Playoff Probabilities Report


The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 7500 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Sample Report

Projected Standings Table
  First Round Seed Pre Play-In  
Rk Eastern Conference W L W/L% SOS rSOS SRS Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8   1-6 7 8 9 10 Out   Win Conf Win Finals
1Cleveland Cavaliers51.031.0.6220.10-0.854.7131-2020-1161-2140-4299.6%70.8%44.623.814.
2Miami Heat50.531.5.616-0.42-0.083.4432-1919-1259-2341-4199.3%97.1%31.129.918.
3Chicago Bulls48.133.9.587-0.590.531.2331-1817-1658-2436-4695.4%19.2%8.414.117.117.316.311.
4Philadelphia 76ers48.034.0.585-0.650.701.7131-1917-1558-2436-4694.6%53.2%8.013.818.416.814.
5Milwaukee Bucks47.234.8.575-0.700.732.2331-2116-1457-2537-4590.6%10.1%
6Brooklyn Nets46.235.8.564-0.470.411.3429-2017-1657-2535-4786.3%30.1%2.85.610.413.315.117.612.49.264.814.610.
7Boston Celtics44.937.1.548-0.05-0.563.3727-2518-1253-2935-4779.9%10.8%
8Toronto Raptors43.638.4.5310.42-0.451.3625-2319-1554-2834-4862.1%5.8%
9Charlotte Hornets43.338.7.529-0.170.33-0.3028-2315-1653-2934-4854.9%2.6%
10Atlanta Hawks40.441.6.4920.08-0.180.3624-2616-1651-3131-5124.1%0.3%
11New York Knicks38.243.8.466-0.320.59-0.8624-2714-1748-3428-547.6%0.1%
12Washington Wizards37.744.3.4600.19-0.27-2.2823-2615-1848-3428-545.6%
13Indiana Pacers33.748.3.4110.55-0.88-1.3219-3315-1542-4025-570.2%
14Detroit Pistons20.661.4.2510.310.48-8.9812-379-2432-5012-70100.0
15Orlando Magic20.361.7.2470.090.45-7.7511-409-2231-5113-69100.0

Here are the column descriptions:

  • W and L are the average number of wins and losses, respectively, that the team had in the 1500 simulations.
  • Current is the team's curent W-L record.
  • Remain is the team's projected W-L record the remainder of the season.
  • Best is the team's best W-L record in the 1500 iterations.
  • Worst is the team's worst W-L record in the 1500 iterations.
  • Playoffs is the percentage of times the team made the playoffs in the 1500 iterations.
  • Division is the percentage of times the team won their division in the 1500 iterations.
  • Top Seed is the percentage of times the team was the top seed in their conference in the 1500 iterations.
  • Win Conf is the percentage of times the team won the conference playoffs in the 1500 iterations.
  • Win Finals is the percentage of times the team won the NBA Finals in the 1500 iterations.
  • Lottery is the percentage of time the team won the draft lottery in the 1500 iterations.