Predicting Round 3 With SPM
Posted by Neil Paine on May 19, 2009
Using the technique I introduced a few weeks ago, here's what Statistical +/- sees in the cards for the Conference Finals:
East - 1. Cleveland vs. 3. Orlando
| Player | Ag | Tm | Ht | Pos | Skill | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DelonteWest | 25 | CLE | 76 | G | 0.51 | 321.0 |
| LeBronJames | 24 | CLE | 80 | F | 12.76 | 314.3 |
| MoWilliams | 26 | CLE | 73 | G | 0.79 | 287.6 |
| AndersonVarejao | 26 | CLE | 82 | F | 0.64 | 245.3 |
| ZydrunasIlgauskas | 33 | CLE | 87 | C | -0.34 | 230.0 |
| JoeSmith | 33 | CLE | 82 | F | -1.91 | 166.6 |
| DanielGibson | 22 | CLE | 74 | G | -1.25 | 101.9 |
| WallySzczerbiak | 31 | CLE | 79 | F | -1.53 | 92.6 |
| BenWallace | 34 | CLE | 81 | F | 1.15 | 88.3 |
| SashaPavlovic | 25 | CLE | 80 | G | -2.94 | 38.0 |
| DarnellJackson | 23 | CLE | 81 | F | -3.35 | 25.0 |
| TarenceKinsey | 24 | CLE | 78 | G | -2.97 | 9.4 |
| Cavs | 9.83 | 0.820 | ||||
| RashardLewis | 29 | ORL | 82 | F | 3.38 | 521.5 |
| HedoTurkoglu | 29 | ORL | 82 | F | 2.44 | 481.7 |
| DwightHoward | 23 | ORL | 83 | C | 5.39 | 457.9 |
| RaferAlston | 32 | ORL | 74 | G | 1.38 | 393.2 |
| MickaelPietrus | 26 | ORL | 78 | G | -0.39 | 306.7 |
| CourtneyLee | 23 | ORL | 77 | G | -1.46 | 272.5 |
| J.J.Redick | 24 | ORL | 76 | G | -2.55 | 251.8 |
| AnthonyJohnson | 34 | ORL | 75 | G | -2.08 | 198.7 |
| MarcinGortat | 24 | ORL | 84 | F | -0.50 | 152.3 |
| TonyBattie | 32 | ORL | 83 | C | -3.47 | 73.5 |
| AdonalFoyle | 33 | ORL | 82 | C | -2.50 | 3.9 |
| TyronnLue | 31 | ORL | 72 | G | -3.29 | 3.9 |
| JeremyRichardson | 24 | ORL | 78 | G | -4.96 | 2.4 |
| Magic | 6.43 | 0.709 |
| Cleveland in 4 | 16.8% |
| Orlando in 4 | 1.4% |
| Cleveland in 5 | 28.6% |
| Orlando in 5 | 2.9% |
| Cleveland in 6 | 18.8% |
| Orlando in 6 | 7.3% |
| Cleveland in 7 | 17.8% |
| Orlando in 7 | 6.3% |
| CLE wins series: | 82.1% |
|---|---|
| ORL wins series: | 17.9% |
West - 1. Los Angeles vs. 2. Denver
| Player | Ag | Tm | Ht | Pos | Skill | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CarmeloAnthony | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | 2.17 | 379.4 |
| ChaunceyBillups | 32 | DEN | 75 | G | 4.29 | 375.0 |
| NeneHilario | 26 | DEN | 83 | F | 1.70 | 332.6 |
| KenyonMartin | 31 | DEN | 81 | F | -0.25 | 329.7 |
| J.R.Smith | 23 | DEN | 78 | G | 1.78 | 269.2 |
| ChrisAndersen | 30 | DEN | 82 | F | 1.36 | 190.7 |
| DahntayJones | 28 | DEN | 78 | G | -3.23 | 186.2 |
| AnthonyCarter | 33 | DEN | 73 | G | -1.18 | 166.0 |
| LinasKleiza | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | -2.16 | 116.1 |
| JohanPetro | 23 | DEN | 84 | C | -4.12 | 22.7 |
| RenaldoBalkman | 24 | DEN | 80 | F | 0.92 | 16.9 |
| JasonHart | 30 | DEN | 75 | G | -3.33 | 15.5 |
| Nuggets | 5.16 | 0.668 | ||||
| KobeBryant | 30 | LAL | 78 | G | 6.44 | 468.9 |
| PauGasol | 28 | LAL | 84 | F | 2.99 | 466.8 |
| LamarOdom | 29 | LAL | 82 | F | 2.42 | 379.5 |
| TrevorAriza | 23 | LAL | 80 | F | 2.45 | 360.4 |
| DerekFisher | 34 | LAL | 73 | G | -0.34 | 289.5 |
| ShannonBrown | 23 | LAL | 76 | G | -3.50 | 191.0 |
| AndrewBynum | 21 | LAL | 84 | C | 0.69 | 186.3 |
| SashaVujacic | 24 | LAL | 79 | G | 1.01 | 172.3 |
| LukeWalton | 28 | LAL | 80 | F | -1.76 | 156.5 |
| JordanFarmar | 22 | LAL | 74 | G | -2.10 | 145.2 |
| JoshPowell | 26 | LAL | 81 | F | -5.68 | 55.4 |
| D.J.Mbenga | 28 | LAL | 84 | C | -1.61 | 8.4 |
| Lakers | 8.41 | 0.774 |
| Los Angeles in 4 | 14.6% |
| Denver in 4 | 1.7% |
| Los Angeles in 5 | 26.7% |
| Denver in 5 | 3.6% |
| Los Angeles in 6 | 18.4% |
| Denver in 6 | 8.7% |
| Los Angeles in 7 | 18.8% |
| Denver in 7 | 7.4% |
| LAL wins series: | 78.6% |
|---|---|
| DEN wins series: | 21.4% |
May 19th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I really like these SPM predictions Neil. Although some conspiracy theorists out there would suggest that the chances of the Cavs and Lakers each getting to the Finals is actually 100%, thanks to the "evil" commissioner Mr. Stern. :)
In your experience how do you think SPM compares to other box-score evaluation methods like ORtg/DRtg in making predictions?
May 19th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Neil, any interest in seeing what the Lakers vs. Nuggets series would look using both teams' stats post-A.I./Billups trade? It seems relevant.
May 19th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Anon: I won our little predict-off at APBRmetrics using it, but I haven't studied it extensively -- I've definitely maximized SPM's predictive power over the past few months, but we'll have to do an extensive retrodiction test this summer with various metrics (SPM, Win Shares, PER, Wins Produced, etc.).
Schtevie: Going just by stats after the Billups trade is kinda what this exercise is trying to avoid -- the "true SPM skill" is a weighted average of the past 3 years, and it's supposed to represent impact independent of whether you're playing with Chauncey Billups or Allen Iverson (obviously you can't get completely away from context, but in theory that's what you want to do).