Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Boston Celtics	55.5	26.5	.677	-0.33	0.14	5.14	36-15	19-12	65-17	46-36	100.0%	88.7%	78.3	14.7	4.6	2.1	0.4					100.0							29.9%	19.7%
2	Cleveland Cavaliers	50.3	31.7	.613	0.13	-0.77	4.74	31-21	19-11	59-23	39-43	99.8%	51.0%	6.7	24.4	24.8	21.4	16.9	4.5	0.8	0.4		98.7	1.1	0.2					24.6%	14.8%
3	Philadelphia 76ers	50.5	31.5	.616	-0.37	0.63	3.26	32-17	19-14	61-21	41-41	99.7%	8.4%	6.7	21.8	26.2	22.7	16.8	4.2	0.9	0.3		98.4	1.1	0.4	0.1				13.8%	7.5%
4	Milwaukee Bucks	50.6	31.4	.617	-0.09	0.18	2.11	33-17	18-14	61-21	40-42	99.7%	48.9%	6.0	27.7	23.0	21.0	17.6	3.7	0.6	0.3		98.9	0.8	0.2	0.1				8.7%	4.0%
5	Brooklyn Nets	49.3	32.7	.601	-0.23	0.40	2.81	31-19	18-14	60-22	39-43	99.4%	2.9%	2.3	11.0	19.5	27.9	28.5	7.9	1.6	0.8		97.0	2.3	0.5	0.2				11.3%	5.6%
6	Miami Heat	43.2	38.8	.527	-0.10	0.41	0.15	28-23	15-16	53-29	33-49	72.5%	67.3%		0.2	0.9	2.2	8.6	28.7	18.1	13.7		40.7	23.1	14.0	9.9	6.8	5.6		2.1%	0.7%
7	New York Knicks	43.8	38.2	.534	-0.06	0.32	1.81	27-24	17-14	54-28	34-48	79.9%			0.2	0.9	2.2	7.8	30.4	23.7	14.8		41.4	27.8	15.1	7.9	4.6	3.2		5.2%	2.3%
8	Washington Wizards	40.7	41.3	.496	0.24	-0.28	0.20	24-26	17-15	51-31	30-52	43.2%	20.5%			0.1	0.3	1.4	8.4	16.5	16.5		10.1	14.1	18.5	18.1	16.3	23.0		1.2%	0.3%

9	Chicago Bulls	40.4	41.6	.493	0.44	-0.46	0.42	23-26	17-16	50-32	30-52	39.8%					0.2	1.2	5.2	15.6	17.6		6.7	11.5	20.3	20.0	16.9	24.6		1.3%	0.4%
10	Atlanta Hawks	39.6	42.4	.483	-0.20	0.39	-0.83	25-26	15-16	49-33	28-54	28.8%	12.2%				0.1	0.8	4.4	10.0	13.5		5.3	9.1	13.0	16.9	19.4	36.4		0.5%	0.2%
11	Toronto Raptors	39.1	42.9	.477	0.42	-0.52	0.92	23-29	16-14	49-33	28-54	24.7%						0.2	2.0	8.8	13.7		2.2	6.7	11.1	15.0	18.1	46.9		1.1%	0.5%
12	Indiana Pacers	37.7	44.3	.460	0.38	-0.14	-1.68	24-28	14-16	47-35	28-54	12.1%							0.6	3.5	8.0		0.6	2.3	6.8	11.6	16.9	61.9		0.2%	0.1%
13	Orlando Magic	32.8	49.2	.401	0.22	0.05	-3.05	20-31	13-18	42-40	23-59	0.4%								0.1	0.3				0.2	0.3	1.1	98.5
14	Detroit Pistons	23.1	58.9	.282	0.75	-0.35	-6.68	13-39	10-20	32-50	14-68																	100.0
15	Charlotte Hornets	26.1	55.9	.318	0.57	-0.12	-5.80	15-36	11-20	38-44	17-65																	100.0

Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Denver Nuggets	53.0	29.0	.647	-0.27	-0.11	3.55	34-16	19-13	63-19	42-40	100.0%	99.6%	65.5	29.5	4.4	0.4	0.1					100.0							24.5%	12.1%
2	Memphis Grizzlies	51.8	30.2	.632	-0.23	-0.36	4.15	32-18	20-12	61-21	40-42	100.0%	98.5%	32.0	55.6	10.8	1.0	0.3	0.2				99.9							28.4%	14.8%
3	Sacramento Kings	46.8	35.2	.570	-0.34	-0.19	2.67	28-21	19-14	58-24	37-45	96.7%	72.0%	2.2	12.1	48.1	16.1	8.1	5.1	3.0	2.0		91.7	3.4	2.1	1.3	0.7	0.8		14.8%	6.4%
4	Phoenix Suns	42.9	39.1	.523	-0.01	0.17	1.45	27-25	16-14	52-30	34-48	73.9%	16.0%	0.1	0.8	10.3	14.7	14.0	12.7	11.5	9.8		52.6	11.2	10.1	8.8	6.8	10.4		6.4%	2.3%
5	Dallas Mavericks	42.4	39.6	.518	-0.01	-0.34	0.38	27-25	15-15	52-30	34-48	65.6%	0.9%	0.1	0.5	4.6	12.6	13.2	12.8	11.4	10.6		43.7	12.4	11.0	10.2	9.0	13.8		3.4%	1.2%
6	New Orleans Pelicans	42.8	39.2	.522	-0.11	-0.25	1.40	26-25	17-14	52-30	33-49	71.8%	0.7%		0.5	6.3	15.5	14.6	13.1	12.0	9.7		50.1	11.8	10.3	9.0	7.2	11.6		6.1%	2.2%
7	Golden State Warriors	42.0	40.0	.512	-0.03	0.01	0.05	26-24	16-16	53-29	31-51	58.8%	8.2%		0.5	5.3	8.9	10.4	11.6	10.6	11.5		36.7	11.9	11.3	11.3	10.2	18.7		2.6%	0.7%
8	Utah Jazz	41.9	40.1	.511	-0.05	-0.09	1.14	26-26	16-14	52-30	31-51	61.9%	0.2%		0.2	3.3	10.9	11.6	11.9	12.3	11.7		37.9	11.5	12.2	10.9	9.8	17.7		4.7%	1.6%

9	Oklahoma City Thunder	41.8	40.2	.509	0.44	-0.79	1.42	24-26	18-14	53-29	31-51	57.4%	0.1%		0.2	3.0	8.5	10.6	11.1	12.0	12.1		33.3	11.3	11.4	11.0	10.7	22.3		4.9%	1.6%
10	Los Angeles Clippers	40.9	41.1	.499	-0.86	1.31	-0.84	28-25	13-16	52-30	32-50	40.4%	3.7%		0.1	2.2	4.3	5.8	8.3	9.2	10.5		20.7	9.6	10.6	12.3	13.9	32.9		1.4%	0.4%
11	Minnesota Timberwolves	40.7	41.3	.496	-0.35	0.51	-0.29	27-26	14-15	51-31	31-51	38.6%	0.1%			1.1	4.2	6.3	7.1	9.3	10.7		18.7	8.9	10.3	12.4	13.8	36.0		1.3%	0.3%
12	Portland Trail Blazers	39.7	42.3	.484	-0.31	0.39	0.07	24-26	16-16	50-32	30-52	29.4%				0.7	2.7	4.6	5.2	7.5	8.7		13.2	6.5	8.9	9.6	12.3	49.6		1.3%	0.5%
13	Los Angeles Lakers	37.0	45.0	.451	-0.13	0.30	-1.50	23-28	14-17	47-35	27-55	5.6%	0.2%			0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9	1.3	2.6		1.7	1.5	1.8	3.2	5.5	86.3		0.1%
14	Houston Rockets	21.5	60.5	.262	0.09	0.58	-7.41	12-38	9-23	31-51	13-69																	100.0
15	San Antonio Spurs	21.8	60.2	.265	0.41	0.15	-9.32	14-37	8-23	32-50	15-67																	100.0