia 76ers 20.6 61.4 .251 0.06 -8.97 18-55 3-6 25-57 18-64 17.4%
15 New York Knicks 16.7 65.3 .204 -0.05 -9.45 14-59 3-6 21-61 14-68 24.3%

Rk Western Conference W L W/L% SOS SRS Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Golden State Warriors 66.2 15.8 .807 -0.28 10.61 59-13 7-3 69-13 62-20 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 58.6% 48.5%
2 Memphis Grizzlies 54.8 27.2 .669 0.14 3.29 50-23 5-4 59-23 51-31 100.0% 58.3% 3.5% 1.5%
3 Houston Rockets 54.4 27.6 .663 0.26 3.50 49-23 5-5 59-23 49-33 100.0% 41.7% 5.4% 2.5%
4 Portland Trail Blazers 52.8 29.2 .643 0.15 4.54 46-25 7-4 57-25 48-34 100.0% 99.9% 4.3% 2.2%
5 Los Angeles Clippers 54.0 28.0 .658 0.27 6.47 48-25 6-3 57-25 49-33 100.0% 13.5% 9.3%
6 San Antonio Spurs 52.0 30.0 .635 0.06 5.25 46-26 6-4 56-26 47-35 100.0% 9.7% 5.3%
7 Dallas Mavericks 50.0 32.0 .609 0.35 3.67 45-28 5-4 54-28 46-36 99.9% 3.7% 1.3%
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 46.5 35.5 .567 0.22 2.65 41-31 5-5 51-31 41-41 94.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7%
9 New Orleans Pelicans 42.9 39.1 .523 0.36 0.82 38-34 5-5 47-35 38-44 4.7% 0.6%
10 Phoenix Suns 41.3 40.7 .504 0.06 0.50 38-35 3-6 47-35 38-44 1.1% 0.4%
11 Utah Jazz 35.9 46.1 .438 0.59 0.13 31-41 5-5 41-41 31-51 1.1%
12 Denver Nuggets 31.0 51.0 .378 0.16 -3.13 28-45 3-6 35-47 28-54 4.2%
13 Sacramento Kings 30.3 51.7 .370 0.88 -2.95 26-46 4-6 36-46 26-56 5.5%
14 Los Angeles Lakers 23.3 58.7 .284 0.87 -4.96 19-52 4-7 28-54 19-63 11.5%
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 19.1 62.9 .232 0.78 -7.10 16-56 3-7 24-58 16-66 19.8%