11 Responses to “2010 Playoff Series Preview: Cleveland vs. Chicago”

1. Mike G Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 1:43 pm

   "Best Pure Shooter: Mo Williams"
   What's this mean?
   player eFG% TS%
   LeBron .545 - .604
   Varejao .573 - .598
   Williams .535 - .580

   LeBron assists 170% as frequently as Mo and shoots 150% as often.
   AND he shoots better.

2. Mike G Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 1:53 pm

   "Best Pure Shooter: Jannero Pargo"

   Never mind. It doesn't mean anything.
   http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=xer5N

3. Neil Paine Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 2:05 pm

   Pure shooting touch/skill. Basically FT% skill, with some consideration given to 3-point%. If you lock LeBron and Mo Williams in a gym and make them shoot nothing but jumpers from 15 feet and out, Williams will make more. An inordinate amount of LBJ's high %'s come from inside drives, dunks, and layups, so eFG% and TS% aren't the most accurate barometers of pure shooting ability.

4. Neil Paine Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 2:11 pm

   Pargo shot 93% from the line and is a career 86% shooter from the stripe, 35% from 3-point (he shot 39% a few years ago). He clearly is a talented pure shooter, it's just that he doesn't use it in a practical manner -- he thinks he's a scorer for some reason, so he does nothing but force low-percentage contested J's. He shouldn't be a 25% usage guy. He should be a shooting specialist.

5. Mike G Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 2:37 pm

   "If you lock LeBron and Mo Williams in a gym and make them shoot nothing but jumpers from 15 feet and out, Williams will make more."

   I guess they also aren't guarding one another. In other words, nothing to do with NBA skills.

   If you lock Deshawn Stevenson in the gym by himself, he'll be the "best pure offensive rebounder" in the league, just because he's the worst shooter in the league, and he'll get all the rebounds. This, too, means nothing.

   I thought Reggie Miller was a great "pure shooter", because he could:
   - get a shot whenever one was needed
   - select the best shot available
   - hit a high % under any conditions
   etc.

   Saying a guy is a great shooter when he shoots a good shot, in spite of the fact he almost never shoots a good shot ... what is that saying?

6. Neil Paine Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 2:52 pm

   It's a paradox. Shaq in his prime hit 60% of his shots, but that doesn't mean he was the best pure shooter in the league, it just meant he was a beast who was unguardable and could get a really high-percentage shot whenever he wanted. Make Shaq move outside a 7-foot radius of the basket, and he's no longer making anywhere near that percentage. But I think players' shooting percentages are a function of shot selection + pure shooting ability. Pargo is the anti-Shaq -- good pure ability, awful selection. Shaq has bad pure ability, but great selection, because he never shoots outside close-range, he never has to because you can't keep him from getting that shot. So it's on a coach to utilize the skills of his players optimally: you can practice and try to improve skills, but the return on investment is probably pretty low there -- Shaq is never going to be a great pure shooter even if that's all he practiced. You can reap more rewards by changing shot selection, and that's where Pargo fails. He should be in a role that maximizes his productivity, and his current role is obviously not that. Put him in a role where he's a shooting specialist, his eFG% will go up, and you'll be saying he's a good shooter. But he won't have changed at all from an ability standpoint, he'll just have changed his shot selection.

7. Mike G Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 3:17 pm

   "Make Shaq move outside a 7-foot radius of the basket, and he's no longer making anywhere near that percentage. "
   I don't understand this. You are referring to the ability of players to make shots with no interference, as though that were "pure" shooting ability. You think Shaq, with no one guarding him, cannot make 60% of shots from 8 feet away? I suspect he makes close to 60% from twice that distance.

   Craig Hodges was the best 3-pt shooter in the league, including the year after he last played. He didn't miss a shot that year.

   Shaq's prime was distinctly the 2000 season. His .578 TS% was 10th in the league. After Mutombo, Miller, Barry, Mourning, Stockton, Hornacek, Patterson, Steve Smith, and Malone. All these guys were better than all the others at some range.

   Good luck convincing anyone the worst shooter on a team is the best 'pure shooter' on the team. An NBA "shot" is not something you might do once in a while, or something you did several years ago. It's what you can actually get.

8. Neil Paine Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 3:33 pm

   Okay, I mixed the metaphors there. Shaq hit 60% of shots around the basket with defensive interference; he would not shoot anywhere near as well if (still with defensive interference) you moved him out of dunk/baby hook range.

   Moving on, how do you think players practice their shooting? It's not all scrimmages. The majority of drills are done with little or no interference. The difference between your performance there and your performance in games is "what you can get" vs. live competition, but a lot of that stems from choices -- the player's, the coach's, etc. A pure shooter in a scheme where they run him nothing but off-ball screens could shoot a high percentage, but if he takes those shots off the dribble instead, he won't make as many. "What you can get" can change based on your role and the system. Your talent level hasn't changed, but your eFG% sure has, and the Mike G's of the world suddenly laud your shooting ability.

9. Mike G Says:
   April 16th, 2010 at 3:53 pm

   Don't know any other Mike G's; but here in reverse chronology are players who have attempted as many FG (381) with the lowest eFG% since the previous entry.
   2010 Pargo Chi .396
   2008 C Brewer Min .382
   2005 McLeod Uta .373
   2003 Tskishvili Den .340
   1965 E Bryant NY .333
   1961 Loscutoff Bos .301
   etc.

   These are all historically-bad shooters. Not counting what they might have done outside of NBA games.

10. Trev Says:
    April 19th, 2010 at 6:48 am

    Just so I understand it, is there a methodology for picking Best Pure Shooter, Best Defender, etc.? Or is this your opinion? I'm fine either way but I'd like to know.

11. Neil Paine Says:
    April 19th, 2010 at 1:09 pm

    Sure,

    Best Pure Shooter: Weighted 3-yr FT% (6-3-1) with the option to pick the better 3pt shooter if two teammates are close
    Best 3 Pt. Shooter: Weighted 3-yr 3P% with the option to pick the higher-volume 3PA shooter if two teammates are close
    Best Scorer: Pts/36 min
    Best Rebounder: TRB%
    Best Passer: Ast%
    Best Defender: Combo of On/Off DRtg +/- and Basketball on Paper DRtg
    Who to Foul: Worst FT% by rotation member (starter or backup)