Playoff Probabilities Report
Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of
season, including the play-in round.
See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to
project the draft order and lottery winners.
Projected Standings
First Round Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Eastern Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1-6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Out | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Boston Celtics | 55.5 | 26.5 | .677 | -0.33 | 0.14 | 5.14 | 36-15 | 19-12 | 65-17 | 46-36 | 100.0% | 88.7% | 78.3 | 14.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 100.0 | 29.9% | 19.7% | ||||||||||
2 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 50.3 | 31.7 | .613 | 0.13 | -0.77 | 4.74 | 31-21 | 19-11 | 59-23 | 39-43 | 99.8% | 51.0% | 6.7 | 24.4 | 24.8 | 21.4 | 16.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 98.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 24.6% | 14.8% | |||||
3 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 31.5 | .616 | -0.37 | 0.63 | 3.26 | 32-17 | 19-14 | 61-21 | 41-41 | 99.7% | 8.4% | 6.7 | 21.8 | 26.2 | 22.7 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 98.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 13.8% | 7.5% | ||||
4 | Milwaukee Bucks | 50.6 | 31.4 | .617 | -0.09 | 0.18 | 2.11 | 33-17 | 18-14 | 61-21 | 40-42 | 99.7% | 48.9% | 6.0 | 27.7 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 17.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 98.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.7% | 4.0% | ||||
5 | Brooklyn Nets | 49.3 | 32.7 | .601 | -0.23 | 0.40 | 2.81 | 31-19 | 18-14 | 60-22 | 39-43 | 99.4% | 2.9% | 2.3 | 11.0 | 19.5 | 27.9 | 28.5 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 97.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 11.3% | 5.6% | ||||
6 | Miami Heat | 43.2 | 38.8 | .527 | -0.10 | 0.41 | 0.15 | 28-23 | 15-16 | 53-29 | 33-49 | 72.5% | 67.3% | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 28.7 | 18.1 | 13.7 | 40.7 | 23.1 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.1% | 0.7% | |||
7 | New York Knicks | 43.8 | 38.2 | .534 | -0.06 | 0.32 | 1.81 | 27-24 | 17-14 | 54-28 | 34-48 | 79.9% | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 7.8 | 30.4 | 23.7 | 14.8 | 41.4 | 27.8 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 5.2% | 2.3% | ||||
8 | Washington Wizards | 40.7 | 41.3 | .496 | 0.24 | -0.28 | 0.20 | 24-26 | 17-15 | 51-31 | 30-52 | 43.2% | 20.5% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 8.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 18.5 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 23.0 | 1.2% | 0.3% | ||||
9 | Chicago Bulls | 40.4 | 41.6 | .493 | 0.44 | -0.46 | 0.42 | 23-26 | 17-16 | 50-32 | 30-52 | 39.8% | 0.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 20.3 | 20.0 | 16.9 | 24.6 | 1.3% | 0.4% | ||||||
10 | Atlanta Hawks | 39.6 | 42.4 | .483 | -0.20 | 0.39 | -0.83 | 25-26 | 15-16 | 49-33 | 28-54 | 28.8% | 12.2% | 0.1 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 36.4 | 0.5% | 0.2% | |||||
11 | Toronto Raptors | 39.1 | 42.9 | .477 | 0.42 | -0.52 | 0.92 | 23-29 | 16-14 | 49-33 | 28-54 | 24.7% | 0.2 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 13.7 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 15.0 | 18.1 | 46.9 | 1.1% | 0.5% | |||||||
12 | Indiana Pacers | 37.7 | 44.3 | .460 | 0.38 | -0.14 | -1.68 | 24-28 | 14-16 | 47-35 | 28-54 | 12.1% | 0.6 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 16.9 | 61.9 | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||||||||
13 | Orlando Magic | 32.8 | 49.2 | .401 | 0.22 | 0.05 | -3.05 | 20-31 | 13-18 | 42-40 | 23-59 | 0.4% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 98.5 | |||||||||||||
14 | Detroit Pistons | 23.1 | 58.9 | .282 | 0.75 | -0.35 | -6.68 | 13-39 | 10-20 | 32-50 | 14-68 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | Charlotte Hornets | 26.1 | 55.9 | .318 | 0.57 | -0.12 | -5.80 | 15-36 | 11-20 | 38-44 | 17-65 | 100.0 |
First Round Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Western Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1-6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Out | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Denver Nuggets | 53.0 | 29.0 | .647 | -0.27 | -0.11 | 3.55 | 34-16 | 19-13 | 63-19 | 42-40 | 100.0% | 99.6% | 65.5 | 29.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 100.0 | 24.5% | 12.1% | ||||||||||
2 | Memphis Grizzlies | 51.8 | 30.2 | .632 | -0.23 | -0.36 | 4.15 | 32-18 | 20-12 | 61-21 | 40-42 | 100.0% | 98.5% | 32.0 | 55.6 | 10.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 99.9 | 28.4% | 14.8% | |||||||||
3 | Sacramento Kings | 46.8 | 35.2 | .570 | -0.34 | -0.19 | 2.67 | 28-21 | 19-14 | 58-24 | 37-45 | 96.7% | 72.0% | 2.2 | 12.1 | 48.1 | 16.1 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 91.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 14.8% | 6.4% | ||
4 | Phoenix Suns | 42.9 | 39.1 | .523 | -0.01 | 0.17 | 1.45 | 27-25 | 16-14 | 52-30 | 34-48 | 73.9% | 16.0% | 0.1 | 0.8 | 10.3 | 14.7 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 52.6 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 6.4% | 2.3% | ||
5 | Dallas Mavericks | 42.4 | 39.6 | .518 | -0.01 | -0.34 | 0.38 | 27-25 | 15-15 | 52-30 | 34-48 | 65.6% | 0.9% | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 43.7 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 13.8 | 3.4% | 1.2% | ||
6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 42.8 | 39.2 | .522 | -0.11 | -0.25 | 1.40 | 26-25 | 17-14 | 52-30 | 33-49 | 71.8% | 0.7% | 0.5 | 6.3 | 15.5 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 50.1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 6.1% | 2.2% | |||
7 | Golden State Warriors | 42.0 | 40.0 | .512 | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 26-24 | 16-16 | 53-29 | 31-51 | 58.8% | 8.2% | 0.5 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 36.7 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 18.7 | 2.6% | 0.7% | |||
8 | Utah Jazz | 41.9 | 40.1 | .511 | -0.05 | -0.09 | 1.14 | 26-26 | 16-14 | 52-30 | 31-51 | 61.9% | 0.2% | 0.2 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 37.9 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 17.7 | 4.7% | 1.6% | |||
9 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 41.8 | 40.2 | .509 | 0.44 | -0.79 | 1.42 | 24-26 | 18-14 | 53-29 | 31-51 | 57.4% | 0.1% | 0.2 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 33.3 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 22.3 | 4.9% | 1.6% | |||
10 | Los Angeles Clippers | 40.9 | 41.1 | .499 | -0.86 | 1.31 | -0.84 | 28-25 | 13-16 | 52-30 | 32-50 | 40.4% | 3.7% | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 13.9 | 32.9 | 1.4% | 0.4% | |||
11 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 40.7 | 41.3 | .496 | -0.35 | 0.51 | -0.29 | 27-26 | 14-15 | 51-31 | 31-51 | 38.6% | 0.1% | 1.1 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 18.7 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 36.0 | 1.3% | 0.3% | ||||
12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 39.7 | 42.3 | .484 | -0.31 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 24-26 | 16-16 | 50-32 | 30-52 | 29.4% | 0.7 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 49.6 | 1.3% | 0.5% | |||||
13 | Los Angeles Lakers | 37.0 | 45.0 | .451 | -0.13 | 0.30 | -1.50 | 23-28 | 14-17 | 47-35 | 27-55 | 5.6% | 0.2% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 86.3 | 0.1% | |||||
14 | Houston Rockets | 21.5 | 60.5 | .262 | 0.09 | 0.58 | -7.41 | 12-38 | 9-23 | 31-51 | 13-69 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | San Antonio Spurs | 21.8 | 60.2 | .265 | 0.41 | 0.15 | -9.32 | 14-37 | 8-23 | 32-50 | 15-67 | 100.0 |
We're Social...for Statheads
Every Sports Reference Social Media Account
Site Last Updated: Tuesday, January 31, 6:46PM
Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction?
Subscribe to our Free Email Newsletter
Subscribe to Stathead Basketball: Get your first month FREE
Your All-Access Ticket to the Basketball Reference Database
Do you have a sports website? Or write about sports? We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. Find out more.