Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #8 Indiana
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Chicago Bulls
62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)
Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Derrick Rose | 81 | 3026 | 5.38 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.208 | 23.5 |
| SG | Keith Bogans | 82 | 1461 | -0.90 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.118 | 9.0 |
| SF | Luol Deng | 82 | 3208 | 1.69 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 0.149 | 15.5 |
| PF | Carlos Boozer | 59 | 1882 | 2.77 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.149 | 18.8 |
| C | Joakim Noah | 48 | 1576 | 3.77 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.205 | 18.8 |
| SG | Ronnie Brewer | 81 | 1781 | 1.59 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.147 | 13.8 |
| PF | Taj Gibson | 80 | 1742 | -0.72 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.143 | 14.3 |
| SF | Kyle Korver | 82 | 1649 | 0.55 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.149 | 13.0 |
| PG | C.J. Watson | 82 | 1091 | -0.69 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.093 | 12.8 |
| C | Omer Asik | 82 | 989 | -1.49 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 0.130 | 11.8 |
| C | Kurt Thomas | 52 | 1178 | 0.54 | -0.6 | 1.0 | 0.131 | 10.0 |
| SF | Rasual Butler | 47 | 770 | -7.18 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -0.009 | 6.2 |
| PF | Brian Scalabrine | 18 | 88 | -2.58 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 0.071 | 6.5 |
| PG | John Lucas | 2 | 10 | -15.05 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.121 | -0.1 |
| PG | Jannero Pargo | 0 | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Indiana Pacers
37-45, 2nd in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Jim O'Brien (17-27), Frank Vogel (20-18)
PTS/G: 99.8 (13th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 100.9 (17th of 30)
SRS: -1.38 (19th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.7 (6th of 30)
Off Rtg: 104.8 (23rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 106.0 (12th of 30)
Expected W-L: 38-44 (19th of 30)
Arena: Conseco Fieldhouse ▪ Attendance: 555,077 (30th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Darren Collison | 79 | 2360 | -0.20 | -1.2 | -1.9 | 0.087 | 15.6 |
| SG | Paul George | 61 | 1265 | 1.07 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.091 | 13.0 |
| SF | Danny Granger | 79 | 2763 | 2.63 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.121 | 17.8 |
| PF | Tyler Hansbrough | 70 | 1535 | -1.22 | -1.4 | -1.1 | 0.118 | 16.4 |
| C | Roy Hibbert | 81 | 2244 | -1.55 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.077 | 15.9 |
| SG | Brandon Rush | 67 | 1754 | -2.07 | -2.7 | -2.0 | 0.070 | 10.6 |
| PF | Josh McRoberts | 72 | 1597 | 1.57 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.147 | 16.0 |
| C | Jeff Foster | 56 | 940 | 0.34 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 0.152 | 14.3 |
| PG | A.J. Price | 50 | 795 | -2.84 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.020 | 10.7 |
| SG | Dahntay Jones | 45 | 589 | -1.11 | 0.3 | -2.4 | 0.102 | 13.7 |
| SF | Mike Dunleavy | 61 | 1683 | 1.35 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.128 | 14.5 |
| PF | James Posey | 49 | 839 | -0.47 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.056 | 7.5 |
| PG | T.J. Ford | 41 | 773 | -2.99 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.011 | 9.9 |
| C | Solomon Jones | 39 | 528 | -4.34 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 0.042 | 8.5 |
| SG | Lance Stephenson | 12 | 115 | -7.35 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.093 | 5.5 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | CHI | IND | Prob | Games | CHI | IND | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 35.9% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 54.2% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 31.4% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33.1% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 16.6% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8.9% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 10.6% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3.1% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.3% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 2.1% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.7% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.3% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | |
| CHI | 94.6% | CHI | 99.3% | |||||
| IND | 5.4% | IND | 0.7% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)