2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: Phoenix vs. San Antonio
Posted by Neil Paine on May 1, 2010
2010 Playoffs Home ▪ 2010 Playoff Previews
3. Phoenix Suns
Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers
Four Factors:
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 0.546 | 1 | 0.136 | 17 | 0.276 | 7 | 0.240 | 10 |
| Phoenix Suns - Opp | 0.491 | 11 | 0.116 | 30 | 0.292 | 29 | 0.224 | 16 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stoudemire | 27 | 82 | C | 117.5 | 26.1 | 108.9 | -0.09 | 23.4 | 55.9 | 16.7 | 77.1 | 4.8 | 14.5 | -5.58 | 50.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | 18.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Steve Nash | 35 | 75 | PG | 120.8 | 26.1 | 113.8 | -3.05 | 17.5 | 54.0 | 42.6 | 93.8 | 50.9 | 21.4 | 11.27 | 22.8 | 29.5 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| J. Richardson | 29 | 78 | SG | 116.1 | 19.4 | 110.6 | -0.89 | 17.5 | 52.8 | 39.3 | 73.9 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 0.13 | 18.4 | 40.1 | 3.9 | 13.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Channing Frye | 26 | 83 | PF | 119.6 | 15.7 | 107.9 | 1.46 | 14.5 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 81.0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 0.11 | 17.2 | 55.8 | 3.6 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Grant Hill | 37 | 80 | SF | 114.2 | 16.6 | 109.9 | 0.18 | 13.1 | 48.3 | 43.8 | 81.7 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 0.85 | 35.7 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 16.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Jared Dudley | 24 | 79 | SF | 123.6 | 13.7 | 110.7 | -0.36 | 11.9 | 46.1 | 45.8 | 75.4 | 7.9 | 12.6 | 0.44 | 28.2 | 53.5 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| L. Barbosa | 27 | 75 | SG | 105.3 | 23.3 | 112.2 | -2.51 | 18.6 | 48.5 | 32.4 | 87.7 | 12.5 | 12.7 | -0.42 | 20.0 | 37.3 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Louis Amundson | 27 | 81 | PF | 113.1 | 15.4 | 106.6 | 2.30 | 11.1 | 55.3 | 0.0 | 54.5 | 3.7 | 16.0 | -3.11 | 44.6 | 0.4 | 13.1 | 19.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 |
| Goran Dragic | 23 | 76 | PG | 109.7 | 21.9 | 111.6 | -1.97 | 15.4 | 48.8 | 39.4 | 73.6 | 24.1 | 20.1 | 2.40 | 32.4 | 38.3 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Jarron Collins | 31 | 83 | C | 93.4 | 10.0 | 111.6 | 0.24 | 4.6 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 2.9 | 19.4 | -2.31 | 80.6 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 16.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Earl Clark | 22 | 82 | SF | 88.7 | 21.1 | 111.0 | -2.04 | 12.8 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 72.2 | 7.8 | 14.3 | -2.35 | 23.8 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Dwayne Jones | 26 | 83 | PF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 108.3 | 2.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Robin Lopez | 21 | 84 | C | 123.3 | 17.1 | 109.6 | 0.50 | 15.3 | 58.8 | 0.0 | 70.4 | 1.1 | 12.3 | -3.68 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 3.8 | 0.5 |
7. San Antonio Spurs
Coach: Gregg Popovich
SRS: 5.07 (4th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.7 (20th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.0 (9th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.5 (8th of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Dallas Mavericks
Four Factors:
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 0.515 | 7 | 0.129 | 11 | 0.268 | 13 | 0.219 | 20 |
| San Antonio Spurs - Opp | 0.483 | 4 | 0.121 | 28 | 0.237 | 4 | 0.214 | 10 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 33 | 83 | PF | 115.7 | 26.2 | 100.9 | 2.26 | 20.8 | 52.2 | 18.2 | 72.5 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 0.98 | 34.6 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 26.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| George Hill | 23 | 74 | PG | 114.9 | 18.6 | 106.5 | 0.28 | 15.4 | 50.5 | 39.9 | 77.2 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 2.18 | 32.1 | 25.5 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Manu Ginobili | 32 | 78 | SG | 118.1 | 26.2 | 103.8 | 0.29 | 21.0 | 48.1 | 37.7 | 87.0 | 28.2 | 14.3 | 4.31 | 39.3 | 38.8 | 3.8 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| R. Jefferson | 29 | 79 | SF | 110.0 | 17.6 | 106.3 | 0.60 | 14.4 | 51.5 | 31.6 | 73.5 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 0.01 | 37.0 | 24.1 | 2.7 | 13.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Tony Parker | 27 | 74 | PG | 106.4 | 26.2 | 108.5 | -1.89 | 18.8 | 49.7 | 29.4 | 75.6 | 30.9 | 17.2 | 3.61 | 34.4 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| A. McDyess | 35 | 81 | PF | 102.7 | 15.8 | 102.9 | 1.53 | 10.0 | 48.1 | 0.0 | 63.2 | 7.7 | 16.2 | -1.46 | 13.3 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 21.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Matt Bonner | 29 | 82 | PF | 116.9 | 16.4 | 104.4 | 0.62 | 14.3 | 53.9 | 39.0 | 72.9 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 0.55 | 12.9 | 62.1 | 5.3 | 16.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| DeJuan Blair | 20 | 79 | PF | 108.1 | 21.6 | 100.7 | 2.19 | 15.6 | 55.8 | 0.0 | 54.7 | 7.1 | 18.2 | -4.60 | 32.5 | 0.4 | 16.0 | 25.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Roger Mason | 29 | 77 | SG | 100.8 | 16.5 | 107.0 | -0.84 | 12.0 | 45.3 | 33.3 | 79.4 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 2.13 | 6.9 | 53.2 | 0.9 | 11.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Keith Bogans | 29 | 77 | SG | 106.3 | 10.9 | 106.1 | 0.82 | 8.1 | 49.0 | 35.7 | 74.0 | 8.5 | 16.4 | 0.66 | 16.8 | 65.8 | 1.9 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 23 | 83 | C | 115.4 | 24.1 | 100.3 | 3.03 | 22.3 | 63.6 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 2.1 | 19.7 | -8.28 | 85.5 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 27.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Garrett Temple | 23 | 78 | SG | 99.1 | 19.8 | 106.6 | -0.12 | 14.7 | 48.4 | 35.1 | 70.0 | 9.6 | 21.1 | -3.89 | 49.5 | 36.6 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
Season Series
| Suns win series 4-0 |
|---|
| Game 1 @ PHO - Suns 111, Spurs 102 |
| Game 2 @ PHO - Suns 110, Spurs 102 |
| Game 3 @ SA - Suns 110, Spurs 96 |
| Game 4 @ SA - Suns 107, Spurs 101 |
| Picks | Most Likely | Second Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| SPM "True Skill" Projection says: | Spurs in 6 | Spurs in 5 |
| SRS says: | Spurs in 6 | Suns in 7 |
| I say: | Spurs in 6 | Spurs in 7 |
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:53 pm
My adjusted team efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back to team efficiency based on the expected lineups/roster.
San Antonio is the top team in the West according to my calculations.
PHO vs SAS
4 to 0 2.9%
4 to 1 9.6%
4 to 2 8.9%
4 to 3 16.6%
3 to 4 13.8%
2 to 4 23.8%
1 to 4 14.7%
0 to 4 9.8%
Margin
6.52 8.83
PHO SAS
38.0% 62.0%