BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 11, 2011)
Posted by Neil Paine on March 11, 2011
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on March 10, 2011:
|1||2||San Antonio Spurs||W||SW||52||12||0.813||4.06||4||5||-3.06||6||7||7.12|
|2||4||Los Angeles Lakers||W||P||46||20||0.697||4.34||2||2||-2.58||8||9||6.92|
|9||9||Oklahoma City Thunder||W||NW||40||23||0.635||3.70||5||6||0.70||16||16||3.00|
|10||11||New Orleans Hornets||W||SW||38||29||0.567||-1.62||22||22||-4.01||5||5||2.39|
|14||16||Portland Trail Blazers||W||NW||37||27||0.578||0.86||12||13||-0.40||14||14||1.26|
|15||14||New York Knickerbockers||E||A||34||30||0.531||3.38||7||8||2.54||23||20||0.84|
|21||23||Los Angeles Clippers||W||P||25||40||0.385||-0.96||21||21||1.94||19||22||-2.90|
|22||21||Golden State Warriors||W||P||28||36||0.438||0.76||13||12||3.70||27||27||-2.94|
|27||28||New Jersey Nets||E||A||20||43||0.317||-4.02||26||26||2.20||21||21||-6.23|
To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:37 am
Something is flawed with your rankings, Neil. How are the Lakers ahead of the Heat, even though the Heat swept them? These rankings don't mirror reality - change your formula.
*end sarcasm* :)
March 11th, 2011 at 10:40 am
Ha, I was thinking the same thing when I saw the results for the first time.
March 11th, 2011 at 10:49 am
Not to mention the Mavs being 20-3 in their last games, with all losses by only a point, yet still being ranked so low.
March 11th, 2011 at 11:18 am
All year, it seems that the Heat have been ahead of everyone else in the EC in games played (a lot more teams are tied or close with them in the WC). They've currently played 3 more games than the Celts, which seems pretty big to me. That means a few extra off days in the last few weeks, which might be meaningful. Is such variance normal for this time of year? Do you think this is a function of trying to get the team out in front of crowds early on? I don't know what the norm is and this very well may be it, but it seems odd that there are still 2 or 3 or 4 games played separating teams this late in the year. It would seem ideal to have everyone on roughly the same pace. Anyone have more info or a better sense of this?
March 11th, 2011 at 11:26 am
#4: I've got some.
I looked at back-to-backs and 4-games-in-5-nights for every season since 1999, and thus the schedules are all in nice grid format and available on Google Spreadsheets, with markings on when and what type of B2B occurred. While my scope was only on full season schedules, I suppose one could eyeball or filter these by month and see if it has any relation to playoff success.
I did see a slight correlation between teams with overall less B2Bs played and winning championships, but whatever.
March 11th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
#4 - that type of difference in the schedule is very common, even up until the last month of action. # of games doesn't really balance out until the last two weeks, typically . . . if memory serves.
March 11th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Interesting sidebar about schedules and back to backs.
Dallas doesn't rank very high because they never blow teams out (Wednesday night against the Knicks being the exception). Before the Knicks game, the last blowout win for the Mavs was beating the Kings by sixteen - and SAC was on the second night of a road back to back. You have to go back to December to find one before that. This is part of a trend of Dallas out-performing the Pythagorean expectation in recent years.
That Dallas tends to win close games and doesn't get involved in many big victories raises some interesting questions. First of which, is this a real, persistent ability this team has? If it is, can it help them in the playoffs?
March 11th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
2/23 - Beat Utah by 19 at home (first game post-Deron Williams)
2/27 - Won @ Toronto by 18 (second night of b2b for Dallas)
Of course your point still stands. Dallas' Pythagorean wins have been below their actual wins for the last few seasons. My guess is that their Adjusted SRS will improve the last 17 games if Tyson Chandler can stay on the court (sick recently, foul trouble last night), and Rodrigue Beaubois can emulate his rookie performance with heavier minutes as he regains health.
March 11th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Should be an interesting race between Dallas and LA for the home-court, if LA's play continues and Dallas has room to improve. And an even better series if the presumptive favorite Lakers lose home-court and represent the three seed in that match-up.
March 11th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Man the bottom half of the western conference is way better than the bottom half of the eastern conference. To the tune of roughly 3.35 SRS points per team.
March 14th, 2011 at 5:33 pm
what strikes me is how the top 5 teams are a pretty tight cluster followed by a precipitous dropoff. Boston at #5 is closer to SA, than #6 Orlando is to boston, and 6-7, 7-8 and 8-9 are all dropoffs of around 3/4 point. By the time you get to the thunder at #9, there's a very significant difference from #5 Boston, enough that these ratings would favor the Celtics on the road. Same with #6 orlando vs. #10 NO. Basically nobody but Orlando or Dallas looks like a realistic shot to steal a best of 7 from any of the top 5 teams (unless the Heat really are tanking and this rating is no longer representative of their strength).
March 15th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Nice slap down by the Heat over the Spurs. I didn't see if Tim Duncan announced if the game was over in the 1st half, though. NO excuses for the Spurs. I wonder if Tim Legler found a way to marginalize this win, too. The Heat would LOVE to get the Celtics right now, I'm sure. Boston is sleeping out there, struggling to score 80 points against the Bucks, Sixers and Nets. I swear Doc Rivers looked like he was up all night before the Nets game. Maybe they want to give back their game checks. Zero intensity. They better wake up or they'll be the 3 seed.