11 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 24, 2010)”

1. DSMok1 Says:
   December 24th, 2010 at 12:07 pm

   Rest day-adjusted, minimizing residuals^1.5

   Team	Off	Def	Pace	Eff. Margin
   BOS	2.89	-7.19	-1.55	10.07
   MIA	3.86	-5.09	-1.45	8.95
   LAL	6.38	-0.52	0.39	6.90
   SAS	5.45	-1.07	0.26	6.53
   DAL	2.44	-4.07	-0.91	6.51
   CHI	-2.23	-7.70	-0.32	5.47
   UTA	4.72	-0.28	-2.02	5.00
   DEN	4.70	1.79	4.17	2.91
   NOH	-1.10	-3.39	-1.50	2.29
   ORL	0.03	-2.03	-1.09	2.06
   OKC	3.71	1.72	0.40	1.99
   ATL	1.40	0.09	-1.98	1.31
   HOU	3.09	1.84	1.65	1.25
   POR	1.02	-0.15	-4.53	1.16
   NYK	3.31	2.57	4.05	0.74
   MEM	-1.73	-2.17	0.51	0.45
   PHI	-1.50	-1.94	-0.59	0.44
   PHO	5.31	5.80	2.82	-0.49
   IND	-3.32	-2.41	2.01	-0.91
   MIL	-7.77	-6.05	-2.13	-1.73
   GSW	-0.07	3.79	2.41	-3.86
   LAC	-2.84	1.32	-1.04	-4.16
   TOR	0.49	5.02	1.53	-4.53
   CHA	-4.96	-0.31	-2.38	-4.65
   NJN	-4.30	0.69	-2.43	-4.99
   MIN	-1.56	4.06	5.48	-5.62
   DET	-0.97	4.78	-3.52	-5.74
   WAS	-4.08	3.40	1.41	-7.48
   CLE	-5.99	3.46	0.54	-9.45
   SAC	-6.39	4.02	-0.20	-10.41

   Question: Neil, do you minimize the residual of the efficiency, or the residual of the efficiencies and the margin? I'm minimizing the residual of each efficiency ^1.5 and the residual of the efficiency margin *4 ^1.5.

2. Neil Paine Says:
   December 24th, 2010 at 1:52 pm

   I'm just minimizing the sum of the squared errors for each efficiency. So the error term for each game is:

   (actual home rtg - home rtg predicted from SRS)^2 + (actual away rtg - away rtg predicted from SRS)^2

   Then I minimize the average error per game, weighted by the # of possessions in each game. You have to do it that way to get the numbers to be centered around the actual league average pts/100 poss.

3. DSMok1 Says:
   December 24th, 2010 at 1:58 pm

   I think your rankings will be more indicative of overall team strength if you also minimize the errors of the overall margin. You might look into that.

4. danny95207 Says:
   December 24th, 2010 at 5:44 pm

   Hope Sacramento will get better ranking

5. dsong Says:
   December 25th, 2010 at 8:00 pm

   Well, at least the Lakers are improving; a 16-point thumping at home vs. the Miami Heat after a 19-point shellacking at home vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.

   I guess the Lakers are pulling their usual Randy Moss act and play when they feel like it. Kinda frustrating to see them treat every game like a preseason game until the playoffs, but hey, as long as they win championships they'll be forgiven.

6. kelfala m Says:
   December 26th, 2010 at 5:19 pm

   It's great to see the miami heat on the rise they have too much talent to fail. Boston is doing great as well. I wonder who would be on top after the season is over.

7. cbobcat3 Says:
   December 29th, 2010 at 6:22 pm

   Is there a place/way to go and look at how a team's SRS has changed after each game? For instance...the Bobcats SRS after their 1st game, 10th game, etc?

8. DSMok1 Says:
   December 30th, 2010 at 9:59 am

   @ Cbobcat3

   Here's something similar to what you'd like: it's Charlotte's performances in each game, adjusted for opponent, rest, and location. Whether the game was a win or not is also indicated with the darker bars: http://picasaweb.google.com/118396169256157940063/APBRCharts#5556489894993116242

9. cbobcat3 Says:
   December 30th, 2010 at 6:00 pm

   Thanks DSMok1...does the adj eff relate to SRS? What does the blue line represent...trend?

10. DSMok1 Says:
    December 30th, 2010 at 9:35 pm

    It's similar to what Neil is doing here, not SRS (which is based on points rather than efficiency). But the effect is the same. I also included rest compensation.

    The blue line does represent trend.

11. Ben Says:
    December 31st, 2010 at 11:40 am

    D.S. Mok, how big is the HCA and rest day adjustment in your rankings?