## Can SPM Predict the Playoffs?

Posted by Neil Paine on May 4, 2009

A week ago, we delved deeper into our new Statistical Plus/Minus results and tried to retrodict the standings for the regular season, coming within a healthy +/- 6.6 wins per team. Now the question is, can we put the same method to the test for a playoff series? Let's use the recently-completed first round as a test case...

(I should point out that I fixed the Derek Fisher/D.J. Mbenga error that had plagued last week's release, as well as crafting new version of the projection formula by throwing out incoming 1st-year players, which significantly improved predictive accuracy for each player. The new formula and its results can be found on the new spreadsheet, available for download.)

The main exercise here will be using projections for 2010 to form a measure of "true SPM skill" in 2009. Borrowing a concept from the White Sox chapter of *Baseball Prospectus 2006*, we could describe the simple SPM projection system like this:

2010 Forecast = 2009 True Ability + Age Adjustment

or

2009 True Ability = 2010 Forecast - Age Adjustment

Look at that! We all can do elementary algebra! Anyway, the premise is very basic: a player's "true skill" this season is equal to his projection for next season (which is in turn made up of a weighted average of the past 3 seasons' worth of data), but before you adjust up or down for age. Since the simple projection system handles the age adjustment in such a, well, simple fashion, it's pretty easy to find each player's "true skill" level in this manner.

Now it's time to put them to use in retrodicting the first round of the playoffs. Remember, the team minute totals are the only things known to us after the fact, because projecting playing time is another laborious endeavor for another post. But we mainly want to see how the true skill levels (in terms of a per-minute rate) did at predicting the performance of this year's playoff teams (converting predicted +/- to Win%, and running log5 projections for every game, assuming a constant 60% home-court advantage):

**East**

**1. Cleveland vs. 8. Detroit**

Player | Ag | Tm | Ht | Pos | Skill | Min |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DelonteWest | 25 | CLE | 76 | G | 0.51 | 164 |

LeBronJames | 24 | CLE | 80 | F | 12.76 | 162 |

MoWilliams | 26 | CLE | 73 | G | 0.79 | 148 |

AndersonVarejao | 26 | CLE | 82 | F | 0.64 | 133 |

ZydrunasIlgauskas | 33 | CLE | 87 | C | -0.34 | 111 |

JoeSmith | 33 | CLE | 82 | F | -1.91 | 81 |

DanielGibson | 22 | CLE | 74 | G | -1.25 | 60 |

BenWallace | 34 | CLE | 81 | F | 1.15 | 45 |

WallySzczerbiak | 31 | CLE | 79 | F | -1.53 | 38 |

DarnellJackson | 23 | CLE | 81 | F | -3.35 | 10 |

SashaPavlovic | 25 | CLE | 80 | G | -2.94 | 4 |

TarenceKinsey | 24 | CLE | 78 | G | -2.97 | 3 |

Cleveland | 10.57 | 0.845 | ||||

RichardHamilton | 30 | DET | 78 | G | 0.30 | 154 |

AntonioMcDyess | 34 | DET | 81 | F | 0.74 | 136 |

TayshaunPrince | 28 | DET | 81 | F | -0.35 | 129 |

RodneyStuckey | 22 | DET | 77 | G | -0.41 | 128 |

RasheedWallace | 34 | DET | 82 | F | 3.33 | 122 |

WillBynum | 26 | DET | 72 | G | -1.06 | 78 |

ArronAfflalo | 23 | DET | 77 | G | -2.87 | 66 |

JasonMaxiell | 25 | DET | 79 | F | -1.09 | 64 |

KwameBrown | 26 | DET | 83 | F | -1.08 | 48 |

WalterHerrmann | 29 | DET | 81 | F | -2.60 | 22 |

AmirJohnson | 21 | DET | 81 | F | 0.84 | 13 |

Detroit | 0.08 | 0.501 |

*Cleveland in 4* | 48.6% |

Detroit in 4 | 0.1% |

Cleveland in 5 | 34.6% |

Detroit in 5 | 0.1% |

Cleveland in 6 | 11.1% |

Detroit in 6 | 0.5% |

Cleveland in 7 | 4.4% |

Detroit in 7 | 0.5% |

**2. Boston vs. 7. Chicago**

RajonRondo | 22 | BOS | 73 | G | 3.87 | 317 |

PaulPierce | 31 | BOS | 78 | F | 3.66 | 311 |

GlenDavis | 23 | BOS | 81 | F | -1.43 | 291 |

RayAllen | 33 | BOS | 77 | G | 2.34 | 280 |

KendrickPerkins | 24 | BOS | 82 | C | -0.76 | 265 |

EddieHouse | 30 | BOS | 73 | G | 1.17 | 103 |

StephonMarbury | 31 | BOS | 74 | G | -2.38 | 82 |

BrianScalabrine | 30 | BOS | 81 | F | -2.24 | 80 |

MikkiMoore | 33 | BOS | 83 | C | -2.11 | 49 |

TonyAllen | 27 | BOS | 76 | G | -0.81 | 48 |

LeonPowe | 25 | BOS | 80 | F | 0.80 | 24 |

BillWalker | 21 | BOS | 78 | F | -1.94 | 3 |

GabePruitt | 22 | BOS | 76 | G | -2.16 | 3 |

Boston | 5.42 | 0.676 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DerrickRose | 20 | CHI | 75 | G | -2.21 | 313 |

JohnSalmons | 29 | CHI | 79 | G | -0.64 | 313 |

BenGordon | 25 | CHI | 75 | G | 0.06 | 304 |

JoakimNoah | 23 | CHI | 83 | C | 2.20 | 271 |

KirkHinrich | 28 | CHI | 75 | G | 1.10 | 210 |

TyrusThomas | 22 | CHI | 81 | F | 0.24 | 195 |

BradMiller | 32 | CHI | 83 | C | 1.98 | 186 |

LindseyHunter | 38 | CHI | 74 | G | -1.67 | 24 |

TimThomas | 31 | CHI | 82 | F | -0.69 | 15 |

LintonJohnson | 28 | CHI | 80 | F | -2.19 | 10 |

AaronGray | 24 | CHI | 84 | C | -1.05 | 9 |

AnthonyRoberson | 25 | CHI | 74 | G | -2.25 | 4 |

Chicago | 0.75 | 0.523 |

Boston in 4 | 17.2% |

Chicago in 4 | 1.3% |

Boston in 5 | 28.9% |

Chicago in 5 | 2.8% |

Boston in 6 | 18.8% |

Chicago in 6 | 7.1% |

*Boston in 7* | 17.7% |

Chicago in 7 | 6.2% |

**3. Orlando vs. 6. Philadelphia**

RashardLewis | 29 | ORL | 82 | F | 3.38 | 238 |

HedoTurkoglu | 29 | ORL | 82 | F | 2.44 | 223 |

RaferAlston | 32 | ORL | 74 | G | 1.38 | 198 |

DwightHoward | 23 | ORL | 83 | C | 5.39 | 194 |

CourtneyLee | 23 | ORL | 77 | G | -1.46 | 167 |

MickaelPietrus | 26 | ORL | 78 | G | -0.39 | 125 |

AnthonyJohnson | 34 | ORL | 75 | G | -2.08 | 96 |

MarcinGortat | 24 | ORL | 84 | F | -0.50 | 86 |

J.J.Redick | 24 | ORL | 76 | G | -2.55 | 73 |

TonyBattie | 32 | ORL | 83 | C | -3.47 | 40 |

Orlando | 6.27 | 0.704 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

AndreIguodala | 25 | PHI | 78 | G | 4.28 | 269 |

AndreMiller | 32 | PHI | 74 | G | 1.97 | 258 |

ThaddeusYoung | 20 | PHI | 80 | F | -1.16 | 229 |

LouisWilliams | 22 | PHI | 74 | G | 0.67 | 149 |

WillieGreen | 27 | PHI | 76 | G | -3.32 | 147 |

SamuelDalembert | 27 | PHI | 83 | C | -2.26 | 133 |

TheoRatliff | 35 | PHI | 82 | C | -0.27 | 94 |

DonyellMarshall | 35 | PHI | 81 | F | 0.65 | 50 |

RoyalIvey | 27 | PHI | 75 | G | -2.61 | 45 |

ReggieEvans | 28 | PHI | 80 | F | -1.08 | 36 |

MarreeseSpeights | 21 | PHI | 82 | F | -1.32 | 29 |

Philadelphia | 1.80 | 0.558 |

Orlando in 4 | 16.9% |

Philly in 4 | 1.3% |

Orlando in 5 | 28.8% |

Philly in 5 | 2.9% |

*Orlando in 6* | 18.8% |

Philly in 6 | 7.3% |

Orlando in 7 | 17.8% |

Philly in 7 | 6.3% |

**4. Atlanta vs. 5. Miami**

JoeJohnson | 27 | ATL | 80 | G | 1.63 | 270 |

JoshSmith | 23 | ATL | 81 | F | 2.35 | 266 |

MikeBibby | 30 | ATL | 73 | G | 1.10 | 255 |

RonaldMurray | 29 | ATL | 76 | G | -1.58 | 213 |

MauriceEvans | 30 | ATL | 77 | G | -1.86 | 180 |

AlHorford | 22 | ATL | 82 | C | 0.69 | 171 |

ZazaPachulia | 24 | ATL | 83 | C | -1.17 | 166 |

SolomonJones | 24 | ATL | 82 | F | -2.29 | 50 |

MarvinWilliams | 22 | ATL | 81 | F | -0.62 | 41 |

MarioWest | 24 | ATL | 77 | G | -0.55 | 34 |

AcieLaw | 24 | ATL | 75 | G | -4.39 | 16 |

RandolphMorris | 23 | ATL | 82 | C | -3.97 | 8 |

SpeedyClaxton | 30 | ATL | 71 | G | -2.61 | 3 |

ThomasGardner | 23 | ATL | 77 | G | -4.01 | 3 |

OthelloHunter | 22 | ATL | 80 | F | -2.58 | 2 |

Atlanta | 0.92 | 0.529 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DwyaneWade | 27 | MIA | 76 | G | 9.04 | 285 |

JamesJones | 28 | MIA | 80 | F | -1.71 | 235 |

MarioChalmers | 22 | MIA | 73 | G | 1.72 | 231 |

UdonisHaslem | 28 | MIA | 80 | F | -2.93 | 204 |

MichaelBeasley | 20 | MIA | 82 | F | -3.00 | 179 |

JermaineO'Neal | 30 | MIA | 83 | F | -1.54 | 162 |

DaequanCook | 21 | MIA | 77 | G | -3.32 | 161 |

JoelAnthony | 26 | MIA | 81 | C | -2.31 | 89 |

JamaalMagloire | 30 | MIA | 83 | C | -3.67 | 48 |

JamarioMoon | 28 | MIA | 80 | F | 1.11 | 40 |

ChrisQuinn | 25 | MIA | 74 | G | -1.37 | 24 |

YakhoubaDiawara | 26 | MIA | 79 | F | -4.23 | 21 |

DorellWright | 23 | MIA | 79 | G | -2.25 | 3 |

Miami | 0.55 | 0.517 |

Atlanta in 4 | 6.4% |

Miami in 4 | 5.2% |

Atlanta in 5 | 16.0% |

Miami in 5 | 9.2% |

Atlanta in 6 | 13.9% |

Miami in 6 | 17.3% |

*Atlanta in 7* | 19.6% |

Miami in 7 | 12.4% |

**West**

**1. Los Angeles vs. 8. Utah**

KobeBryant | 30 | LAL | 78 | G | 6.44 | 203 |

PauGasol | 28 | LAL | 84 | F | 2.99 | 194 |

LamarOdom | 29 | LAL | 82 | F | 2.42 | 183 |

TrevorAriza | 23 | LAL | 80 | F | 2.45 | 159 |

DerekFisher | 34 | LAL | 73 | G | -0.34 | 146 |

ShannonBrown | 23 | LAL | 76 | G | -3.50 | 87 |

AndrewBynum | 21 | LAL | 84 | C | 0.69 | 77 |

SashaVujacic | 24 | LAL | 79 | G | 1.01 | 77 |

LukeWalton | 28 | LAL | 80 | F | -1.76 | 49 |

JoshPowell | 26 | LAL | 81 | F | -5.68 | 18 |

JordanFarmar | 22 | LAL | 74 | G | -2.10 | 8 |

Los Angeles | 9.54 | 0.811 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DeronWilliams | 24 | UTA | 75 | G | 1.94 | 211 |

CarlosBoozer | 27 | UTA | 81 | F | 2.04 | 186 |

RonnieBrewer | 23 | UTA | 79 | G | 1.02 | 158 |

PaulMillsap | 23 | UTA | 80 | F | 2.42 | 155 |

AndreiKirilenko | 27 | UTA | 81 | F | 2.63 | 136 |

KyleKorver | 27 | UTA | 79 | F | -0.41 | 136 |

C.J.Miles | 21 | UTA | 78 | G | -1.68 | 58 |

MattHarpring | 32 | UTA | 79 | F | -2.16 | 49 |

MehmetOkur | 29 | UTA | 83 | F | 1.70 | 43 |

JarronCollins | 30 | UTA | 83 | F | -3.20 | 35 |

BrevinKnight | 33 | UTA | 70 | G | -1.02 | 17 |

RonniePrice | 25 | UTA | 74 | G | -2.41 | 16 |

Utah | 5.55 | 0.680 |

L.A. in 4 | 18.5% |

Utah in 4 | 1.1% |

*L.A. in 5* | 29.9% |

Utah in 5 | 2.5% |

L.A. in 6 | 18.9% |

Utah in 6 | 6.4% |

L.A. in 7 | 17.0% |

Utah in 7 | 5.6% |

**2. Denver vs. 7. New Orleans**

CarmeloAnthony | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | 2.17 | 183 |

ChaunceyBillups | 32 | DEN | 75 | G | 4.29 | 178 |

KenyonMartin | 31 | DEN | 81 | F | -0.25 | 163 |

NeneHilario | 26 | DEN | 83 | F | 1.70 | 148 |

J.R.Smith | 23 | DEN | 78 | G | 1.78 | 125 |

ChrisAndersen | 30 | DEN | 82 | F | 1.36 | 112 |

DahntayJones | 28 | DEN | 78 | G | -3.23 | 103 |

AnthonyCarter | 33 | DEN | 73 | G | -1.18 | 75 |

LinasKleiza | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | -2.16 | 69 |

JohanPetro | 23 | DEN | 84 | C | -4.12 | 17 |

RenaldoBalkman | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | 0.92 | 15 |

JasonHart | 30 | DEN | 75 | G | -3.33 | 13 |

Denver | 4.48 | 0.645 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

ChrisPaul | 23 | NOH | 72 | G | 10.93 | 201 |

DavidWest | 28 | NOH | 81 | F | 0.44 | 178 |

PejaStojakovic | 31 | NOH | 81 | F | -0.28 | 162 |

RasualButler | 29 | NOH | 79 | G | -2.15 | 158 |

JamesPosey | 32 | NOH | 80 | F | 1.11 | 123 |

TysonChandler | 26 | NOH | 85 | C | -0.70 | 94 |

SeanMarks | 33 | NOH | 82 | F | -4.16 | 80 |

AntonioDaniels | 33 | NOH | 76 | G | -1.96 | 64 |

HiltonArmstrong | 24 | NOH | 83 | F | -3.53 | 53 |

DevinBrown | 30 | NOH | 77 | G | -2.21 | 33 |

JulianWright | 21 | NOH | 80 | F | -2.51 | 32 |

MorrisPeterson | 31 | NOH | 79 | F | -1.52 | 21 |

RyanBowen | 33 | NOH | 79 | F | -0.41 | 2 |

New Orleans | 4.70 | 0.652 |

Denver in 4 | 5.4% |

New Orleans in 4 | 6.1% |

*Denver in 5* | 14.4% |

New Orleans in 5 | 10.5% |

Denver in 6 | 12.9% |

New Orleans in 6 | 18.8% |

Denver in 7 | 19.0% |

New Orleans in 7 | 13.0% |

**3. San Antonio vs. 6. Dallas**

TonyParker | 26 | SAS | 74 | G | 1.53 | 181 |

TimDuncan | 32 | SAS | 83 | F | 5.93 | 164 |

MichaelFinley | 35 | SAS | 79 | G | -2.03 | 143 |

BruceBowen | 37 | SAS | 79 | F | -2.17 | 130 |

RogerMason | 28 | SAS | 77 | G | -1.44 | 108 |

ImeUdoka | 31 | SAS | 78 | F | -0.77 | 104 |

MattBonner | 28 | SAS | 82 | F | 1.39 | 100 |

KurtThomas | 36 | SAS | 81 | F | 0.29 | 80 |

GeorgeHill | 22 | SAS | 74 | G | -0.83 | 76 |

DrewGooden | 27 | SAS | 82 | F | -2.27 | 71 |

FabricioOberto | 33 | SAS | 82 | F | -0.33 | 22 |

JacqueVaughn | 33 | SAS | 73 | G | -4.37 | 21 |

San Antonio | 1.16 | 0.537 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DirkNowitzki | 30 | DAL | 84 | F | 4.42 | 186 |

JasonKidd | 35 | DAL | 76 | G | 5.36 | 186 |

JoshHoward | 28 | DAL | 79 | F | 0.91 | 159 |

JasonTerry | 31 | DAL | 74 | G | 1.92 | 156 |

ErickDampier | 33 | DAL | 83 | C | 0.83 | 149 |

JoseBarea | 24 | DAL | 72 | G | -2.76 | 132 |

BrandonBass | 23 | DAL | 80 | F | -3.24 | 85 |

AntoineWright | 24 | DAL | 79 | G | -3.08 | 67 |

RyanHollins | 24 | DAL | 84 | C | -2.01 | 40 |

JamesSingleton | 27 | DAL | 80 | F | -1.15 | 18 |

GeraldGreen | 23 | DAL | 80 | F | -4.13 | 12 |

MattCarroll | 28 | DAL | 78 | G | -3.21 | 11 |

Dallas | 5.63 | 0.683 |

San Antonio in 4 | 1.4% |

Dallas in 4 | 16.6% |

San Antonio in 5 | 5.0% |

*Dallas in 5* | 21.4% |

San Antonio in 6 | 5.4% |

Dallas in 6 | 25.8% |

San Antonio in 7 | 10.9% |

Dallas in 7 | 13.5% |

**4. Portland vs. 5. Houston**

BrandonRoy | 24 | POR | 78 | G | 4.82 | 238 |

LaMarcusAldridge | 23 | POR | 83 | F | 0.78 | 237 |

SteveBlake | 28 | POR | 75 | G | 0.36 | 231 |

TravisOutlaw | 24 | POR | 81 | F | -0.78 | 170 |

JoelPrzybilla | 29 | POR | 85 | C | -0.34 | 162 |

RudyFernandez | 23 | POR | 78 | G | 2.05 | 162 |

GregOden | 21 | POR | 84 | C | 1.06 | 96 |

NicolasBatum | 20 | POR | 80 | F | 0.55 | 63 |

ChanningFrye | 25 | POR | 83 | F | -3.08 | 36 |

SergioRodriguez | 22 | POR | 75 | G | -1.24 | 27 |

JerrydBayless | 20 | POR | 75 | G | -4.01 | 11 |

MichaelRuffin | 32 | POR | 81 | F | -0.50 | 5 |

Portland | 5.23 | 0.670 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

ShaneBattier | 30 | HOU | 80 | F | 1.78 | 236 |

RonArtest | 29 | HOU | 78 | F | 3.35 | 221 |

YaoMing | 28 | HOU | 90 | C | 2.50 | 216 |

LuisScola | 28 | HOU | 81 | F | 0.62 | 200 |

AaronBrooks | 24 | HOU | 72 | G | -1.55 | 188 |

KyleLowry | 22 | HOU | 72 | G | 0.94 | 115 |

VonWafer | 23 | HOU | 77 | G | -2.16 | 107 |

CarlLandry | 25 | HOU | 81 | F | -0.41 | 93 |

ChuckHayes | 25 | HOU | 78 | F | 0.38 | 33 |

DikembeMutombo | 42 | HOU | 86 | C | -1.92 | 20 |

BrianCook | 28 | HOU | 81 | F | -3.14 | 5 |

BrentBarry | 37 | HOU | 78 | G | 0.02 | 4 |

JamesWhite | 26 | HOU | 79 | G | -2.32 | 2 |

Houston | 4.60 | 0.649 |

Portland in 4 | 6.9% |

Houston in 4 | 4.8% |

Portland in 5 | 16.9% |

Houston in 5 | 8.6% |

Portland in 6 | 14.4% |

*Houston in 6* | 16.5% |

Portland in 7 | 19.8% |

Houston in 7 | 12.0% |

Hey, that's not very bad, to be honest. I should have used this method for the Stat Geek Smackdown! For the curious, here's what it predicts for Round 2, assuming the same distribution of minutes for each team as in Round 1:

**East**

**1. Cleveland vs. 4. Atlanta**

Cleveland in 4 | 45.0% |

Atlanta in 4 | 0.1% |

Cleveland in 5 | 35.4% |

Atlanta in 5 | 0.2% |

Cleveland in 6 | 12.4% |

Atlanta in 6 | 0.7% |

Cleveland in 7 | 5.4% |

Atlanta in 7 | 0.7% |

**2. Boston vs. 3. Orlando**

Boston in 4 | 4.4% |

Orlando in 4 | 7.4% |

Boston in 5 | 12.3% |

Orlando in 5 | 12.2% |

Boston in 6 | 11.5% |

Orlando in 6 | 20.5% |

Boston in 7 | 18.0% |

Orlando in 7 | 13.7% |

**West**

**1. Los Angeles vs. 5. Houston**

L.A. in 4 | 22.2% |

Houston in 4 | 0.8% |

L.A. in 5 | 32.2% |

Houston in 5 | 1.7% |

L.A. in 6 | 18.7% |

Houston in 6 | 4.8% |

L.A. in 7 | 15.2% |

Houston in 7 | 4.4% |

**2. Denver vs. 6. Dallas**

*(Denver already won Game 1)*

Denver in 4 | 7.2% |

Denver in 5 | 17.6% |

Dallas in 5 | 8.0% |

Denver in 6 | 13.7% |

Dallas in 6 | 18.7% |

Denver in 7 | 19.5% |

Dallas in 7 | 15.4% |

May 4th, 2009 at 9:18 am

Those are interesting results. I actually think the method got a little undermined by players trying to fight through injuries and simple matchups.

Metrics don't account for Houston being a matchup nightmare for Portland. Metrics don't account for Kenyon Martin single covering David West or for Tyson Chandler's production being impinged by injury. Metrics can't account for Gordon finding 7th gear against Boston or to understand what exactly it means to the Celts to only have 2 legitimate bigs left in their line-up.

Considering all the factors that SPM can't anticipate, those results are very solid.

May 4th, 2009 at 2:17 pm

How do you convert +/- to win%?

May 4th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

For 2009, WPct ~ .49869 + (.0327 * Efficiency Differential).

May 4th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

Interesting that the team without HCA is more likely to win in six than seven. I'm curious if that matches real world results.

May 5th, 2009 at 10:57 am

Gerrit - That matches the conventional wisdom regarding playoff upsets, but I don't know if that's actually how it works out in the real world.

Top of my head that does tend to be true though. Lakers beat the the #1 seed Blazers in 6 in 1991. Bulls beat the East leading Knicks in 6 in 1993. Cavs beat the #1 seed Pistons in 6 to make the finals a couple of years ago.

May 5th, 2009 at 1:11 pm

Yeah, I don't have the data on-hand, but the underlying formula can be found here:

http://www.whowins.com/formulae/probformulae.html

Intuitively it makes sense -- given that HCA is so important, if an underdog is going to win a series, they're probably going to steal a road game and make the most of their games at home. When it comes down to a Game 6, up 3-2 at home, that's obviously your best chance to take the series; lose there, and you're back on the road for a do-or-die Game 7 with the odds heavily stacked against you.

May 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

"Hey, thatâ€™s not very bad, to be honest."

You almost did too well!

My test of the hypothesis that your distributions were the "true" ones produced a p-value of 0.945 (where 0 = your distributions are crap and 1 = you were incredibly lucky or you cheated). Which, if my code is right, suggests your predictive success may be unsustainable... (Or maybe I just chose a test statistic flukily friendly to you.)

Unrealistic wish: that the Stat Geek Smackdown required you to submit probability distributions -- then it would be a much truer test of predictive skill.

May 5th, 2009 at 9:33 pm

Doing some simple arithmetic shows the Magic have a 53.8% of beating the Celtics in the Semifinals, which makes sense, given that conventional wisdom and evaluation of different metrics supported the notion the series would be a toss-up. Good stuff, Neil.