Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		7	8	9	10		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Miami Heat	51.8	30.2	.631	-0.41	-0.18	5.84	13-7	39-23	67-15	37-45	99.0%	80.5%	51.8	22.2	11.4	6.2	3.5	2.0	1.2	0.7		1.3	0.7	0.5	0.3		30.7%	9.9%
2	Brooklyn Nets	49.7	32.3	.606	-0.50	-0.12	3.60	14-6	36-26	64-18	35-47	96.4%	83.8%	23.2	26.9	19.2	10.7	7.4	4.5	2.7	1.9		3.1	2.0	1.3	0.9		16.0%	4.1%
3	Chicago Bulls	48.2	33.8	.587	-0.43	-0.07	3.57	13-8	35-26	62-20	34-48	92.2%	63.2%	12.7	20.0	19.0	13.5	9.8	7.6	5.6	4.1		5.8	4.1	3.3	2.0		15.7%	3.7%
4	Atlanta Hawks	45.1	36.9	.550	0.07	-0.07	2.69	11-10	34-27	60-22	31-51	74.4%	8.2%	3.0	6.9	9.8	12.4	12.0	11.4	9.6	9.3		9.8	9.1	8.0	6.2		9.1%	2.1%
5	Washington Wizards	44.7	37.3	.546	-0.35	0.08	0.61	13-7	32-30	59-23	30-52	69.8%	6.5%	2.4	5.4	8.7	11.1	12.1	11.4	9.8	8.9		10.8	9.8	8.2	6.9		4.1%	0.8%
6	Milwaukee Bucks	44.2	37.8	.539	-1.61	0.45	1.34	12-8	32-30	60-22	30-52	65.4%	18.1%	2.1	5.3	7.4	9.9	10.1	10.7	10.4	9.6		10.6	10.1	9.2	8.2		4.8%	0.9%
7	Charlotte Hornets	44.1	37.9	.537	0.39	-0.07	0.58	13-9	31-29	57-25	30-52	63.9%	4.8%	1.6	4.2	7.0	9.6	11.0	11.1	10.3	9.2		10.8	10.5	9.6	8.4		3.8%	0.6%
8	Philadelphia 76ers	43.3	38.7	.529	0.59	-0.30	1.44	10-10	33-29	56-26	29-53	56.9%	8.8%	1.2	3.0	5.5	7.8	9.0	9.7	10.0	10.7		10.0	10.0	10.0	10.1		4.1%	0.7%

9	Indiana Pacers	43.1	38.9	.525	0.20	-0.14	2.48	9-12	34-27	56-26	30-52	55.5%	11.7%	1.0	2.6	4.9	6.9	8.2	9.5	10.9	11.6		10.1	10.4	10.6	10.9		5.7%	1.2%
10	Cleveland Cavaliers	42.0	40.0	.512	0.62	-0.06	0.77	10-10	32-30	56-26	27-55	44.1%	7.1%	0.5	1.7	3.2	5.0	6.2	7.4	9.6	10.5		9.5	9.8	10.8	12.0		2.7%	0.4%
11	Boston Celtics	40.4	41.6	.493	-1.22	0.50	-0.07	10-10	30-32	55-27	25-57	27.4%	2.4%	0.2	0.7	1.3	2.3	3.5	5.0	6.7	7.8		6.1	7.9	9.2	11.0		1.2%	0.1%
12	Toronto Raptors	40.6	41.4	.495	0.65	0.13	0.40	9-11	32-30	57-25	27-55	30.6%	2.6%	0.1	0.7	1.5	2.6	4.1	5.1	7.4	9.0		6.9	8.6	10.2	11.2		1.5%	0.2%
13	New York Knicks	40.1	41.9	.489	-1.12	0.54	-0.97	11-9	29-33	55-27	27-55	24.5%	2.4%	0.1	0.6	1.2	2.1	3.1	4.7	5.8	6.9		5.3	7.1	9.0	12.0		0.8%	0.1%
14	Orlando Magic	21.1	60.9	.258	0.67	0.50	-10.47	4-17	17-44	35-47	10-72
15	Detroit Pistons	24.9	57.1	.304	1.21	0.21	-8.21	4-15	21-42	40-42	13-69

Table
														Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		7	8	9	10		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Golden State Warriors	62.7	19.3	.764	-1.34	-0.22	12.24	17-2	46-17	77-5	50-32	100.0%	92.5%	89.9	8.5	1.6												58.1%	48.5%
2	Phoenix Suns	55.5	26.5	.676	-1.52	0.04	6.08	17-3	38-24	69-13	41-41	100.0%	7.5%	6.9	54.8	33.1	4.3	0.6	0.2									13.1%	8.4%
3	Utah Jazz	53.6	28.4	.654	-1.16	-0.13	7.89	13-7	41-21	67-15	40-42	100.0%	95.1%	3.2	34.5	52.0	8.0	1.8	0.4	0.1			0.1	0.1				20.7%	14.9%
4	Los Angeles Clippers	46.3	35.7	.565	-0.34	-0.07	3.13	11-8	35-28	61-21	31-51	96.9%			1.4	7.9	43.5	23.3	11.7	6.0	3.1		6.9	3.2	1.3	0.6		3.9%	1.8%
5	Portland Trail Blazers	44.3	37.7	.540	1.24	-0.75	1.79	10-10	34-28	57-25	31-51	91.3%	3.5%		0.6	3.4	21.5	27.1	19.5	12.1	7.2		13.1	8.0	4.7	1.5		1.8%	0.7%
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	41.4	40.6	.505	-0.93	0.24	0.62	10-10	31-31	55-27	26-56	75.9%	0.9%		0.1	0.7	6.8	14.3	18.5	19.6	15.9		20.1	17.4	12.0	6.1		0.9%	0.3%
7	Dallas Mavericks	40.8	41.2	.498	0.21	-0.19	-1.35	10-8	31-33	56-26	28-54	70.9%	86.3%			0.8	6.7	13.0	18.3	17.2	15.0		18.5	17.7	12.9	7.0		0.4%	0.1%
8	Denver Nuggets	41.0	41.0	.499	0.83	-0.27	0.09	9-10	32-31	55-27	25-57	72.6%	0.5%			0.5	6.6	12.8	18.0	18.7	16.1		18.7	17.7	12.8	7.5		0.7%	0.2%

9	Sacramento Kings	38.8	43.2	.473	1.13	-0.37	-0.57	8-12	31-31	54-28	23-59	53.8%				0.1	2.3	6.0	9.8	16.2	19.5		14.3	18.9	20.8	14.3		0.5%	0.1%
10	Memphis Grizzlies	34.4	47.6	.419	1.45	-0.38	-5.18	9-10	25-38	48-34	18-64	14.2%	10.2%				0.2	0.6	1.6	3.9	8.0		3.6	6.8	12.2	19.8
11	Los Angeles Lakers	34.8	47.2	.424	-0.88	0.39	-4.02	10-11	25-36	49-33	22-60	15.9%					0.1	0.6	1.6	4.4	9.2		3.5	7.2	14.0	22.4
12	San Antonio Spurs	31.6	50.4	.386	-1.21	0.27	-4.09	5-13	27-37	46-36	19-63	5.1%	2.9%					0.1	0.4	1.1	3.5		0.7	1.9	4.9	10.3
13	Oklahoma City Thunder	30.3	51.7	.369	1.14	-0.20	-5.81	6-13	24-39	43-39	16-66	2.4%							0.1	0.5	1.8		0.4	1.0	3.1	6.9
14	New Orleans Pelicans	28.8	53.2	.351	2.07	-0.62	-5.57	5-17	24-36	43-39	17-65	1.1%	0.7%							0.1	0.9		0.1	0.3	1.1	3.5
15	Houston Rockets	22.8	59.2	.278	0.18	0.14	-9.45	3-16	20-43	37-45	10-72															0.1