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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 7500 simulations of the remainder of season.

Teams are sorted by their average conference rank in the simulations, so occasionally a team with a worse average W-L record will be ranked ahead of a team with a better average W-L record. See more details about the results.

We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

RkEastern ConferenceWLW/L%SOSSRSCurrentRemainBestWorstPlayoffsDivisionTop SeedWin ConfWin FinalsWin Lottery
1Cleveland Cavaliers57.324.7.699-0.395.4937-1420-1166-1648-34100.0%99.9%81.4%35.7%6.9%
2Toronto Raptors53.928.1.658-0.614.0235-1619-1263-1944-38100.0%92.4%18.2%21.9%3.0%
3Boston Celtics48.633.4.592-0.503.7931-2218-1157-2538-4499.7%7.6%0.4%17.4%2.3%
4Atlanta Hawks44.937.1.548-0.541.8430-2415-1354-2836-4691.6%51.3%6.1%0.5%
5Indiana Pacers45.336.7.552-0.092.6328-2417-1354-2837-4593.1%0.1%8.9%0.9%0.1%
6Miami Heat44.038.0.537-0.11-0.0729-2315-1554-2836-4685.3%33.1%2.0%0.1%0.1%
7Detroit Pistons43.039.0.525-0.031.0127-2616-1352-3034-4874.5%3.3%0.3%0.2%
8Chicago Bulls42.939.1.5230.14-0.1227-2416-1552-3034-4872.1%1.8%0.1%0.3%
9Charlotte Hornets42.439.6.5170.230.9626-2616-1451-3132-5067.2%14.5%2.7%0.1%0.2%
10Washington Wizards37.544.5.4570.83-1.8922-2715-1847-3527-557.9%0.7%0.1%1.1%
11Orlando Magic37.444.6.456-0.13-1.5223-2814-1747-3528-547.0%0.4%0.1%1.3%
12New York Knicks35.846.2.4360.15-2.0023-3113-1545-3726-561.6%1.7%
13Milwaukee Bucks32.249.8.3930.37-4.6920-3212-1841-4123-590.1%5.0%
14Brooklyn Nets23.958.1.2910.83-6.2514-3910-1933-4916-6613.3%
15Philadelphia 76ers16.165.9.1960.60-9.738-448-2225-579-7323.6%

RkWestern ConferenceWLW/L%SOSSRSCurrentRemainBestWorstPlayoffsDivisionTop SeedWin ConfWin FinalsWin Lottery
1Golden State Warriors70.211.8.856-0.8711.7146-424-877-560-22100.0%100.0%89.4%48.0%42.1%
2San Antonio Spurs65.816.2.803-1.3212.0843-823-873-956-26100.0%100.0%10.6%44.3%39.2%
3Oklahoma City Thunder56.625.4.691-1.166.7239-1418-1165-1747-35100.0%100.0%5.7%3.8%
4Los Angeles Clippers52.129.9.636-0.653.4735-1717-1361-2143-39100.0%1.5%0.7%
5Memphis Grizzlies44.038.0.5370.22-1.0730-2214-1653-2934-4897.0%
6Dallas Mavericks42.239.8.5150.12-0.7429-2513-1552-3034-4889.1%0.1%0.1%
7Utah Jazz41.640.4.5070.011.4725-2517-1552-3032-5083.9%0.3%0.1%0.1%
8Houston Rockets39.742.3.4840.09-1.2727-2613-1650-3231-5160.0%0.4%
9Portland Trail Blazers39.642.4.483-0.41-0.0926-2714-1550-3231-5158.8%0.1%0.3%
10Sacramento Kings35.047.0.4270.47-1.6921-3114-1647-3524-586.4%2.3%
11Denver Nuggets34.447.6.4190.86-2.3521-3213-1643-3925-573.6%2.7%
12New Orleans Pelicans32.949.1.4010.33-2.3219-3214-1744-3823-591.2%3.8%
13Minnesota Timberwolves27.254.8.3320.01-3.7916-3711-1837-4519-6310.7%
14Phoenix Suns24.557.5.2990.74-5.4914-3911-1835-4716-6612.4%
15Los Angeles Lakers19.063.0.2320.82-8.8111-438-2029-5311-7120.3%