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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L W-L% Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Chicago Bulls 47.3 18.7 .717 21-6 26-13 57-9 38-28 100.0% 94.5% 47.9% 29.7% 19.9%
2 Miami Heat 45.8 20.2 .694 19-6 27-14 53-13 35-31 100.0% 88.0% 25.2% 25.8% 17.9%
3 Philadelphia 76ers 45.5 20.5 .690 18-7 28-13 55-11 36-30 100.0% 98.7% 24.7% 32.2% 20.9%
4 Atlanta Hawks 40.7 25.3 .616 16-9 25-16 50-16 31-35 100.0% 11.5% 0.4% 5.9% 3.1%
5 Indiana Pacers 40.6 25.4 .616 17-7 24-18 50-16 31-35 99.8% 5.5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.6%
6 Boston Celtics 35.3 30.7 .535 14-10 21-21 45-21 26-40 95.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
7 Orlando Magic 34.8 31.2 .527 15-10 20-21 44-22 25-41 95.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2%
8 Milwaukee Bucks 31.7 34.3 .481 10-14 22-20 41-25 23-43 67.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5%
   
9 New York Knicks 28.7 37.3 .435 10-15 19-22 37-29 20-46 27.4% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0%
10 Cleveland Cavaliers 27.2 38.8 .412 9-14 18-25 36-30 18-48 10.9% 3.3%
11 Toronto Raptors 24.0 42.0 .364 8-18 16-24 32-34 16-50 1.7% 6.4%
12 New Jersey Nets 23.4 42.6 .355 8-18 15-25 33-33 16-50 1.3% 7.7%
13 Detroit Pistons 20.2 45.8 .307 6-20 14-26 28-38 12-54 12.1%
14 Washington Wizards 18.1 47.9 .274 5-20 13-28 27-39 10-56 16.3%
15 Charlotte Bobcats 13.2 52.8 .201 3-22 10-31 25-41 6-60 23.9%
Rk Western Conference W L W-L% Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Oklahoma City Thunder 44.2 21.8 .670 20-5 24-17 53-13 35-31 99.3% 81.6% 57.6% 19.3% 7.6%
2 San Antonio Spurs 41.8 24.2 .633 17-9 25-15 51-15 33-33 98.9% 84.0% 20.4% 22.0% 8.9%
3 Los Angeles Clippers 40.0 26.0 .606 15-7 25-19 50-16 30-36 99.7% 74.2% 9.3% 9.7% 2.6%
4 Denver Nuggets 39.6 26.4 .600 15-10 25-16 49-17 32-34 87.8% 11.4% 7.1% 14.6% 5.1% 0.1%
5 Portland Trail Blazers 38.3 27.7 .580 14-11 24-17 50-16 27-39 76.3% 6.0% 3.0% 14.8% 6.3%
6 Los Angeles Lakers 37.1 28.9 .562 14-11 23-18 47-19 25-41 96.5% 25.3% 1.1% 8.3% 2.7% 0.1%
7 Dallas Mavericks 35.9 30.1 .544 14-11 22-19 46-20 27-39 73.0% 6.8% 1.1% 5.0% 1.2% 0.1%
8 Houston Rockets 35.6 30.4 .539 14-11 22-19 46-20 27-39 68.8% 5.8% 0.1% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1%
   
9 Memphis Grizzlies 34.7 31.3 .526 12-13 23-18 44-22 24-42 55.9% 3.4% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
10 Minnesota Timberwolves 34.2 31.8 .518 13-12 21-20 45-21 25-41 19.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4%
11 Utah Jazz 33.7 32.3 .510 13-11 21-21 42-24 25-41 16.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
12 Phoenix Suns 28.1 37.9 .426 11-14 17-24 39-27 19-47 5.3% 0.4% 2.2%
13 Golden State Warriors 26.3 39.7 .398 8-14 18-26 37-29 18-48 2.0% 0.1% 3.0%
14 Sacramento Kings 23.5 42.5 .355 9-16 14-27 34-32 16-50 0.2% 9.5%
15 New Orleans Hornets 20.5 45.5 .310 4-21 16-25 30-36 12-54 10.8%